Thread by @hthjones

Today's @thesundaytimes Inside No 10 piece, via @ShippersUnbound, is full of the latest headlines for the upcoming Integrated Review. Let's take a look while you eat your Sunday morning cornflakes....

thetimes.co.uk/article/9m-bor…

Disclaimer - there'll probably be another of these tweets from @DefenceHQPress this weekend. Indeed, while none of this is yet actually confirmed on the record, I'd say that this close to the IR's publication, the below looks pretty darn likely.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQPress/status/1365579948442943490

So, take it all with some salt, but not *too* much salt - with just nine days until the first document is published, I'm confident relying on @thetimes and Shipman.

Let's dive in with the headlines, divided up by service.

Dates:

-The Integrated Review paper, 'Global Britain in a Competitive Age', will be published on March 16
-A more detailed paper on the MoD's plans for modernisation will come on March 22

[All images via defenceimagery.mod.uk, unless otherwise stated]

British Army:

-Reduction in personnel by 10,000 by 2024
-Further 2,500 reduction by 2030

A reminder of the current situation (as of October 2020):

-Current required size: 82,050
-Current actual size: 80,040
-'Full-time Trade Trained Strength' (Nerd-speak for the number fully trained): 75,310

[Stats via: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…]

Per The Times therefore, that sounds like ~72k by 2024, and ~70k by 2030.

The intention is to do this via cutting recruitment, *not* making personnel redundant.

The nitty-gritty:

-The 'war-fighting' division (maybe 3 Div, maybe 1 Div, happy to be corrected?) will be reduced from four to two armoured brigades
-23 'battalion-sized units' will be shrunk or disbanded completely

-The upgrade of 600 Warrior infantry fighting vehicles will be cancelled

Good piece from @harry_lye on this here: army-technology.com/features/uncer…

-The AS-90 will be scrapped and replaced later this decade
-89 howitzers from the 1970s will be scrapped (that sounds like L118 light guns, but not specified)

Royal Air Force:

-The UK's plan to order 138 F-35B jets will be reduced by 90

The initial order was for 48; 138 – 90 brings us neatly to 48, so it sounds as though that will be the final number.

-24 Typhoon jets will be retired early

-These two cost-saving measures will allow prioritising Tempest, set to enter service in 2035.

[Own photo & artist's impression]

-Sentinel and Islander will *not* be replaced

[Islander photo via britten-norman.com/1121bnpr/]

(For the nerds in the room; the Islander was transferred to the RAF in 2019, so ignore the livery above, it's an old photo.

janes.com/defence-news/n…)

-The UK's order for five E-7 Wedgetail aircraft will be reduced to three

-14 C-130J Hercules will be scrapped

-The BAe 146 will be replaced with leased aircraft

-The transport helicopter fleet will be cut by 45 (presumably this means a combo of Merlin Mk4, Chinook, and Puma, but again, unconfirmed)

Royal Navy:

The details here are a tad thin on the ground; looks like some Type 23 frigate retirements and potentially some submarine retirements, but honestly I'm just going to defer to @NavyLookout on this because I'm not well read-in enough on the navy's timeline.

Those are the key headlines.

There are are few other eye-catching bits and bobs in the piece, so do have a read.

Also, please and thanks #buyapaper.

thetimes.co.uk/article/9m-bor…

Your latest reminder; this is *not* yet confirmed. Bits of the above have already been reported, bits of it we all sort of knew already, but it's a great summary of the current thinking.

I'm trying to keep this thread succinct, *but* there are some great thoughts here from @FTusa284 on why the Army may be about to bear the brunt of cuts.

https://twitter.com/FTusa284/status/1364576331149770756

Also, a reminder of the economics of this - Defence cannot continue running a black hole.

Either A LOT more money is pumped in, or cuts are needed. That’s uncomfortable, but it’s the reality of a currently unaffordable plan.

ft.com/content/e4126a…

People won’t like it, but if you only have x amount of £ to work with, you need to make savings to safeguard future programmes.

Your final reminder because I go enjoy my Sunday:

The above has not yet been confirmed. It has been reported in @thesundaytimes. I am laying out the headlines via tweets.

You can and should take it with some amount of salt, by dint of a lack of formal confirmation.

Do not send me abusive DMs. I will simply block you. No matter the outcome of the IR, it probably won’t be my fault....

If you have an issue with the media reporting information, please vent it elsewhere.