Table starting to be set. Have houseruled some of the deployments to slightly better portray the current situation. It's not perfect, but current BAP countries and EFP leads are there. 
And then we'll go to two questions: do Russia grab islands? As part of the opening move we can land airborne troops on Bornholm and/or Gotland. This gives better sea control, but obviously tie up valuable forces. In the case of Gotland, it drags Sweden into the war.
I should warn you I've houseruled in #P18 on Gotland as a rather weak mechanized unit.
Next question - do we pre-position US heavy equipment in Poland? This hands some victory points to Russia & Belarus, but makes it possible to get reinforcements on location quicker.
So we're ready to kick off. The people has spoken and there is pre-positioned heavy equipment in Powidz, while the 76 Guards Division is preparing to jump on Gotland at the first moment.
The scenario is "Tactical Surprise", i.e. NATO has somewhat raised readiness and deployed the 82nd to Poland while a significant USMC contingent and two carriers are in the North Sea, when suddenly the units involved in the Russian-Belarussian winter exercise turns west.
The basic starting position is Polish 16th Mech Division 'Pomorska' opposite Kaliningrad with 12th Mech 'Szczecin' on its right flank, followed by the US 173 AB and 82nd AD on the Gołdap-Augustów-Białysyok line, and finally the 11th Armoured 'Lubuska' opposite Brest.
Cruise missile strikes damage the 11th AD headquarters and the airfield in Nowy Dwór, before the troops start to roll in.
SOF manage to disrupt NATO Air defences and provide targeting data on the Polish 10th Armoured brigade before slipping away without losses.
Air combat!
Side note: the advanced air combat rules in the Next War-series are rather good IMO, but sadly the naval combat is highly abstracted. This is acknowledged by the designer, and I understand the reasoning, but I'd still love to see an advanced naval rules option.
Massive air strikes along the Polish-Belarus border, as well as a large strike by Russian heavy bombers against one of the amphibious task groups detected on the North Sea.
No huge damage from the airstrikes on either side, with the exception of the 11th AD HQ which is in really bad shape.
The moment you've all been waiting for - the complete 76th Guards dropping in on Gotland (houseruling no air defense fires for initial surprise assault) and gets greeted by P18.
Sneakily, the Belarusian 38 Mobile Brigade is airdropped behind enemy lines to secure the bridges over Narew.
Combat is quite complex, so let's do a play-by-play on the Battle for Gotland:
First we add the attack value of the attacker, i.e. 2+2+0=4. This is compared against the defensive value (2 in this case), which gives the combat ratio 2:1.
We then go to the Combat Results Table and find the ratio 2:1 and correct terrain, "Rough woods" for land on the strategic map.
However, the paratroopers have a higher efficiency rating than P18, so when we take the difference we find that 6-4=2, so we shift two columns right.
Then we find a number of die roll modifiers, -2 for the terrain being to the advantage of the light infantry.
...and now I forgot to add the impact of the 76th HQ supporting the attack. This would have made the initial ratio 9:2, which translates into the 4:1 column and an additional -1 DRM due to the remainder in the odds.
So, yeah, if an airborne division attacks a mechanized battalion battlegroup we end up in the last column with a -3 DRM, and with the dice giving a 0 the defender is utterly destroyed.
10th Polished Armoured Brigade is in a tight spot, but with marginally better dice rolls than the Swedes they manage to hold their ground despite heavy losses.
Lithuanian Iron Wolf brigade crushed between the 20th Mechanized and 4th Guards Tanks Divisions, while 201th Mechanized Division steamroll over the Zemaitija Brigade. Not a good opening for Lithuania, despite the Russian 4th taking heavy losses in the process.
The Baltics are in a bad shape, the only positive news for NATO is Vidzeme, where the defenders from Latvia's 1st Infantry Battalion inflicted heavy losses on the Russian 25th Mechanized Brigade, to the extent that it was later wiped out by resistance fighters.
First round of fighting is over - and it was bloody. Three brigades and five independent battalions completely wiped out, with several other units suffering heavy losses.
NATO counterattacks - the 11th Polish supported by AH-64 Apaches from the 82nd AD overrun the Belarusian 6th Mechanized Brigade and it's supporting MLRS brigade.
In the end the 10th couldn't hold their ground but was wiped out in a new attack, with the 98th Airborne capturing Bielsk before the eyes of the 11th. In the south Warszawa is threatened, but the advancing units struggle to get Mazowiecki and Siedlce under control.
Lithuania is lost, but in Tartu the 98th Airborne struggle with trying to put down the resistance in the region.
The Polish units retreat, but manages to catch the artillery train of the units advancing towards Warszawa and cut the Brest-Warszawa road. At the same time a limited US counterattack south of Białystok pushes the 27th Motorized Brigade back.
Game turn 2 kicks off, with a winter storm moving in! NATO was quick to answer the call with the first reinforcements already in Germany ready to move out. The first German squadron has also met up with the US fleet.
Stormy weather causes issues for the fighters, making air combat difficult. NATO fares slightly better, but no air units are wiped out this time around.
The Baltic Fleet is in for a nasty surprise as suddenly a bunch of long-range anti-ship missiles appear out of the storm to sink one of the squadrons in a prime example of US-German cooperation.
There's*a lot* of air activity again, including strategic bombers from the US and Russian aircraft targeting bridges over Wisla earlier struck by a combination of SOF and long-range missiles.
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