And check out how rates in 80+y/o were tracking with those aged 20-60yrs
but over the last few weeks the rate of decline has accelerated to track more closely with those aged 60-80yrs.
After positivity went a bit wild last week (half term and therefore far fewer LFDs being done) reassuring it's back to similar trends to the week before.
Having said this, pillar 2 positivity is really hard to interpret now as includes LFDs and PCR.
PHE do publish an overall chart of PCR and LFD positivity.
Can see the big drop in LFD use for half term week and how overall LFD positivity is just 0.3% compared with 3.6% for PCR tests
Case rates dropping across regions, with clear lower rates in the south (SE, SW, East Mid, London) compared with the north.
London picture here is different to today's REACT study prevalence data, so worth interpreting how PHE data might relate to pop'n prevalence with caution.
The deprivation data between REACT and PHE does correlate, however.
People from more deprived areas persistently have higher infection rates.
For brief summary of today's REACT study findings, see here
The differences in cases rates by ethnicity persist but are less striking that at the January peak.
REACT shows still important differences in infection prevalence (and note - REACT is a representative population sample whereas PHE is only people who choose to get tested)
Despite drop in cases among over 70y/o, there's no big change in number of outbreaks reported in care homes.
It may be that these result in less hospitalisations/deaths than before (see later in thread) but it's still v important to vaccinate any unvaccinated staff/residents
Reported outbreaks in hospitals and workplaces remain unchanged.
And there's a particularly striking fall in outbreaks reported to PHE in educational settings. Not sure why.
When it comes to hospital admission rates, these are still falling relatively quickly for all ages, and especially 75+.
Also falling in all regions although there's a lag in West Mids.
However, despite care rates falling, the total number in hospital is still only just dipped below the November peak.
For ICU, despite younger people generally being those admitted and much of that population unlikely yet to be vaccinated, the fall in admission rates is really encouraging.
Falling as fast among 45-64y/o as 65-74y/o.
It's also falling across all regions, although notably not as quickly in East Mids and Yorkshire and Humber
And whilst admission rates are falling, ICU bed use is still considerably higher than Nov peak.
Finally, deaths rates still plummeting and excess mortality suggests we may be getting closer to what would be expected this time of the year
(some caution - there is always a delay in the most recent death registrations and this year there's absolutely no flu)
All in all, it's a relatively good picture as we get closer to opening schools, although there are still a lot of people in hospital.
And until we meaningfully engage in the underlying structural drivers, inequalities will persist.
Latest REACT-1 study now published suggesting prevalence of COVID in England of 0.5% between 4th-23rd Feb (round 9).
Two-thirds lower than the 1.6% reported over the same period in Jan (round 8).
But big variation by region, ethnicity, and deprivation. 1/4
Higher chance of infection among Asian ethnic groups, if more deprived, bigger households, and if health/care worker. 2/4
And whilst still declining everywhere, higher prevalence in NE, London, East Mids, with some signs that falls are stalling in London, West Mids, and SE.
Finally, lowest prevalence in 65+ but big drops across the board. 3/4
I know others will have found these things before me but I've been home-schooling all day so only getting round to reading the roadmap now.
A few things stick out on first pass
(tl,dr: inequalities, testing, isolation support, social care, and inequalities).
There's a section on 'Test, Trace and Isolate' (who says NHS Test and Trace has a branding problem).
As expected, big focus on testing plus a further £400m for local gov through the contain outbreak mgmt fund - details tbc but likely much is for local testing/variant mgmt.
As have said, there remains a big challenge of people not getting tested in the first place (fear of being unable to isolate, job insecurity, caring responsibilities etc). Surveys suggest just 1/3 get tested regularly if symptomatic.
Case rates and positivity falling relatively fast. And across all ages.
Percentage of tests positive also falling, but this pillar 2 (community testing) graph has also been causing people some concern re young school children and returning to school - despite reported case rates being the lowest of all age gps.