Believe it or not, there's an important connection between #HR1 and the #TexasFoldEm lawsuit to strike down the #ACA pending a #SCOTUS decision right now. 1/
The #TexasFoldEm case, brought by 20 GOP state AGs, uses insane "logic" to claim the #ACA's individual mandate is unconstitutional because the GOP changed the penalty amount to $0.

However, it ALSO argues that since the mandate is unconstitutional, the ENTIRE LAW is as well. 2/
The first issue is re. merits of the case, which most legal experts from ACROSS the political spectrum agree are either nonexistent or weak at best.

The SECOND issue is re. "severability"...that is, whether you can strike down one part of a law without striking down the rest. 3/
On the issue of severability, pretty much EVERY legal/Constitutional expert agrees that yes, SCOTUS can *easily* remove the mandate language while leaving the rest of the ACA in place whether there's a line in the ACA stating such or not (there isn't). 4/
Assuming #HR1 passes and becomes law (and it damned well better), there will almost certainly be a bunch of lawsuits attacking it brought by the GOP. Some may make it up the ladder. If so, there's a possibility that some provisions may be struck down by SCOTUS. 5/
If so, the issue of severability could be HUGE re. #HR1.

Here's a *simplified* list of voting expansion/election reform items:

-Automatic/E-Day registration
-2 weeks early voting
-Expand vote by mail
-Stop voter purging
-Independent redistricting
-Public financing elections 6/
While ALL of these are extremely important, I could see a scenario in which, say, the public financing and/or anti-gerrymandering provisions get struck down but the rest is upheld, for instance.

Severability is key. Even if SCOTUS killed part of HR1, most of it should survive.

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More from @charles_gaba

3 Mar
"How dare Dems lower the relief check income threshold!"

Guess how much #COBRA normally costs laid-off employees? $7,300/yr for individuals, $21,000/yr for a family.

The prior #AmReliefPlan covered 85% of COBRA from April - Sept. This covers 100%.
kff.org/health-costs/r…
15% x $7,300 x 0.5yr = $550/person in additional savings.

15% x $21,000 x 0.5yr = $1,575/family in additional savings.

I'm not saying that I support lowering the threshold, I'm just saying that you need to look at what they're doing with that money instead.
The $1,400 checks were originally going to phase out by $100K. Now that’s down to $80K. Let’s assume the median income impacted earns $90K, so is “losing” $700.

If they qualify for COBRA, this would cancel out $550 of that on average. Not all, but a lot of it.
Read 5 tweets
3 Mar
Excellent summary of the situation by @xpostfactoid.

Any time you hear a conservative whine about how "expensive" #ACA subsidies are for taxpayers, remind them that there's a simple solution for that which WOULDN'T require eliminating or even hurting private insurance markets.
According to @MedicaidGov, Medicaid costs an average of around $6,200 per enrollee per year to cover nearly 100% of their expenses, paid for by a combination of federal + state governments.

medicaid.gov/state-overview…
Average cost per *subsidized* #ACA enrollee? Around $5,900/year to cover ~70% of their expenses. Tack on another ~$1,100/ea in annual premiums for subsidized enrollees & the other 30% in out of pocket costs and you're up to ~$9,500 or so.
acasignups.net/21/02/17/cbo-r…
Read 6 tweets
3 Mar
📣 BOOM: @CMSGov announces 206K #ACA exchange enrollments in first 2 weeks of #COVID19 Enrollment Period, over 3x higher than average:
acasignups.net/21/03/03/boom-…
HIGHLIGHTS:
--These are NEW enrollees only, not "switchers"

--3.15x higher than the 2019/2020 avg.

--141K more SEP enrollees than avg. for same period
--Kentucky has had the smallest SEP increase (25%); South Carolina the largest (400%) for reasons unknown

--Extrapolated out, this suggests perhaps 286K COVID SEP enrollments nationally, or ~196K more than average for the same time period.
Read 4 tweets
2 Mar
Breaking: GOP is now open to raising the federal minimum wage by 38%. It’s a start.
GOP says $10. Manchin says $11. Try to settle on $12 WITH indexing but WITHOUT subminimums for disabled, tipped, etc. Flip a couple more seats in 2022, kill the filibuster THEN and push for $15 from there.
secure.actblue.com/donate/senateb…
“Why water it down if they won’t vote for it anyway?” ...because Manchin/Sinema are insisting on 60 votes. If they won’t vote for it anyway it’s irrelevant.
Read 4 tweets
2 Mar
📣 For those wondering, re. @LaurenUnderwood's example of a family of four saving $8,000/year in premiums: It's actually conceivable that a family earning slightly more than the current subsidy cut-off (around $105,000/yr) could save as much as $24,000/year. That's not a typo. 1/
The actual current income threshold for a family of 4 is a bit higher than the $100K figure she mentioned (it's $104,800 this year, $106,000 in 2022), but otherwise she's actually *understating* the potential savings by using a rough national average. 2/
ON AVERAGE NATIONALLY, a 40-yr old couple with 2 children age 12 & 10 earning $105K this year would save $610/month or $7,300/year.

In Lapeer County, MI the same family would save $4,600/yr.

In Kay County, OK the same family would save a whopping $2,000/month. 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets

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