Thread by @hthjones

THREAD: we need to monitor the situation in Kashmir.

#KashmirTroopBoost is trending in both India and Pakistan.

I'm going to start this thread in case things escalate. The Foreign Office updated their travel advice to the region yesterday (gov.uk/foreign-travel…).

Whilst the usual suspects have been keeping up with the situation (@ELINTNews @IntelCrab etc), western media have so far ignored it (as they did in the February 2019 tensions).

So, time for an update: what do you need to know?

@ELINTNews @IntelCrab I want to be very careful about linking different events - it's quite hard to do a simple 'cause and effect' analysis of this.

In brief: people have been fleeing the region for the past few days amid fears of both unrest and attacks.

Every year, devout Hindu pilgrims trek to the holy Amarnath cave. It is widely considered to be one of the holiest shrines in Hinduism.

But on Friday, an Indian security official said a mine with Pakistani markings had been found following intelligence reports of likely attacks on the routes used to get to the cave.

The local government essentially cancelled the pilgrimage, asking people to return home.

A US-made sniper rifle (pictured) was also found, believed to have been transported from Pakistan

Slightly stuck for numbers leaving. I've seen lots of speculation, ranging from 20,000 to 200,000.

If anyone can shed some light, please do. But it's fairly safe to say that people are leaving quickly in significant numbers.

It's also worth saying that tensions have been high for months.

I covered the situation when it got really dicey in February, but it hasn't really cooled off here.

There are plenty of long articles/YouTube videos about the history of Kashmir if people are interested - but in short, the tensions run deep.

There have also been attacks going on along the Line of Control (LoC).

As is to be expected, both sides have blamed the other, usual social media as their tool. The below is from Pakistan's Foreign Minister 👇

https://twitter.com/SMQureshiPTI/status/1157614773732892672

There's a massive troop deployment going on too, hence the #KashmirTroopBoost trending hashtag.

India announced last week that it would deploy an extra 10,000 troops. There's SO much speculation on why this is, and so I'm naturally really cautious of passing judgment on that.

I'm not going to try and list everything going on, but there's a real sense of panic and unrest.

People have been stockpiling fuel (image via @AzaanJavaid), and last week Indian Railway staff in Kashmir were told to stock enough food to last four months...

There have also been reports of Indian security forces taking over the National Institute of Technology after students were evacuated.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1157651758182752256

I learnt last time to be really careful of reports of fatalities. They tended to be exaggerated, and there was a massive amount of misinformation.

That said, it looks as though some civilians have been killed, especially along the LoC.

There's some suggestion too that Indian soldiers have been killed, but pinch of salt probably needed.

If this is all kicking off again, we need to be careful of misinformation from both 🇮🇳 and 🇵🇰

That almost brings us to today.

If you need more background, I suggest following @ReutersIndia and @ReutersPakistan for the broader picture.

Obviously if you don't already, @air_intel, @IntelDoge, @AuroraIntel, @ELINTNews, and @IntelCrab are great for live updates.

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab Earlier today Pakistan accused India of using cluster bombs, killing two civilians and wounding 11.

India denied this in a statement: “Such responses are only against military targets and infiltrating terrorists who are aided by Pakistan army"

https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/status/1157616216472727553

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab NEW: national ambassadors to Pakistan (including the UK's) have been briefed in Islamabad by Foreign Secretary Sohail Mahmood on alleged Indian use of cluster bombs.

#Kashmir #KashmirTroopBoost

Via @AnasMallick

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab @AnasMallick A hospital in the region has told staff that they can't leave without written permission due to the "prevailing situation"

#Kashmir

Via @Kaifyjaaan

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab @AnasMallick @Kaifyjaaan This would indicate that people are cancelling their trips to the region....wonder why that could be?

https://twitter.com/the_hindu/status/1157695014706634752

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab @AnasMallick @Kaifyjaaan Massive pinch of salt needed here, but there's a report that the number of Indian troops in the region has hit 180,000.

https://twitter.com/ahmermkhan/status/1157697178581655553

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab @AnasMallick @Kaifyjaaan NEW: police and other officials in #kashmir have been instructed to keep their phones on and not leave their stations 👇

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab @AnasMallick @Kaifyjaaan As said here - should be taken with a pinch of salt, but there have been some sightings of tanks this evening

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1157707363413123077

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab @AnasMallick @Kaifyjaaan NEW: reports that India have deployed Bofors 40mm guns to the region.

Pakistan already have a deployment of Swiss Oerlikon guns at the LoC.

Each deployment by either India or Pakistan will always be responded to by the other.

Via @miqazi

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab @AnasMallick @Kaifyjaaan @miqazi Statement from @ForeignOfficePk: “Pakistan rejects the self-serving Indian assertions of “intelligence inputs” about some imminent “terrorist” attack in IOK as a justification for new deployments. This is a familiar Indian ploy to externalize blame”

Via
@AnasMallick

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab @AnasMallick @Kaifyjaaan @miqazi @ForeignOfficePk Looks like reports that the India have blocked various Pakistani new websites are false.

Great example of some of the fun misinformation that needs to be waded through.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1157711584157949952

@ReutersIndia @ReutersPakistan @air_intel @IntelDoge @AuroraIntel @ELINTNews @IntelCrab @AnasMallick @Kaifyjaaan @miqazi @ForeignOfficePk NEW statement from Pakistan (@MoIB_Official): "There is deepening anxiety and fear among the people of IOK because of reports of deployment of additional 38,000 Indian paramilitary forces in recent weeks"

CONTINUED: "Speculation has mounted that the Indian authorities might attempt to alter the demographic structure in IOK. Pakistan is strongly opposed to any move that would seek to alter the demographic structure of IOK or change the internationally-disputed nature of Kashmir"

Pakistan claim a four year old child was killed by Indian cluster bombs along the LoC.

India have denied this claim.

Crucial bit of the statement: "Pakistan calls upon the international community to...urge India to act responsibly, and counsel India to work towards preserving rather than imperiling peace and security in South Asia"

Read in full here - pid.gov.pk/site/press_det…

Pakistani media spinning the situation as India planning a genocide. A pretty irresponsible claim but one that'll benefit them nonetheless 👇👇

https://twitter.com/TimesofIslambad/status/1157723969241395200

This is an important development - opens the door for a telecommunications blackout if the local government choose.

#Kashmir

https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1158033063013691392

The situation remains tense this afternoon.

Military photographed in Srinagar, Kashmir, by @DeccanHerald.

@DeccanHerald At a meeting this morning, Pakistani Prime Minister @ImranKhanPTI said "'Pakistan will respond at fullest to any Indian aggression or misadventure"

Via @schaheid

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid I've spent most of this afternoon looking through local tweets and DMing people in the region. It feels as though people expect a curfew tonight, along with an internet blackout.

Sat phones issued. @Natsecjeff reporting police have closed some roads.

https://twitter.com/killme49/status/1158034569943064577

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff One of the districts in southern Kashmir has issued a ban on all petrol sales until further notice.

H/t @IntelCrab

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab Meanwhile hospital staff have been issued a "curfew pass"

Really looks as though a curfew is on the cards now.

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab Statement from the OIC 👇

https://twitter.com/OIC_OCI/status/1157995757217243137

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab NEW: observers from the United Nations have arrived in Neelam Valley, #Kashmir, to investigate claims of a cluster bomb attack.

H/t @IntelCrab

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab Worth adding the caveat that those photos will be from a few hours ago - it's dark now in Kashmir.

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab Looks as though the communications blackout is beginning 👇👇

https://twitter.com/Adil_Lateef/status/1158063192968314880

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab BREAKING: this message has begun to appear on iPhones across Kashmir

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab I say "begun" - time differences. Currently 2306 in Kashmir so that screenshot was 16 mins ago.

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab It's super hard to verify this, but it came from @Iyervval.

Purporting to show troop deployment in Rajouri (south western Kashmir).

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab @Iyervval In other news, if you try to access the
pakistanarmy.gov.pk website from India, you now get this.

@DeccanHerald @ImranKhanPTI @schaheid @Natsecjeff @IntelCrab @Iyervval Statement from local government: "Government has imposed restrictions under section 144 CrPC in District Srinagar with effect from Midnight 5th August 2019 which shall remain in force till further orders"

Via
@AdityaRajKaul

CONTINUED: "As per the order there shall be no movement of public and all educational institutions shall also remain closed. There will be a complete bar on holding any kind of public meetings or rallies during the period of operation of this order"

CONTINUED again: "Identity cards of essential services officials will be treated as movement passes wherever required. However, there is no curfew in place as reported in a section of media"

I know they're saying it isn't a curfew, but it certainly sounds like it is...

BREAKING: @ahmermkhan has confirmation that all phone services have been suspended in the #Kashmir valley.

@ahmermkhan Right team, I better stop procrastinating and explain this.

It looks increasingly likely that India may revoke either Article 370 or Article 35A of its constitution. (Some believe they may actually revoke both).

In case that happens, we need to understand what these are and what the consequences may be.

Quick caveat - I'm merely an outsider looking in. If I've got any of this wrong, please just tell me 🙂

Let's start with Article 35A. People are passionate on both sides.

It gives the Jammu & Kashmir Legislature power to determine who the "permanent residents" of the state are. The article then provides special rights and privileges to these residents.

35A also allows the Legislature to impose restrictions on those not deemed permanent residents.

If revoked, there'd likely be considerable unrest. It would be seen as undermining the region.

On the technical front, the jurisdiction of India's Supreme Court would be reduced.

Article 370 is a bit different. It makes the state of Jammu and Kashmir autonomous.

The Indian Parliament cannot increase or reduce the borders of the state.

Citizens from other states cannot buy property in J&K.

It basically allows the region independence over all matters except foreign affairs, defence and communications.

In essence, if either of these are revoked there's going to be significant unrest and resistance.

Deploying Indian paramilitary to the region MAY be in anticipation of this, but may also not be - it's hard to tell.

Hopefully that makes sense. In the simplest terms, if 35A or 370 are revoked, things will get not good fairly quickly.

UPADTE overnight: India have announced their decision to scrap Article 370.

Whilst they didn't comment on 35A, the decision also essentially makes it null and void.

This was confirmed in a presidential notification.

The state will be bifurcated into two.

Ladakh will be a separate Union Territory and J&K will be another. #Article370

Via @NihaMasih

@NihaMasih India are now in the process of airlifting 8,000 extra troops to the region to maintain order.

Via @ahmermkhan

@NihaMasih @ahmermkhan Statement from Chief Minister of J&K, describing it as a "shocking" decision and a "total betrayal"

"A long and tough battle lies ahead."

@NihaMasih @ahmermkhan Statement from the former chief minister of J&K, saying the move makes India an occupying force 👇👇

https://twitter.com/MehboobaMufti/status/1158257894149615616

@NihaMasih @ahmermkhan NEW: report from @ANI saying that the Indian Army and Indian Air Force have been put on "high alert"

Curfew for journalists imposed in Srinagar 👇👇

https://twitter.com/ahmermkhan/status/1158285770706153472?s=21