1) Strange things are now happening in the #pandemic in Montreal at this juncture, with #COVID19 cases plummeting but hospitalizations rising, and the much more contagious B.1.1.7 variant circulating. In this thread, I will try to make sense of these cross currents.
2) For three days in a row, #COVID19 hospitalizations have crept up in Montreal. The total rose by six to 358 on Tuesday, with the Jewish General, Sainte-Justine, the Royal Victoria, the Lakeshore General, Santa Cabrini and Notre Dame posting modest increases in admissions.
3) Normally in this #pandmemic, #COVID19 cases increase first, followed by a rise in hospitalizations about two weeks later and then a spike in deaths two or three weeks afterward. But in the last few days, hospitalizations have gone up as cases have dwindled.
4) There could be several reasons for this: authorities have been testing less (unlikely); there’s been a reporting blip of some kind (still possible); not enough time has elapsed to observe a trend; or the extent of the contagion of the variants has not yet been determined.
5) As the chart below shows, on Jan. 12 the age demographic in Quebec that represented most #COVID19 hospitalizations was the 80-to-89 cohort. More than a month and a half later, that’s no longer true: the 70-to-79 group now comprises the lion’s share of such hospitalizations. 
6) This might suggest that the #COVID19 vaccinations that were administered to the residents of long-term care centres in December and January have led to a decrease in hospitalizations among people in their 80s. We’ll have to wait a while longer to confirm this trend.
7) Meanwhile, Quebec’s public health institute on Tuesday revised downward the total number of presumptive #COVID19 cases involving the variants. The chart below shows a decrease of 39 presumptive cases, with no explanation offered.
8) Yet even though schools have been closed since Friday because of the March break, the Quebec Education Ministry on Tuesday reported an increase of 35 active #COVID19 cases among students and staff, for a total of 2,309. Please see the chart below.
9) And since Friday, the number of schools declaring suspected or presumptive #COVID19 variant cases has jumped from 24 to 35. What’s noteworthy is that only half the schools are in the greater Montreal region, suggesting the variants are likely spreading far and wide.
10) In what Health Minister Christian Dubé described Tuesday as the “calm before the storm,” Montreal posted 256 #COVID19 cases, the lowest daily dally since Nov. 25. This comes as nurses vaccinated a record 9,740 Montrealers the day before.
11) Were it not for the B.1.1.7 and B.1.135 variants, Quebec could claim to have tamed the #pandemic. But there’s just too much uncertainty and strange cross currents to jump to that conclusion. The only plausible course of action is to remain highly prudent. End of thread.
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