Latest REACT-1 study now published suggesting prevalence of COVID in England of 0.5% between 4th-23rd Feb (round 9).
Two-thirds lower than the 1.6% reported over the same period in Jan (round 8).
But big variation by region, ethnicity, and deprivation. 1/4
Higher chance of infection among Asian ethnic groups, if more deprived, bigger households, and if health/care worker. 2/4
And whilst still declining everywhere, higher prevalence in NE, London, East Mids, with some signs that falls are stalling in London, West Mids, and SE.
Finally, lowest prevalence in 65+ but big drops across the board. 3/4
The slow down in decline & higher case rates among more deprived/younger/more industrial regions points to the exposing again of the structural inequalities driving COVID transmission - e.g. can't work at home, multi-generational/multiple occupancy HHs, support infrastructure 4/4
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And check out how rates in 80+y/o were tracking with those aged 20-60yrs
but over the last few weeks the rate of decline has accelerated to track more closely with those aged 60-80yrs.
After positivity went a bit wild last week (half term and therefore far fewer LFDs being done) reassuring it's back to similar trends to the week before.
Having said this, pillar 2 positivity is really hard to interpret now as includes LFDs and PCR.
I know others will have found these things before me but I've been home-schooling all day so only getting round to reading the roadmap now.
A few things stick out on first pass
(tl,dr: inequalities, testing, isolation support, social care, and inequalities).
There's a section on 'Test, Trace and Isolate' (who says NHS Test and Trace has a branding problem).
As expected, big focus on testing plus a further £400m for local gov through the contain outbreak mgmt fund - details tbc but likely much is for local testing/variant mgmt.
As have said, there remains a big challenge of people not getting tested in the first place (fear of being unable to isolate, job insecurity, caring responsibilities etc). Surveys suggest just 1/3 get tested regularly if symptomatic.
Case rates and positivity falling relatively fast. And across all ages.
Percentage of tests positive also falling, but this pillar 2 (community testing) graph has also been causing people some concern re young school children and returning to school - despite reported case rates being the lowest of all age gps.