Thread by @tparsi

/THREAD/ 1. Disturbing news that Iran has rejected the EU invitation for talks with the US re the JCPOA. This is a very negative and worrying development. It complicates matters further and risks jeopardizing the deal. But it is NOT surprising. Here’s why
wsj.com/articles/iran-…

2. As I wrote yesterday in the @Guardian, the idea that Iran would talk directly with the US while the US continued implementing JCPOA-busting sanctions was tried by Trump for 3 years and didn’t work then, and it likely won’t work now. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

3. Don’t take my word for it. This is what Wendy Sherman - Trump’s Dep Secr. of State - said about it in 2019: I “would be shocked if Iran agreed to a meeting without some sanctions relief.” Sherman was right then and she is right now.>>

4. Iran’s calculation is likely as follows. If it agrees to talks while Biden effectively continues Trump’s sanctions policy, and the talks fail, Iran will be blamed - even though the US has done nothing to rectify what caused this crisis in the first place: Trump’s JPCOA exit.>>

5. So without changing a thing (remember, Trump wanted to talk to Iran as well), the US will have succeeded in shifting the blame to Iran. All the US needed to do was to elect a new president -with no real change in policy at all (except a stated intent to return to the JCPOA)>>

6. Of course, that change in stated intent is not inconsequential. But in a relationship mired in mistrust, stated intent means little if actions do not match that intent. This is where the last month of childish trust-eroding fights over who goes first comes in.>>

7. US public insistence that Iran goes first, the EU push to punish Iran at IAEA even though the US is still outside of the deal and has received no censure, saying that Saudi’s MBS will not be sanctioned because the US needs KSA to counter Iran…>>

8… all erode confidence in Tehran that Biden is serious and makes the move of joining the talks without any sanctions relief that puts evidence behind the stated intent of returning to the JCPOA all the more risky.>>

9. Biden even refuses to allow Iran access to its own money in South Korea, even though that has created major problems for Seoul and was the result of an inhumane policy Biden has lambasted - you just don’t do this during a pandemic.>>

10. The Biden team of course knows this quite well. So what explains their conduct? This is Biden’s own decision, driven by a refusal to be “pressured by Iran” to give something before talks can begin and the fear that he’ll lose hawkish Dems whose votes he needs for Covid-relief

11. The attacks in Iraq by groups aligned with Iran further hardened Biden’s attitude. Both the instinct not to be pressured and the fear of being attacked by hawkish Democrats if he was perceived as backing down.>>

12. This is precisely why from the outset, the Biden team should have done their utmost not to walk down the path of engaging in public fights of who goes first etc. This is the inevitable outcome: Everything becomes costlier politically. Even before real talks have begun.>>

13. So is there a way out of this deadlock. If the political will exists on both sides, they can overcome this. But political will gets eroded if there’s a constant fear of “looking weak.”>>

14. Obama was constantly attacked for his Iran policy. He was falsely accused of bending over backwards for the Iranians. In the end, he didn’t care. Focused on the prize - the unquestionable national security imperative of preventing an Iranian bomb and avoiding war.>>

15. He prioritized what would make diplomacy work, rather than on what would score political points with Republicans, Saudis, or Israelis. And guess what - he secured a great deal. No one else has done that with Iran on the US side.>>

16. What POTENTIALLY could break the deadlock now is if the US pulls back the EU from going forward with the IAEA censure AND releases the South Korean funds, while Iran joins the talks AND reverses one of its recent escalatory moves.>>

17. Admittedly an imperfect solution, but there is no perfect solution to this imperfect situation. Both sides will have to swallow some pride and pay a political cost. And the longer they wait, the higher that cost will be.//

Of course, Wendy is BIDEN's Dep Sec of State, not Trump's. My bad.