anlomedad Profile picture
27 Feb, 14 tweets, 13 min read
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen Did you actually think that thru?
IMO, it's a false hope that plants might decrease CO2 ppm if we only reach true-0. At true-zero, AND under the˚C stress level then, carbon sinks decline further. Like they do today, at merely 1.2C. New sinks🌳will do, too!
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen Look at #AUSfires 2020, emitted 800Mt, IIRC? That was at only 1.2C. The forest grows back slowly, takes up CO2 again, or becomes grassland. True. But for now, it's gone, CO2 ppm has increased, sink decreased – and our˚C goes up.
Much forest land eventually burns or dies in ++˚C!
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen As forests die, as more and more will in ++˚C, decomposing emits CO2e, too. Up goes ppm and up goes˚C from that, if only by a little.

New 🌳do have a short-time advantage in heat/water stress bc roots are shorter than old trees'. But: shallow roots =more 🌳die in storms =++CO2e
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen And respiration vs photosynthesis has a temperature tipping point: over local 24/34˚they become net CO2 source. The forest in Siberia's heatwave in summer 2020 - even the area that didn't burn - was a net CO2 source, just from respiration under heat stress alone. As was EU forest
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen To sum it up:
*at higher than 1.2˚warming, plants and soils more and more often are a CO2 source wrt respiration in heat stress. New trees, too.
*dying from pests/water stress/fires emits CO2e and carbon sinks shrink.
👉Net-zero doesn't work and we can't hope to reduce ppm via🌳
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen We'd have to constantly add to the land carbon sink in order to maintain the level of planned sequestration. That's unrealistic. And by adding to the land carbon sink in form of new trees, we add a, more and more often, net CO2 source under heat stress from respiration alone.
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen @threadreaderapp The general mechanics of carbon sinks under positive CO2 emissions up to now was: 30% land, 20% oceans, 50% atmosphere. Since we still emit CO2 and since land carbon sink declines further from rising temperature, we de facto are decreasing our remaining CO2 budget already!
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen @threadreaderapp And in an assumed “net-zero” regime by, say, 2040 and at 1.5˚C then? Same as today: an ever declining land carbon sink increases the % of how much CO2 stays in the atmo. It wd happen without decline, too. Simply bc general mechanics is, 50% of residual positive makes CO2ppm go up
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen @threadreaderapp The pic shows carbon flux in a zero emission world at CO2 ppm theoretically consistent with well-below-2. It’s not balanced. There’s a slight positive flux into the atmo from Northern land and from oceans even in this uninformed model (used to actually investigate sea level rise)
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen @threadreaderapp source…
oh, and the previous pictures wrt repspiration versus photosynthesis in C3 and C4 plants were from…
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen @threadreaderapp And that model, setup to investigate sea level rise after a negative emission phase, was uninformed of what happens to C3 and C4 plants and forests.

In general, climate models still don't incorporate that (new) knowledge like this new paper also states…
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen @threadreaderapp See? The general mechanics of our carbon sinks don’t support “net zero” hope. Even less so under higher˚C than today. Note: the higher the latitude, the faster the warming. 1 heatwave in boreal forests at 1.5˚- and a year's worth of their carbon sink capacity might be cancelled.
@robjlinds @Peters_Glen @threadreaderapp There’s no way we cd hope to compensate that by adding more and more trees to stay “net zero”. From the looks of it, we’ll have to add more and more trees annually just to stay true zero to keep ˚C the same.

And without mentioning emissions from the already thawing permafrost!

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More from @anlomedad

25 Feb
Studying the 1.5˚climate plan for Germany by NGO @_GermanZero written by experts in all relevant fields, incl. hard-sci (Mojib Latif)… Stumbling over 20% rest emissions, and general compensation logic.

I'll assume, global 20% rest emissions = 8Gt/year
Here's the German version of GermanZero's climate plan…
I might do another thread on the plan itself. But now, I'm interested in the other thing: the rest emissions from hard to decarbonize sectors and how natural compensation mechanics work for *net* zero.
I have issues getting the logic of continuously sequestering these 8Gt/a CO2 emissions. I myself calculated with a similar number before but never bothered to really think it through.

I know: flux into terrestrial carbon sinks under current 38Gt/a CO2 is different than for 8Gt.
Read 26 tweets
23 Feb
This pub-sci… had me hope it's mere doomism so I read the paper… It's true. 20yrs of observational data on biome's carbon flux say, due to rising respiration from˚C ALONE, land carbon sink has shrunk already. -20%by 2040 is inevitable
What they tell us is real life stuff, not guesstimates. They describe how they reduced the observational data on carbon flux to temperature-only impact on photosynthesis and respiration –ruling out factors like drought or nutrient availability from messing up their investigation.
The respiration and photosynthesis sensitivity to temperature shows big differences. That's because of 3 types of plants, distinct in their CO2 uptake in source and in their preference for a C-isotope.
C3 plants dominate in mid-high latitudes while C4 plants grow in the tropics. Image
Read 30 tweets
28 Jan
#luebcke Das ist hart. Kapier ich nicht. Das war E.'s Freund und wusste, mit welchen Mordgedanken der sich trug = Beihilfe in Loyalität und in Waffenbeschaffung.

IMO legt grade dieses Urteil versäumte/behinderte Faktenfindung nahe und macht insgesamt einen Showprozess draus.

Zeitschrift der Hessischen Lehrer-Gewerkschaft… S.15 listet die hessischen Nazi-Angriffe von Jan-März '16. Diese standen damals jedenfalls nicht [alle?]auf den normalen Seiten von Antonio-Stiftung oder Stern, hatte ich ma geguckt
Passt in die Unstimmigkeit mit der Bewährungsstrafe lediglich für Verstoß gegen Waffengesetz.
Welche AnklageN gegen den Freund erhoben wurden und warum dann nur das WaffG ausschlaggebend war, würd sich auch lohnen nachzulesen.
Read 4 tweets
18 Jan
@wunder2welt @HalleVerkehrt Neoliberales Boxthink ist: man macht alles marktkonform, sogar das winzige Restbudget für 1.5˚ – womit die Welt schon 2040 auf 0 sein muss, lt. W. Steffen. Und nu will Edenhofer auch noch vll 10Jahre mit China verhandeln u CO2-Preis vereinheitlichen...irre.

CO2🪦ist keine Ware.
@wunder2welt @HalleVerkehrt Es muss einfach weg, schleunigst. In geregelter Form, für #LeaveNoOneBehind: den reichen Audizulieferer in BaWü, Werftarbeiter in Rostock, Bauern in Honduras, ..
Nicht per Marktdynamik machbar. Da bleiben zuviele auf der Strecke oder Ausnahmen sind nötig - und die verzögern alles
@wunder2welt @HalleVerkehrt Der Gedanke, man könne CO2 verkaufen ignoriert auch, dass es ein nur noch ultraenges Budget gibt + ultra extistenzielle Notwendigkeiten auf der anderen Seite. Das Budget verplempert man nicht für Autos/Yachten/Flüge. Sondern es ist Kapital, um die Transformation noch hinzukriegen
Read 10 tweets
11 Dec 20
@totozanzibar @lara_eck @EcocideLaw @StopptOekozid @StoppOekozid Wie passt CO2-Preis zu @EcocideLaw @StoppOekozid, wenn man vorher Ökozid & Mord legalisiert👉die Rechte daran meistbietend verhökert?

Kriminalisierung, auch der früheren Täter #Exxonknew, schafft Klarheit in gesellschaftl. akzeptierter Moral. Es ist ein Bollwerk gegen🌍Barbarei
@totozanzibar @lara_eck @EcocideLaw @StopptOekozid @StoppOekozid CO2-Preis ist unter-debattiert.
Wir werden mit der Einordnung von Wetterkatastrophen+Leid hadern. Wir werden uns auch selbst schuldig fühlen.
👉Emotionaler Ertaubung
👉schwächelndem Klimaschutz
👉weniger Empathie 👉weniger Solidarität 👉Barbarei.
Moral MUSS ne Chance behalten
@totozanzibar @lara_eck @EcocideLaw @StopptOekozid @StoppOekozid Das Verhökern von Mordrechten ist moralisch verwerflich. Auch macht es wg der Winzigkeit des Restbudgets zeitl. keinen Sinn, jetzt noch für globalen CO2Preis Werbung zu machen wie Edenhofer kürzlich. Aber Mr. No-Bremse will wohl eh 2˚, nicht well below 2˚?
Read 8 tweets
10 Dec 20
"A Societal Transformation Scenario for Staying Below 1.5°C", a study published by @boell_stiftung

It's the reason for my ✊🙌 . Reading the part on IAM had me smile devilishly 😆 and my mental middle finger rose higher with each word.

My takeaway🧵…
Kai Kuhnhenn, Luis Costa, Eva Mahnke, Linda Schneider, Steffen Lange are the authors.
It's not peer-reviewed.
Böll-Stiftung, a political foundation by @Die_Gruenen, published it under their own quality assurance.
Bullet points:
*a global scenario, not national bellybutton
*describes pathways for Global North and South/ Annex-I-countries and non-Annex-I countries
*fossil CO2 552 Gt by 2100; additional natural sequestration of 4Gt/a from ~2040 onwards.
*#Equity is implied but not addressed
Read 9 tweets

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