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Aaron Derfel

28 Feb, 10 tweets, 4 min read

1) Quebec on Sunday confirmed that the more contagious #COVID19 variants are indeed spreading across the province. This news comes amid a second outbreak in an eldercare home and an uptick in #pandemic hospitalizations in Montreal.

2) In the chart below, Quebec’s public health institute confirmed another 103 variant cases for a total of 137. Most involve the B.1.1.7 variant in Montreal. Six more were found in Laval and two in Lanaudière. B.1.1.7, originating in the U.K., is considered 50% more contagious.

3) Authorities also confirmed through genetic sequencing 38 more cases of the B.1.351 variant which first appeared in South Africa. Quebec now has far more cases of the B.1.351 variant than any another province in Canada.

4) As I wrote in an earlier thread, it appears that Quebec public health authorities sat on this information about the B.1.351 variant for a couple of weeks even as they suspected it was spreading in two outbreaks in the western region of Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

5) Also on Sunday, Quebec recorded another 99 presumptive case of #COVID19 variants, most likely B.1.1.7., reaching a total of 1,083. A few days ago, Health Minister Christian Dubé sounded hopeful about containing the presumptive variants, noting they were under 800.

6) Meanwhile, Montreal reported an uptick in #COVID19 hospitalizations Sunday, rising by seven to 348. Sacré-Coeur, St. Mary’s, Maisonneuve-Rosemont, the Royal Victoria, and the Centre hospitalier de l’université de Montréal each posted modest increases in #pandemic admissions.

7) After dropping steadily for more than two weeks, the total number of active #COVID19 cases in Quebec’s long-term care centres and seniors’ residences inched up by nine to 318. Still, that’s far below the daily range of 2,600 in mid-January.

8) The Auberge des Beaux Jours in the Montérégie has declared a #COVID19 outbreak, with five cases in the past 24 hours. The outbreak at the Lionel-Émond residence in the Outaouais added another four cases for a total of 40, plus one death.

9) With lots more vaccine on the way, nurses in Montreal gave 5,014 people first shots on Saturday, down from a record 5,593 on Friday. With a month left, it looks like Quebec might reach its goal of vaccinating 650,000 people by March 31.

10) But as the new eldercare outbreaks, uptick in #COVID hospitalizations and spread of the variants demonstrate, Quebec is far from taming this #pandemic. Quite the opposite, it may be tempting it with the wide-open March break. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

2 Mar

1) As Quebec on Monday posted 51 more presumptive cases involving the more contagious #COVID19 variants, new projections warn the province could be hit with a third wave in March and April that's much higher than the previous two.

2) Simon Fraser University researchers Elisha Are and Caroline Colijn wrote in a blog posting on Monday that most of Canada has been able to control #COVID19 recently, but they suggested that the B.1.1.7 variant (now spreading through Montreal) poses a much bigger problem.

3) Should B.1.1.7 become established, Quebec and five other provinces could be sideswiped by exponential growth in #COVID19 cases, with a doubling time of one to two weeks, compared to earlier doubling times of up to 40 days in Ontario. Please see the chart below for Quebec.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

28 Feb

1) Covidecolesquebec.org on Saturday recorded the 30th school to date with suspected or presumptive #COVID19 variants. That news coincided with revelations of an uptick in cases in the greater Montreal region of multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children.

2) The rise in cases of the rare pediatric syndrome at the Montreal Children’s and Sainte-Justine hospitals started before January’s emergence of the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant, and challenges the myth that #COVID19 is harmless in children. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

3) Meanwhile, Premier François Legault exhorted Quebecers on Saturday to avoid private gatherings during the March break, warning of the presence of B.1.1.7, which originated in the U.K. in December and is now responsible for a surge in cases throughout Europe.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

27 Feb

1) Quebec on Friday posted 102 more presumptive #COVID19 cases involving the more transmissible variants. But there are still many stats about the variants that Quebec has not yet made public, unlike in neighboring Ontario. In this thread, I will highlight those information gaps.

2) The first gap to highlight is the fact that Ontario has to date reported a cumulative total of 2,099 presumptive #COVID19 variant cases, 140% higher than Quebec’s tally of 874. This suggests that Ontario is screening for the variants a lot more than Quebec.

3) But it’s impossible to confirm that Ontario is, in fact, screening more for the variants, because Quebec is not releasing the data on the total number of positive tests that have undergone “criblage.” In Ontario, the figure for screened tests is 18,125.

Read 14 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

26 Feb

1) As Quebec plans to ease #pandemic restrictions Friday for the coming March break, it’s worth noting what some European countries that were hit with the B.1.1.7 variant much earlier than here are now doing, while the same strain spreads in Montreal.

2) In France, Prime Minister Jean Castex warned on Thursday of increased measures to fight the proliferation of B.1.1.7 in 20 regions, including Paris, following Wednesday’s count of 30,000 new #COVID19 infections.

3) The Czech Republic declared it will tighten its lockdown, including a ban on travel between counties for the next three weeks. Daycares and elementary schools will close on Monday. The government may send some Czech #COVID19 patients to Germany for treatment.

Read 15 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

25 Feb

1) The more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant now appears to be circulating widely in Montreal, the latest data by the public health department suggest. The variant been responsible for at least 22 #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal since January, mainly in schools and daycare centres.

2) And since last week, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in schools has jumped by 19 to 117 in the city, with nearly 600 positive cases. In fact, the contagion in schools stands out because clusters have been dropping in nearly every other sector. See the chart below.

3) And three more Montreal schools — Antoine-de-Saint-Exupery, Adélard-Desrosier and Beth Jacob de Rev Hirschsprung — reported four more suspected cases on Wednesday involving the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the U.K. in December, according to covidecolesquebec.org.

Read 14 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

23 Feb

1) One in ten positive #COVID tests is now screening for the more transmissible variants in Quebec — a situation that worries public health officials and Premier François Legault, who acknowledged that next week’s March break will be a “big test” in the #pandemic.

2) On Tuesday, the number of presumptive #COVID19 variant cases jumped by 69 to 484. Recall that less than two week ago, on Feb. 10, Quebec reported just 23 presumptive cases involving the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants.

3) Ontario, by comparison, has posted a cumulative total of 1,527 presumptive variant cases — that is positive test results with the N501Y gene mutation of the sticky spike protein on the #coronavirus. All three major variants, including P.1, share that mutation.

Read 13 tweets

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