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Aaron Derfel

5 Mar, 11 tweets, 4 min read

1) Quebec on Friday reported that #COVID19 variants of concern are not only increasing rapidly but spreading geographically into new regions of the province. In this thread, I will examine the implications of this with the imminent reopening of schools.

2) In a chart below released Friday by Quebec’s public health institute, the Laurentians have gone from reporting zero confirmed cases of the super contagious B.1.1.7 variant to 10. Also worrisome is the sudden appearance of a B.1.351 variant case in this region.

3) B.1.351, which originated in South Africa and for which vaccines are less effective, first made its appearance in Quebec in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. There are now 40 confirmed cases in that region. B.1.351 popping up in the Laurentians suggests inter-regional transmission.

4) B.1.1.7, however, is spreading much faster than B.1.351 in Quebec, increasing by two cases to three in the Eastern Townships, by eight to 15 in Laval and by 32 to 116 in Montreal. Government projections warn B.1.1.7 could become predominant in Montreal by the end of March.

5) What’s also of concern is that the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) cannot pinpoint the exact location of four confirmed cases of B.1.1.7 and one of B.1.351, again raising the prospect of inter-regional transmission of the variants.

6) And Quebec is not just beset by these two variants, but a third one likely from California. The California variant, B.1.429, has been responsible for a surge in cases in Los Angeles. Montreal had one such confirmed case; it might have a second one now, according to the chart.

7) The director of Montreal’s public health department, Dr. Mylène Drouin, noted Wednesday the proportion of new #COVID19 cases in the city linked to the more lethal B.1.1.7 variant rose from 12% last week to 16% in the past few days. The increase in Ontario is more dramatic.

8) Ontario to date has screened 24,354 #COVID19 specimens for the N501Y gene common to B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, and the cumulative positivity rate is 15.5%. But the most recent seven-day average has jumped to 27.5%. Please see the chart below.

9) Under the circumstances, it would behoove Quebec to follow Ontario’s lead in producing much more detailed reports on the variants of concern, including regional breakdowns of presumptive cases, and making this information public on the website of the Ministry of Health.

10) As of Friday, 6.1% of Quebec’s population has been vaccinated, and it looks like the province will surpass its goal of inoculating 650,000 people by the end of March. But the variants are probably spreading much faster than most people think.

11) And the variants have been circulating widely in schools. Earlier this week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control released its latest guidelines for in-person learning in schools. The C.D.C. recommends air purifiers, something Quebec still refuses to implement. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

7 Mar

1) During the second wave, Quebec has rejected air purifiers in classrooms, claiming these devices could be dangerous in the #pandemic. In this thread, I will show how those Montreal schools that did install air cleaners have reported fewer outbreaks involving the variants.

2) For this analysis, I’m indebted to the meticulous statistics compiled by Olivier Drouin of covidecolesquebec.org, who is a finalist for an international prize to be presented by DataHeroAwards.org. (Go vote for Olivier by clicking on this link: dataheroawards.org/tag/finalist-t… )

3) To date, a total of nine Montreal public schools have declared #COVID19 outbreaks involving suspected or presumptive variants, most likely the B.1.1.7 strain. Of the nine, seven schools do not have air purifiers, making them more vulnerable to #COVID19 contagion.

Read 12 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

4 Mar

1) Despite the welcome ramp-up in #COVID19 vaccinations, several disturbing facts emerged on Thursday in Montreal and across Quebec suggesting that either the second wave of the #pandemic is far from over, or that a third wave may have already begun.

2) Provincially, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace rose for a second day in a row, up to 275 from 252 two days earlier. At this stage, it’s hard to gauge whether this increase is being driven by the more transmissible variants of concern.

3) But Quebec’s public health institute did declare its biggest single-day increase in the number of presumptive #COVID19 cases involving variants, with a cumulative total of 1,353, up by 133. The number of confirmed cases remained at 137.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

4 Mar

1) Premier François Legault warned on Wednesday evening that the Montreal region will be hit with an increase in the next few weeks of #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations fueled by the B.1.1.7 variant from the U.K. In this thread, I will assess the likelihood of this occurring.

2) Health Minister Christian Dubé noted that projections to be unveiled on Thursday morning will include a scenario of 2,000 to 3,000 daily #COVID19 cases and a range of 1,500 to 2,000 hospitalizations, back to where Quebec was in early January.

3) Dubé made those remarks after Quebec’s public health institute reported 125 more presumptive #COVID19 cases involving variants of concern, for a total of 1,220. The number of confirmed cases has remained at 137. Please see the chart below.

Read 15 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

3 Mar

1) Strange things are now happening in the #pandemic in Montreal at this juncture, with #COVID19 cases plummeting but hospitalizations rising, and the much more contagious B.1.1.7 variant circulating. In this thread, I will try to make sense of these cross currents.

2) For three days in a row, #COVID19 hospitalizations have crept up in Montreal. The total rose by six to 358 on Tuesday, with the Jewish General, Sainte-Justine, the Royal Victoria, the Lakeshore General, Santa Cabrini and Notre Dame posting modest increases in admissions.

3) Normally in this #pandmemic, #COVID19 cases increase first, followed by a rise in hospitalizations about two weeks later and then a spike in deaths two or three weeks afterward. But in the last few days, hospitalizations have gone up as cases have dwindled.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

2 Mar

1) As Quebec on Monday posted 51 more presumptive cases involving the more contagious #COVID19 variants, new projections warn the province could be hit with a third wave in March and April that's much higher than the previous two.

2) Simon Fraser University researchers Elisha Are and Caroline Colijn wrote in a blog posting on Monday that most of Canada has been able to control #COVID19 recently, but they suggested that the B.1.1.7 variant (now spreading through Montreal) poses a much bigger problem.

3) Should B.1.1.7 become established, Quebec and five other provinces could be sideswiped by exponential growth in #COVID19 cases, with a doubling time of one to two weeks, compared to earlier doubling times of up to 40 days in Ontario. Please see the chart below for Quebec.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

28 Feb

1) Quebec on Sunday confirmed that the more contagious #COVID19 variants are indeed spreading across the province. This news comes amid a second outbreak in an eldercare home and an uptick in #pandemic hospitalizations in Montreal.

2) In the chart below, Quebec’s public health institute confirmed another 103 variant cases for a total of 137. Most involve the B.1.1.7 variant in Montreal. Six more were found in Laval and two in Lanaudière. B.1.1.7, originating in the U.K., is considered 50% more contagious.

3) Authorities also confirmed through genetic sequencing 38 more cases of the B.1.351 variant which first appeared in South Africa. Quebec now has far more cases of the B.1.351 variant than any another province in Canada.

Read 10 tweets

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