1) Quebec on Friday posted 102 more presumptive #COVID19 cases involving the more transmissible variants. But there are still many stats about the variants that Quebec has not yet made public, unlike in neighboring Ontario. In this thread, I will highlight those information gaps.
2) The first gap to highlight is the fact that Ontario has to date reported a cumulative total of 2,099 presumptive #COVID19 variant cases, 140% higher than Quebec’s tally of 874. This suggests that Ontario is screening for the variants a lot more than Quebec. 
3) But it’s impossible to confirm that Ontario is, in fact, screening more for the variants, because Quebec is not releasing the data on the total number of positive tests that have undergone “criblage.” In Ontario, the figure for screened tests is 18,125.
4) The next thing the public is in the dark about in Quebec is the positivity rate for the variants. Two days ago, Health Minister Christian Dubé estimated it’s 10% — meaning that one in 10 positive #COVID19 test results that is screened for the variants comes up positive again.
5) In contrast, Ontario’s cumulative positivity rate is 11.5%. Digging deeper, one observes that the positivity rate for variants in Ontario has been creeping upward in the past few days, suggesting increasing transmission of the B.1.1.7 and other variants.
6) Although Quebec does provide a regional breakdown for confirmed variant cases, it doesn’t for presumptive ones. So Quebecers don’t know the variant positivity rate for presumptive cases or where they’re cropping up.
7) And as for confirmed variant cases, the number in Quebec is 34, compared with 493 in Ontario. How is it possible Quebec has so many fewer confirmed cases? Premier François Legault’s assertion that it’s because Ontario has closer ties with the U.K. is far from persuasive.
8) Again, in the absence of detailed data from the Quebec Health Ministry about the presumptive variant cases, a non-governmental volunteer website that tracks #COVID19 outbreaks in schools — covidecolesquebec.org — can tell us indirectly how the variants are spreading.
9) According to the chart below by Olivier Drouin of covidecolesquebec.org, one daycare and four schools on Friday reported suspected or presumptive variant cases. What’s noteworthy is that two schools are located south of Montreal and another north of the city.
10) Thus, the data by covidecolesquebec.org — and not by the government — suggests that most likely the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the U.K. in December and that has established itself in Montreal is now spreading far beyond the metropolis. End of thread. Stay safe.
Addendum: The following threads which could not fit into tonight’s thread are reproduced here. In the first one by the Quebec Education Ministry, one can see that the number of schools that have had to close fully or partially rose by two to 14 on Friday.
Addendum 2: The incidence of #COVID19 in Montreal is still on a plateau of daily cases in the 400-range, as one can glimpse from the chart below. This may be because public health authorities are still testing a lot probably because of the presence of the B.1.1.7 variant.
Addendum 3: Nurses on Thursday vaccinated 4,094 Montrealers, the highest one-day tally so far in the #pandemic. Fortunately, a lot more vaccines are on the way. The vaccines have likely saved some lives already. See the chart below of the lowering death toll in the city.
Addendum 4: Amid the ramp-up in vaccinations, Montreal has reopened considerably for the March break, even with the #COVID19 variants on the loose. Let us hope that people don’t start showing up in packed emergency rooms infected with B.1.1.7. See below.
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