Thread by @hthjones

First one to find a potential base wins a Mars Bar.

Ready, steady, GO

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1188448276493881351

Okay so lets work off the assumption that the eight helicopters were Black Hawks.

Top speed 350 km/h ish?

Oh hang on maybe Ospreys?

Right hypothetical 1: Black Hawks. 1 hour 10 mins, flying "very fast".

Very very rough number, 400km ish max distance from base to compound.

Radius from coordinates via @EliotHiggins.

Gonna struggle to get from Iraq to the compound in less than 1 hr 10 mins.

@EliotHiggins BUT if we're doing this with Ospreys, suddenly the possibilities are huge. @EliotHiggins

Then we could be looking at 600km ish.

Red circle: approximate max distance for Black Hawk
Blue circle: approximate max distance for Osprey.

(I need some #AvGeek input please guys)

@EliotHiggins Meh I think I'm assuming Black Hawks fly faster than they can. 155kts cruise speed so 287 km/h

@EliotHiggins New suggestion:

Black Hawks averaged 155kts (which is a pretty bold estimate on my part).

287km/h for 70 mins.

~330 km absolute max distance - may well be lower.

So estimate allowing for pretty high Black Hawk speed is troops came from one of:

-Turkey
-Cyprus
-Lebanon

Another consideration: Trump said eight aircraft.

Let's assume they're all the same type.

I've seen speculation that 70 personnel were involved (via @JenGriffinFNC)

Osprey can carry over 20 troops - there would be no need for eight of them. So Black Hawk more likely?

@JenGriffinFNC Scrap all of the above. New info

https://twitter.com/LMartinezABC/status/1188462060180529152

Trump said they landed in a "friendly port in a friendly country"

Not gonna lie, this feels like maybe Cyprus?