⭐️Our U.S. 7-day average is now 2.01M doses/day, the first time above 2M. This appears to be driven by a combo of winter-storm make-up doses + increasing supply.
📊1.91M doses today; 7-day 2.01M
🇺🇸US: 80.5M doses total
If there's a significant pull-back after the storm make-up bump, this could slip back down. But between J&J doses going into arms this week + rising shipments of about 15M doses/week, that seems unlikely/short-lived.
We have our usual update coming later tonight, and I'll thread it here. But in the meantime we have a very important methodology update about how we get data + count doses.
Short version: CDC made major changes in how they attribute doses to states, in a way that makes their data non-comparable with state-produced data. Unless something changed, we will be using CDC data for the U.S. going forward. Read the details here:
Upside: It places Defense Dept. vaccinations in the place where people reside. That's important -- the 1918 flu is thought to have started in a military base in Kansas. These federal categories aren't abstract.
1/ As of this afternoon, CDC is assigning doses given to people in federal entities TO the states where they reside. This significantly affects the CDC's state totals in a way that makes them harder to compare to state dashboards
2/ This amounts to about 3 million doses. This makes it much harder for us to compare what states report to what CDC reports, which is a big part of our model. (Federal entity numbers are not typically included in state-reported vaccine tallies.)
You can see how various groups are getting vaccinated vs their populations. Black and Hispanic populations are being vaccinated below their population shares, while some groups are getting vaccinated above.
Because many states don't report the data, on don't have great data completeness, we've integrated state-by-state data quality rankings -- you can explore them here: bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…
New cases in the U.S. continue to fall after the holiday surge. This chart plots total vaccinations vs confirmed cases. More vaccine = more impact on driving down new cases. The leveling off there is (probably mostly) from post-holiday decline.