1) Despite the welcome ramp-up in #COVID19 vaccinations, several disturbing facts emerged on Thursday in Montreal and across Quebec suggesting that either the second wave of the #pandemic is far from over, or that a third wave may have already begun.
2) Provincially, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace rose for a second day in a row, up to 275 from 252 two days earlier. At this stage, it’s hard to gauge whether this increase is being driven by the more transmissible variants of concern.
3) But Quebec’s public health institute did declare its biggest single-day increase in the number of presumptive #COVID19 cases involving variants, with a cumulative total of 1,353, up by 133. The number of confirmed cases remained at 137.
4) After relatively few outbreaks in eldercare homes recently, Quebec reported five clusters Thursday with #COVID19 cases appearing in the past 24 hours. In the most critical outbreak, the Auberge des Beaux Jours in the Montérégie (south of Montreal) posted four more cases.
5) Although schools have been closed during the March break, a primary school in Lachine and a high school in Saint-Raymond de Portneauf, northwest of Quebec City, revealed on Thursday suspected #COVID19 cases involving the variants, according to covidecolesquebec.org.
6) Meanwhile, the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations across Quebec inched up for the fourth time in five days for a total of 626. The number of deaths has also gone up slightly, by 19 to 10,445. Montreal added 10 fatalities for a death toll of 4,529. Please see the chart below.
7) Quebec’s public health institute released its latest projections taking into account not only B.1.1.7 but the mass vaccinations. Still, the INSPQ warned “average adherence to (public health restrictions) would not be sufficient to control the spread of (the) new variant.”
8) Although #COVID19 cases had been falling around the world, they are now surging in many parts of Europe, as the chart below by the Washington Post makes clear. The B.1.1.7 variant, which originated in the U.K. last year, is spreading through Europe despite its vaccine rollout.
9) Thus, it would not be an exaggeration to surmise that once schools reopen on Monday, #COVID19 cases will resume popping up, especially in the Montreal region. For this reason alone, compliance to public-health measures must be strong, not merely average. End of thread.
Addendum: the following two charts could not fit into today’s thread, so they’re being reproduced here. In the chart below, one can glimpse that Montreal appears to be at a new but lower plateau in the range of 300 daily cases.
Addendum 2: What’s striking about this last chart is the fact that Montreal’s emergency-room overcrowding has been in the red during nine of the past 10 days. I dread the possibility of a B.1.1.7 outbreak flaring up in a Montreal ER.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

4 Mar
1) Premier François Legault warned on Wednesday evening that the Montreal region will be hit with an increase in the next few weeks of #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations fueled by the B.1.1.7 variant from the U.K. In this thread, I will assess the likelihood of this occurring.
2) Health Minister Christian Dubé noted that projections to be unveiled on Thursday morning will include a scenario of 2,000 to 3,000 daily #COVID19 cases and a range of 1,500 to 2,000 hospitalizations, back to where Quebec was in early January.
3) Dubé made those remarks after Quebec’s public health institute reported 125 more presumptive #COVID19 cases involving variants of concern, for a total of 1,220. The number of confirmed cases has remained at 137. Please see the chart below.
Read 15 tweets
3 Mar
1) Strange things are now happening in the #pandemic in Montreal at this juncture, with #COVID19 cases plummeting but hospitalizations rising, and the much more contagious B.1.1.7 variant circulating. In this thread, I will try to make sense of these cross currents.
2) For three days in a row, #COVID19 hospitalizations have crept up in Montreal. The total rose by six to 358 on Tuesday, with the Jewish General, Sainte-Justine, the Royal Victoria, the Lakeshore General, Santa Cabrini and Notre Dame posting modest increases in admissions.
3) Normally in this #pandmemic, #COVID19 cases increase first, followed by a rise in hospitalizations about two weeks later and then a spike in deaths two or three weeks afterward. But in the last few days, hospitalizations have gone up as cases have dwindled.
Read 11 tweets
2 Mar
1) As Quebec on Monday posted 51 more presumptive cases involving the more contagious #COVID19 variants, new projections warn the province could be hit with a third wave in March and April that's much higher than the previous two.
2) Simon Fraser University researchers Elisha Are and Caroline Colijn wrote in a blog posting on Monday that most of Canada has been able to control #COVID19 recently, but they suggested that the B.1.1.7 variant (now spreading through Montreal) poses a much bigger problem.
3) Should B.1.1.7 become established, Quebec and five other provinces could be sideswiped by exponential growth in #COVID19 cases, with a doubling time of one to two weeks, compared to earlier doubling times of up to 40 days in Ontario. Please see the chart below for Quebec.
Read 10 tweets
28 Feb
1) Quebec on Sunday confirmed that the more contagious #COVID19 variants are indeed spreading across the province. This news comes amid a second outbreak in an eldercare home and an uptick in #pandemic hospitalizations in Montreal.
2) In the chart below, Quebec’s public health institute confirmed another 103 variant cases for a total of 137. Most involve the B.1.1.7 variant in Montreal. Six more were found in Laval and two in Lanaudière. B.1.1.7, originating in the U.K., is considered 50% more contagious.
3) Authorities also confirmed through genetic sequencing 38 more cases of the B.1.351 variant which first appeared in South Africa. Quebec now has far more cases of the B.1.351 variant than any another province in Canada.
Read 10 tweets
28 Feb
1) Covidecolesquebec.org on Saturday recorded the 30th school to date with suspected or presumptive #COVID19 variants. That news coincided with revelations of an uptick in cases in the greater Montreal region of multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children.
2) The rise in cases of the rare pediatric syndrome at the Montreal Children’s and Sainte-Justine hospitals started before January’s emergence of the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant, and challenges the myth that #COVID19 is harmless in children. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) Meanwhile, Premier François Legault exhorted Quebecers on Saturday to avoid private gatherings during the March break, warning of the presence of B.1.1.7, which originated in the U.K. in December and is now responsible for a surge in cases throughout Europe.
Read 9 tweets
27 Feb
1) Quebec on Friday posted 102 more presumptive #COVID19 cases involving the more transmissible variants. But there are still many stats about the variants that Quebec has not yet made public, unlike in neighboring Ontario. In this thread, I will highlight those information gaps.
2) The first gap to highlight is the fact that Ontario has to date reported a cumulative total of 2,099 presumptive #COVID19 variant cases, 140% higher than Quebec’s tally of 874. This suggests that Ontario is screening for the variants a lot more than Quebec.
3) But it’s impossible to confirm that Ontario is, in fact, screening more for the variants, because Quebec is not releasing the data on the total number of positive tests that have undergone “criblage.” In Ontario, the figure for screened tests is 18,125.
Read 14 tweets

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