Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #QE

Most recents (19)

.#Markets keep pivoting off of a great deal of noise running through the #media, but as we’ve indicated for some time, it’s worth taking a step back to consider the power behind #monetary rescue programs and their influences.
Critics of the efficacy of quantitative easing (#QE) often contend that asset purchase proceeds remain stranded in the #financial #economy
but the transfer of #capital to #MainStreet actors; amounts to the first direct payment of money creation from the #Fed into the real #economy since WW2, catalyzing broad #money and incremental #NGDP growth, and Chair Powell also indicated those purchases won’t run off.
Read 6 tweets
Cet illuminé du capital est transparent et il faut l'écouter pour comprendre les malheurs de la société
1/ la notion d'argent est aussi simple que l'eau, et elle suit la pente la plus favorable : le profit
2/ il n'est pas question de morale
3/ c'est comme ça et on doit l'accepter
4/ Le capital est roi, le capital est au-dessus de l'homme : s'il faut geler les salaires ou licencier pour satisfaire le capital alors il faut le faire.
Ces 3 minutes de @ssoumier sont un concentré de ce qu'est le système capitaliste : une dictature qui place les chiffres au-dessus de l'homme.
Peu importe l'utilité sociale ou écologique de n'importe quel projet ou décision économique, seule la rentabilité, le profit compte.
Read 14 tweets
A THREAD on my new paper with @arebucci1 on the impact of #COVID-19-related central bank long-term asset purchases of sovereign debt (#QuantitativeEasing) on government bond yields in both Developed and #EmergingMarkets (1/n) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
We analyze 20 #COVID-19 QE announcements made by 17 central banks (9 DM central banks, 11 EM central banks) using the classic event study framework of FFJR(1969), extending work of Vissing-Jorgensen and Krishnamurthy (2011) and Swanson (2011) who analyze Great Recession QE (2/n)
Starting with the Fed which led the pack with new QE: the 1-day impact of the Fed's $700 bn MBS+Treasury #QE 3/16 announcement on the US 10-year yield was -0.21% and "unlimited" QE announcement on 3/23 was -0.16%, only slightly smaller than past #GreatRecession era QE (3/n)
Read 9 tweets
Is the #BVerfG verdict really that bad? Can’t the #ECB just write a letter explaining why PSPP is proportional and thus legal under German constitution? /thread
Well, yes it can. And it will, I am sure. No reason to stonewall the Court at this point. But the problem is: the #BVerfG has already set quite a few limits on what it considers proportional. /2
The main criticism is that neither the #ECB nor the ECJ did a proper analysis (or at least not use that analysis) on the economic policy implications of the PSPP. The verdict reads quite harsh on that omission, esp re: the ECJ. /3
Read 10 tweets
A short #thread on the #Karlsruhe decision on the legality of the @ecb's #QE #PSPP ... (NOT #PEPP or #Covid QE)

My overall assessment ...

It's not good ... 3 or 4 /10 where 10/10 would have been carte blanche for the #ECB and 0/0 "QE is verboten", a disaster for the #Eurozone
First the headline bombshell "ECB decisions on the Public Sector Purchase Programme exceed EU competences" is a BIG deal ... the @BVerfG has directly accused the @ecb of violating the #EU constitution and the @EUCourtPress and #German government of complicity in this violation!
More precisely, #BverfG says the #ECB violated Art 5(1) and 5(4) on "#proportionality" by failing to demonstrate that it considered the "economic effects" of #QE before launching it, and that #Germany and the #ECJ failed to hold the Governing Council of the #ECB to this standard!
Read 9 tweets
#BeyondHeadlines: There are not-so-obvious global reasons why the #OilMarketCrash is NOT good for #India.

Heavy #QE/ currency pressure + Intense #geopolitical tension

= #India, importer & friend to all oil producers, in the crosshairs.

Thread on these impacts of #OilPrice 👇 Image
US #oilprice crashed negative for the 1st time in history. West Texas Intermediate (a US crude) traded as low as -$40.32 a barrel. So far the bulk of the losses are in US crude, -200 to -1000%! Global (Brent) crude has not gone down as much because global storage still exists.
#COVID19 #lockdown has sharply cut all travel & thus demand for oil. Excess supply of oil resulted in a shortage of #storage space, esp in North America. As they & slowly the rest of the world run out of storage, the demand for future oil contracts (futures) goes down sharply
Read 11 tweets
@VOLG_DE_DATA @wmiddelkoop 1) This is a very hard question to answer. US #gold has not been audited since the 1950's and there are rumours that much of the gold in Fort Knox has been replaced by fakes. Rob Kirby claims to "know folks who have copies of the original shipping docs".

marketoracle.co.uk/Article14996.h…
@VOLG_DE_DATA @wmiddelkoop 2) Hence the question to Q, with his interesting replay that the #US has the #gold and that it shall destroy the #FED.

What we know is that currently the #FED is printing dollars #Weimar style, which can be expected to result in #hyperinflation.
@VOLG_DE_DATA @wmiddelkoop 3) Alan Greenspan warned about this a while ago and talked about returning to the #gold standard. Remarkably, he mentioned the time before 1913, when the #FED was established:

marketslant.com/articles/green…
Read 9 tweets
1/6 Corona may be the fuse triggering a systemic crisis. We already have 1) Disruption of supply chains 2) commodity slump 3) market corrections 4) oil wars
2/6 Next will be consumer demand collapse. Entire industrie from aviation to tourism will be hit.
3/6 The oil wars may trigger the meltdown in debtridden US shale. Disruption of Chinese industry may trigger collapse of debtridden Chinese SOCs and/ or banking sector
Read 8 tweets
"The Great Wall Street Housing Grab

Hundreds of thousands of single-family homes are now in the hands of giant companies — squeezing renters for revenue and putting the American dream even further out of reach."

#FedHistory #MissionAccomplished

archive.fo/wTRBR
Say hello to your new German landlord, America!
Or maybe you'd prefer someone from China? It's not like you can afford to compete with these buyers.
Read 23 tweets
Il @sole24ore ci ricorda che l’8 agosto #Salvini annuncia la #crisidigoverno che ha portato poi alla nascita del #governogiallorosso e le banche italiane guadagnano grazie al calo dello #spread la bellezza di 2.4 miliardi. Cosa torna e cosa no in questo articolo? (1/8) #thread
Ricordiamo intanto che lo #spread è la differenza fra quanto rende un #BTP a 10 anni e quanto invece un #Bund. L’inesattezza principale del @sole24ore sta prima di tutto qui. Non è lo spread ad incidere sul valore del portafoglio titoli ma il rendimento degli stessi (2/8)
Qualora lo #spread diminuisca perché aumenta il rendimento del #Bund mentre quello del #BTP rimane costante è chiaro che il valore del portafoglio titoli non si sposta di un centesimo. Questa precisazione all’articolo del @sole24ore è quindi doverosa. Ma andiamo avanti (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Hope you enjoy the weekend! 😀Deflation unfolding in economy. Stay tuned for my view on market and coming macro developments #HZupdates
Short term we may see a bounce in #AUDUSD, as wave 2 develops - which sets us up for strong wave 3 down #HZupdates
#OIL develops in Ending Diagonal, which sets a target <20USD before LT-bottom. Again - we could pot. see that LT-bottom in around early Spring 2020. The period from now - until then is the #DEFLATIONARY phase of the crisis. This is where liquidity (USD) is scarce #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets
++++Cosa sa la #Bce che noi non sappiamo? Nulla di buono. @ollirehn a @boersenzeitung : 'C'è bisogno di lanciare nuovi stimoli monetari, Bce si prepari al peggio'. E tassi Bund 10 anni scendono sotto tasso depositi Bce -0,40% +++++ bit.ly/2Javxgs #trading
@ollirehn @boersenzeitung @finanza_com @finanza_online @Borseit @pelias01 @AlienoGentile @carloalberto @ricpuglisi @albertobisin @monacelt @ollirehn : "Low inflation expectations are a 'great concern'; market based expectations are 'far too low'
Eurozone experiencing a longer phase of weaker growth, slowdown no longer temporary" VIA a @boersenzeitung In bocca al lupo #Lagarde
@ollirehn @boersenzeitung @finanza_com @finanza_online @Borseit @pelias01 @AlienoGentile @carloalberto @ricpuglisi @albertobisin @monacelt @ollirehn : "#ECB should prepare for stronger and prolonged slowdown, says better to prepare for the worst. ECB can change forward guidance, cut rates or resume #QE if needed VIA @boersenzeitung
Read 12 tweets
THREAD: 'Quantitative Easing (#QE) for the #Climate', summary of blogpost of @pdegrauwe from @LSEEcon, questioning:

'To what extent can the money created by the central bank be used to finance investments in the environment?'

Short answer: fully
"There is no restriction on what types of assets the @ecb can buy. Since 2015 when it started QE, the @ecb has mainly bought government bonds, but also corporate bonds from financial inst. The @ecb could, however, also purchase bonds [...] to finance environmental investments."
"A possible objection is [...]: If the @ecb buys these "environmental bonds", it will be involved in the decision-making process about which environmental investments should have a priority. [...] These are all questions that have to be settled by political authorities [...]."
Read 20 tweets
I titoli di Stato in circolazione al 31/12/2018 erano € 1.925 milioni. Cui sommare il debito di amministrazioni centrali, locali ed enti previdenziali contratto in altre forme. Secondo #Bankitalia ad ottobre 2018 il debito pubblico complessivo ammonta a € 2,3 miliardi (segue)
Secondo il rapporto sulla stabilità finanziaria emesso da #Bankitalia nel novembre 2018 il costo medio dello stock di debito pubblico in circolazione rappresentato da titoli ammontava al 2,7% annuo (segue)
Quanto sono costate le emissioni di titoli del debito pubblico nel 2018? I dati del #MEF riportano un dato medio dell’1,07% (segue)
Read 57 tweets
Last week in markets was truly exciting! Some important signals were provided - which sets us up for some truly great trades 😀Before all leaves FinTwit to relax and enjoy during Christmas - I will provide you with some #HZupdates. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD has been showing a lot of weakness. The LT-perspective is same as it has been for a very long time. Target of ~0.91 to be reached some time during 2019. Coming decline will bring about massive capitulation #HZupdates
#EURUSD - I have had 2 scenarios for how price will develop coming days/weeks. This scenario seems to hold most credibility. We could see small bounce next week - but soon EURUSD will crash in a strong wave lower. Great opportunity to go short is closing in #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
A cosa è servito (o non è servito) il #QE di #Draghi? In 7 grafici
wsj.com/articles/what-…
Ha influito sulla crescita? NO. Ciascun Paese è rimasto sul suo sentiero, con Italia piegata dai tagli di bilancio di Monti. La distanza dagli USA è pure lievemente cresciuta. #qe #draghi
Ha migliorato la disoccupazione? No. #qe #draghi
Read 9 tweets
...capito perché non se ne uscirà mai..?!?!
Dollar Shortage #FED
...le due chart "chiave"
Seguire #Fed fund rate futures e Eurodollar Futures oltre al libor è l'unica cosa che conta davvero e che impatta l'economia globale e la natura dei mercato aldilà degli algos telecomandati...
Libor up by 0.35 bps
Libor at 2.61813%
SPOT LOIS at 28.513
Read 135 tweets
Parliamo di #moneta. Prima domanda: sapete chi crea la quasi totalità del #denaro in circolazione?
In realtà la maggioranza delle persone, anche nel sondaggio offline, risponde non so. Risposte: lo #stato conia le #monete che solo solo lo 0,3% del valore totale... nel #bilancio #bancadItalia le #banconote sono solo il 8% scarso del totale #massa #monetaria #M2 in #Italia...
...and the winner are... le #banche private con circa il 91% della #moneta #M2 poiché emettono moneta scritturale digitale (a #debito) con un click
Read 13 tweets

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