1) Premier François Legault warned on Wednesday evening that the Montreal region will be hit with an increase in the next few weeks of #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations fueled by the B.1.1.7 variant from the U.K. In this thread, I will assess the likelihood of this occurring.
2) Health Minister Christian Dubé noted that projections to be unveiled on Thursday morning will include a scenario of 2,000 to 3,000 daily #COVID19 cases and a range of 1,500 to 2,000 hospitalizations, back to where Quebec was in early January.
3) Dubé made those remarks after Quebec’s public health institute reported 125 more presumptive #COVID19 cases involving variants of concern, for a total of 1,220. The number of confirmed cases has remained at 137. Please see the chart below. 
4) The proportion of new #COVID19 cases in Montreal that are linked to the B.1.1.7 variant rose from 12% last week to up to 16% in the past few days, Dr. Mylène Drouin, head of the city’s public health department, told reporters earlier on Wednesday.
5) Dr. Drouin attributed the spread of B.1.1.7 to elevated transmission in schools, raising the question as to why authorities did not take more precautions months earlier by testing students more often and installing air purifiers in poorly ventilated classrooms.
6) But new data by the public health department show that a month after non-essential commercial outlets were allowed to reopen, transmission of the #coronavirus is beginning to rise (slowly but surely) in retail, big box, and grocery stores. See the chart below.
7) Given that the B.1.1.7 variant is considered to be about 50% more transmissible, the prospect of it taking hold in the retail sector is worrisome. And in just a few days, schools will reopen following the March break.
8) Meanwhile, another Montreal elementary school, École Notre-Dame-des-Rapides in LaSalle, declared on Wednesday a suspected #COVID19 case involving a variant, according to covidecolesquebec.org. In total, 36 Quebec schools have reported presumptive or suspected variant cases.
9) The province also reported an uptick in #COVID19 outbreaks Wednesday. The number in daycares inched up by two to 79, by three to 231 in schools and by 15 to 267 in the workplace. We don’t know what the percentage of cases is involving B.1.1.7 or the other variant, B.1.351.
10) Quebec, like jurisdictions around the world, is entering a new phase in the #pandemic best described as “Vaccines versus the Variants.” On Wednesday, authorities set another record in vaccinating 11,181 Montrealers for a total of 134,781 in the metropolis.
11) But researchers at Simon Fraser University, who have also issued dire projections for Quebec for late March and April, cautioned this week that “right now, vaccination is not going to impact transmission in the 6-to-8 week time frame” of their forecasts. End of thread.
Addendum: The following charts could not fit into tonight’s thread, so I’m reproducing them here. The chart below reveals an upswing in #COVID19 cases in Montreal, with 338 disclosed on Wednesday. Drouin said Montreal is stuck in a #pandemic plateau.
Addendum 2: The chart below shows that transmission of the #coronavirus — including the B.1.1.7 variant — is heightened in the following Montreal districts and boroughs: Anjou, Côte-des-Neiges—Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, Côte-Saint-Luc, Pointe-Claire and Saint-Laurent.
Addendum 3: Given the stakes involved, the Montreal public health department needs to clarify what the category of “other” means, since the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in this sector rose by nine since last week. Please see the chart below.
Addendum 4: And finally, back to my pet peeve, the congestion in the city’s hospital emergency rooms. During the first wave and second waves, #COVID19 outbreaks did flare up in crowded ERs. With B.1.1.7 on the loose, the potential for more such outbreaks is greater.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
