Time to Update EU vacc data, where last week saw some noticeable developments. MT still by a margin the most vacc'ing EU member, but HU has now moved into 2., ahead of DK, CY and NO. BG, LV and (remarkably) NL CR LU remain bottom. Wealth and imminent elections matters not? 1/15
Some catchup among MS is happening, but divergence and vacc-speed remains far apart between top & bottom. Recent accelerations by HU, CY and NO show however that "convergence to the top" is possible. BG and LV similarly picked up speed, though NL and LU much less so (yet?). 2/15
More information is available from some MS for vacc-deliveries in March, allowing for rudimentary forecasting of vacc-speeds here MS until end-Q1. In DK, operating with essentially zero inventory (and a 100k/day large-scale test planned), no additional vacc-acceleration from 3/15
current daily vacc-levels of around 15-17k/day on average seems feasible on current expected March deliveries (J&J assumed only to arrive in Q2). Only vacc utilization rates > 100% would allow material DK acceleration. 4/15
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DK's vaccinationshastighed synes stagnerende - igaar 16-17k/dag. Det er imidlertid ca. det tempo man maa forvente i marts, jf. sidste uges SSI vaccine leverance update, samt annonceringen af en 100k/dag "stoerre skala test" i de kommende uger. 1 hurtig 1/n ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…
model viser at ca. 16.900/dag (+ en successfuld 100k/dag test) bruger de af SSI forventede vacciner vi faar i marts og indtil paaske. No great - men bedst tilgaengelige data @mikaelmilhoj? Inden man skriger paa handling fra @Statsmin og flere DK regeringsbesoeg hos 2/n
korruptionsanklagede ledere af hoejre-ekstreme koalitionsregeringer i valgkamp i ikke-vaccine producerende lande som ISR, saa gav @vonderleyen et interessant interview til TV i Mette F's "Best friend forever" @sebastiankurz's AT soendag med nogen 3/n orf.at/stories/320437…
:-) - so time to update EU vacc data (again), since some new developments (and data) have emerged. MT still by a margin the most vacc'ing EU member, but HU has now moved into 2., ahead of DK, CY and NO. @DrAlisonSmith kindly showed me the NL dashboard 1/15 coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/vacc…
with Dutch data (implying I've been misreporting the nationally available Dutch weekly data by jab). "old" data from Feb 28 now included, though if you use the March 6th total# for NL of ~1.6mn, you'd get 9.2% of total pop, or a place between AT and ES. Consistent data 2/15
remains challenging. Some catchup among MS is happening, but divergence and vacc-speed remains far apart between top & bottom. Recent accelerations by HU, CY and NO show however that "convergence to the top" is possible. BG and LV similarly picked up speed in recent weeks. 3/15
Updating EU vaccine data, two things stand out. 1) Good news = supply will quickly pick up now. 2) Far Less good new = no "convergence to the top" among EU MS, raising risk of lack of uniform rollout acceleration in coming weeks with higher supply. 1/11
MT remains by a margin the most efficient EU MS rollout (smallest pop MS likely benefit from lower threshold effects in supply = more vaccs/pop), followed by DK at 8.5%, high-jumper NO at 7.3% and PL at 7.2%. 2/11
At bottom BG = 1.7%, LT at 1.9%, CR at 3.5% and - remarkably for a rich (if frugal) country heading to polls soon - NL at 4.5%. LU (EU's richest member) at 4.6% shows money is not all (even if X-border worker effects play a role). 3/11
It is increasingly clear that the EU vaccine supply problems have bottomed out and that the news will be considerably better going forward. This shifts the "vaccine delivery problem" firmly on to the EU MS, whose capacity to quickly scale up roll outs may be severely tested. 1/n
Yesterday @EMA_News received the application for approval of the single-jab J&J/Jannsen vaccine, expected to come during the month of March. 3/n ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-re…
EU vaccine deliveries appear to be slipping from both @pfizer/@BioNTech_Group and @AstraZeneca, causing supply constraints to begin to bite in more MS. Yet despite increasing vaccination speeds in some MS and the EU claiming to be distributing vaccs by population differences 1/13
between member states remain stark on Jan 25 ranging from just 0.4% of total pop vacc'ed in BG, 0.8% in NL to 3.6% in DK and 4.5% in MT, while 2. jabs range from ZERO in 9 MS to 0.34% in SN and 0.46% in DK with an EU27+NO total of 1.9% and 0.12% 2. jabs. These remain HUGE 2/13
differences in MS rollouts, highlighting that actual supply constraints are not yet binding in many MS, and that if best practices for 1.+2. jab levels from DK/MT were achieved across the EU, millions of Europeans more would be vaccinated today. Assuming a pop-weighted 3/13
@joebiden wants 100mn Americans vaccinated in 100days - that means ~115mn or just over 1/3 of all Americans will have received at least first jab by late April. That frankly is a pretty timid and certainly NOT a moonshot, or even enough to get out of lockdowns soon enough. 1/13
@joebiden's plans though are much more ambitious than say France and @EmmanuelMacron, who outrageously just aims to vaccinate 15mn (a little more than 1/4 of pop) elderly and chronically ill before the summer. 2/13 gouvernement.fr/info-coronavir…
This suggests that the most EU countries, like France, which already lags the US in vaccinations- will continue to do so throughout the 1H of 2020 principally due to the unbelievably low level of ambition of their national vaccination programs. Only Denmark currently exceeds 3/13