Thread by @hthjones

JULY: Royal Marines seize the Grace 1. Iran protest and say the oil isn’t going to Syria.

AUGUST: Iran promises the oil definitely won’t go to Syria. Ship is released from Gibraltar (now called Adrian Darya-1)

SEPTEMBER: Oil is sold to Syria.

Iran has just played the West.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1170708652472320002

Let’s look at what this means and what damage has been done - it’s time for a Henry Thread™

July 4: Grace 1 is seized by the Royal Marines in Gibraltar, on suspicion of carrying oil to Syria in breach of EU sanctions.

Gibraltar's Chief Minister Fabian Picardo later said “What we found aboard the vessel has confirmed the view that we took was the correct view.”

As an aside, did Whitehall adequately anticipate what the Iranian response would be?

Had Whitehall known Iran would retaliate by seizing a British tanker, would they have seized the Grace 1?

Worth thinking about that point.

Anyways, back to the thread. Iran obviously denied the tanker was headed for Syria.

Gibraltar’s authorities were convinced however that it was, based on what they found when they searched the vessel.

Then on July 11, HMS Montrose (permanently station in the Gulf) prevented an Iranian attempt to seize the UK-flagged tanker British Heritage.

Montrose was able to position herself between the tanker and the IRGC.

That night was the closest I've been to firing warning shots in my career” one sailor on board HMS Montrose later told @AliBunkallSKY.

news.sky.com/story/how-the-…

Then on July 20, the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero was seized by the IRGC.

HMS Montrose was too far away to prevent the seizure.

This is where the clock started ticking. Iran had just breached international law by seizing a vessel exercising freedom of navigation.

In order to uphold international law, there needed to be a response that would demonstrate that such a move was unacceptable.

This is issue 1. The Stena Impero is still being held (yes I know her crew have been released).

To all intents and purposes, Iran (mostly) got away with the seizure. They won. They were able to frame the move as tit-for-tat. They gained more from the seizure than they lost.

Moreover, they very slightly changed international precedent.

Every time a state does something in breach of international law, and gets away with it, the rules-based international order breaks a little bit more.

There’s absolutely no point in a rules-based system if said rules aren’t going to be/can’t be upheld.

Every time the system is flouted, the world becomes less safe and more anarchic.

Issue number 2 is the Grace 1 (now Adrian Darya-1).

Iran assured Gibraltar that it wouldn’t go to Syria. (The US didn’t fall for this, applying to Gibraltar for an extension to the ship’s detention).

But the ship was let go, and it went and did exactly what Iran told the West that it wouldn’t.

Tehran has therefore won this whole sorry episode. They’ve gained from it. There’s very little to deter them from executing similar moves again.