Scenarios for Alberta COVID spread.

Current policy seems to be producing a third "wave".

As always, #COVIDzero is the way out - the only rational and humane solution.
Had we adopted #COVIDzero strategy on Nov 11, we would have now *6.5 weeks of no community transmission*.
46 🍩days!
Which means businesses could be relatively safely reopened.
And we would have a perspective of a normal spring and summer.
...
Maybe we would need to stamp out small flare ups, but the vast majority of people who got sick or died from COVID between Jan 15 and today, would be healthy and alive.
And people who need to live in isolation since 1 year, could now have normal life. Since couple of weeks.
...
The next best time to implement #COVIDzero policy in Alberta and Canada is today.

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More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

12 Feb
B117 grows exponentially in AB, doubling every 7 days.
At this rate it'll become dominant on Mar05
and AB will have:

Mar 15, 500 daily new cases
Mar 24, 1000 daily new cases
Mar 31, 2000 daily new cases

Yes, the government and AH can avoid it. By aiming for #COVIDzero ASAP
To put such growth in context:

AB fall surge: doubling time = 2.5 weeks
March, beginning of the pandemic: doubling time = 7 days
Today's B117, *despite of restrictions in place*: doubling time = 7 days
What does this fast growth mean?

1) AB travel control is weak -> B117 gets seeded in the community.
2) Testing (although impressively ramped up) and Tracing is *not* halting B117's exp. growth.

Alberta *doesn't have B117 under control*.
Read 5 tweets
9 Jan
1) The B117 variant is a killer. We cannot afford to have it in AB

If we have 1000 cases/day now, with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 600/day in 2 weeks

➡️But w/ added transmissibility of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have *3000* new cases/day instead
2) If B.1.1.7 is ~60% more transmissible, moderate shut-downs might not be sufficient for R<1.

Only strict 1st wave style Austria or NZ measures would be able to control B.1.1.7 spread.
3) The window of opportunity to get ahead of B117 is very narrow.

In South West London in just 2 weeks the amount of B117 grew from something quenchable, into an epidemic that is hard to controll even with very strict measures.
Read 10 tweets
30 Dec 20
Tweet from Summer, but very relevant now.

Over next days AB can choose to:

A) aim for elimination & stop community transmission within few weeks, or

B) keep struggling (bonus: new variant = more struggle)

1/

With strict measures AB can stop community transmission by late February.
Then protect zero community transmission status w/ travel control and cases monitoring.


2/
To eliminate COVID in AB:
Keep stringent measures in place (get to and keep R=0.6) till we get to zero daily new cases.
Don't reopen in-person classes before we get to zero (that is till ~late February)

3 a/
Read 13 tweets
20 Dec 20
The meaning of R

Sustained R, starting from 1,600 daily new cases (dnc):

R=0.97 ➡️ halving time (ht)=3 months ➡️ 1,020 dnc in 2 months
R=0.8 ➡️ ht=12.4 days ➡️ 60 dnc in 2 months, zero in 4.5 months
R=0.6 ➡️ ht=5.4 days ➡️ ZERO dnc in *2 months*

1/
The meaning of R

Sustained R, starting from 1,600 daily new cases,

Toll of the first 2 months:

R=0.97 ➡️ 76,300 cases ➡️ 1,220 deaths
R=0.8 ➡️ 28,400 cases ➡️ 450 deaths
R=0.6 ➡️ 13,300 cases ➡️ 210 deaths

2/
Toll of subsequent months (after the first 2 months):

R=0.97 : a lot of cases & deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.8 : some cases and deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.6 : NOTHING

3/
Read 7 tweets
6 Dec 20
YYC, Alberta
If we implement a *supported lockdown* this Monday, Dec 7, Calgary can have:

Dec 27, 225 daily new cases (not 1,350)
Feb 05, *0* daily new cases (not 4,600)

#COVIDzero
Tell it to MLAs today. Ask them to act.
Contact info:
assembly.ab.ca/members/member…

1/
Postponing a supported lockdown enables the virus to kill people.
1,000 cases corresponds to 16 deaths.

2/
If we get to #COVIDzero in Calgary by early February, then keep wiping with vaccine* and TTI, we have high chances to have Stampede 2021.

*AH anticipation: 10% AB vaccinated by end of March, 40% by September.
That's not enough to stop the spread before July by vaccine only.
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec 20
YYC NE has an extremely high new case rate (100/100 K, growing exponentially). It has a super fast doubling time of new daily cases: 1.5 weeks (AB 2.5 weeks).

Everywhere in the world, frontline & essential workers are the primary victims of insufficient pandemic responses.

1/
Calgary NE:
Daily new cases grow exponentially
Doubling time is: 1.5 weeks

At this rate, in NE, there will be:

Dec 15, 520 daily new cases
Dec 26, 1025 daily new cases
Jan 01, 1480 daily new cases

We need a sharp U-turn *now*

2/
Every day of *not implementing* supported lockdown in AB costs lives 👇

3/
Read 5 tweets

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