1) During the second wave, Quebec has rejected air purifiers in classrooms, claiming these devices could be dangerous in the #pandemic. In this thread, I will show how those Montreal schools that did install air cleaners have reported fewer outbreaks involving the variants.
2) For this analysis, I’m indebted to the meticulous statistics compiled by Olivier Drouin of covidecolesquebec.org, who is a finalist for an international prize to be presented by DataHeroAwards.org. (Go vote for Olivier by clicking on this link: dataheroawards.org/tag/finalist-t… )
3) To date, a total of nine Montreal public schools have declared #COVID19 outbreaks involving suspected or presumptive variants, most likely the B.1.1.7 strain. Of the nine, seven schools do not have air purifiers, making them more vulnerable to #COVID19 contagion.
4) Two schools — Merton in Côte-St-Luc and Elizabeth Ballantyne in Montreal West — did install air purifiers, yet they ended up with #COVID19 cases involving the variants. This does not mean the air purifiers are ineffective, only that they’re not a miracle solution.
5) The English Montreal School and Lester B. Pearson boards went ahead and purchased air purifiers without Quebec's blessing. To my knowledge, no Lester B. Pearson school has yet reported an outbreak with variants, while two of the EMSB’s 29 schools with air purifiers did.
6) In contrast, no public French-language school overseen by the Education Ministry has been allowed air purifiers. Six of those Montreal schools have #COVID19 variant outbreaks. (The public English-language Dante School has a cluster, too, but it doesn’t have air purifiers.)
7) Clearly, this is far from an exhaustive analysis, nor is it a scientific one. But I submit that the preliminary data suggest that air purifiers are an effective tool in the arsenal against the more contagious variants at this perilous point in the #pandemic.
8) What’s more, the U.S. Centers for Disease control earlier this week recommended air purifiers for in-person learning in schools. Meanwhile on Saturday, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in schools across Quebec rose by 11 to 247, the only sector to witness an increase.
9) Also Saturday, three more schools and a daycare in the greater Montreal region disclosed #COVID19 clusters of suspected or presumptive variant cases. It’s fair to assume once poorly ventilated schools reopen on Monday after the March break, such cases will rise. End of thread.
Addendum: The following charts are reproduced here, as I could not fit them into tonight’s thread. In the chart below, Montreal remains in a plateau of daily #COVID19 cases in the 300 range. Imagine what the numbers would be without B.1.1.7 on the rise in Montreal.
Addendum 2: At the neighborhood level, transmission of the #coronavirus — and likely B.1.1.7 — is once again surging in Montreal’s densely populated health district of Côte-des-Neiges, Parc-Extension and downtown. See the chart below.
Addendum 3: Finally, Montreal added four #COVID19 fatalities for a death toll of 4,536. For context only: the city of Paris is now reporting far more daily fatalities than Montreal amid the B.1.1.7 surge, but its official death toll stands at 3,303.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

8 Mar
1) As Quebec ramps up #COVID19 vaccinations and is likely to surpass its goal of inoculating 650,000 people by the end of March, it’s now facing what is known as the “Peltzman Effect” — lowering one’s guard in a risky situation. Ironically, this is mostly due to the vaccines.
2) University of Chicago economist Sam Peltzman first described this phenomenon in 1975 in which people adopt riskier behavior in response to visible safety measures like widespread vaccination. Credit goes to physician-scientist @EricTopol for tweeting about this recently. Image
3) Evidence is emerging of the Peltzman Effect in Quebec. On Saturday night, provincial and municipal police broke up an illegal gathering in a ski resort near Quebec City, fining 36 partygoers a total of $54,800. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/il…
Read 10 tweets
5 Mar
1) Quebec on Friday reported that #COVID19 variants of concern are not only increasing rapidly but spreading geographically into new regions of the province. In this thread, I will examine the implications of this with the imminent reopening of schools.
2) In a chart below released Friday by Quebec’s public health institute, the Laurentians have gone from reporting zero confirmed cases of the super contagious B.1.1.7 variant to 10. Also worrisome is the sudden appearance of a B.1.351 variant case in this region.
3) B.1.351, which originated in South Africa and for which vaccines are less effective, first made its appearance in Quebec in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. There are now 40 confirmed cases in that region. B.1.351 popping up in the Laurentians suggests inter-regional transmission.
Read 11 tweets
4 Mar
1) Despite the welcome ramp-up in #COVID19 vaccinations, several disturbing facts emerged on Thursday in Montreal and across Quebec suggesting that either the second wave of the #pandemic is far from over, or that a third wave may have already begun.
2) Provincially, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace rose for a second day in a row, up to 275 from 252 two days earlier. At this stage, it’s hard to gauge whether this increase is being driven by the more transmissible variants of concern.
3) But Quebec’s public health institute did declare its biggest single-day increase in the number of presumptive #COVID19 cases involving variants, with a cumulative total of 1,353, up by 133. The number of confirmed cases remained at 137.
Read 11 tweets
4 Mar
1) Premier François Legault warned on Wednesday evening that the Montreal region will be hit with an increase in the next few weeks of #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations fueled by the B.1.1.7 variant from the U.K. In this thread, I will assess the likelihood of this occurring.
2) Health Minister Christian Dubé noted that projections to be unveiled on Thursday morning will include a scenario of 2,000 to 3,000 daily #COVID19 cases and a range of 1,500 to 2,000 hospitalizations, back to where Quebec was in early January.
3) Dubé made those remarks after Quebec’s public health institute reported 125 more presumptive #COVID19 cases involving variants of concern, for a total of 1,220. The number of confirmed cases has remained at 137. Please see the chart below.
Read 15 tweets
3 Mar
1) Strange things are now happening in the #pandemic in Montreal at this juncture, with #COVID19 cases plummeting but hospitalizations rising, and the much more contagious B.1.1.7 variant circulating. In this thread, I will try to make sense of these cross currents.
2) For three days in a row, #COVID19 hospitalizations have crept up in Montreal. The total rose by six to 358 on Tuesday, with the Jewish General, Sainte-Justine, the Royal Victoria, the Lakeshore General, Santa Cabrini and Notre Dame posting modest increases in admissions.
3) Normally in this #pandmemic, #COVID19 cases increase first, followed by a rise in hospitalizations about two weeks later and then a spike in deaths two or three weeks afterward. But in the last few days, hospitalizations have gone up as cases have dwindled.
Read 11 tweets
2 Mar
1) As Quebec on Monday posted 51 more presumptive cases involving the more contagious #COVID19 variants, new projections warn the province could be hit with a third wave in March and April that's much higher than the previous two.
2) Simon Fraser University researchers Elisha Are and Caroline Colijn wrote in a blog posting on Monday that most of Canada has been able to control #COVID19 recently, but they suggested that the B.1.1.7 variant (now spreading through Montreal) poses a much bigger problem.
3) Should B.1.1.7 become established, Quebec and five other provinces could be sideswiped by exponential growth in #COVID19 cases, with a doubling time of one to two weeks, compared to earlier doubling times of up to 40 days in Ontario. Please see the chart below for Quebec.
Read 10 tweets

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