Thread by @jfkirkegaard

:-) - so time to update EU vacc data (again), since some new developments (and data) have emerged. MT still by a margin the most vacc'ing EU member, but HU has now moved into 2., ahead of DK, CY and NO. @DrAlisonSmith kindly showed me the NL dashboard 1/15 coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/vacc…

with Dutch data (implying I've been misreporting the nationally available Dutch weekly data by jab). "old" data from Feb 28 now included, though if you use the March 6th total# for NL of ~1.6mn, you'd get 9.2% of total pop, or a place between AT and ES. Consistent data 2/15

remains challenging. Some catchup among MS is happening, but divergence and vacc-speed remains far apart between top & bottom. Recent accelerations by HU, CY and NO show however that "convergence to the top" is possible. BG and LV similarly picked up speed in recent weeks. 3/15

More information is available from some MS for vacc-deliveries in March, allowing for rudimentary forecasting of vacc-speeds here MS until end-Q1. In DK, operating with essentially zero inventory (and a 100k/day large-scale test planned), no additional vacc-acceleration from 4/15

current daily vacc-levels of around 15-17k/day on average seems feasible on current expected March deliveries (J&J assumed only to arrive in Q2). Only vacc utilization rates > 100% would allow material DK acceleration. 5/15

DE situation different. Vacc speed up >200k/day in recent days and March average daily vacc# depends on utilization. If DK levels by end-Q1 DE = ~395k/day; same "reserve" as now (~3mn) =~296k/day or same % as now (~70%) =~203k/day or no acceleration from now. DE has choice. 6/15

FR situation similar 2 DE. Daily vacc# up in recent days >200k/day, but March daily possible average depends on utilization. DK levels by end-Q1 = ~321k/day; same "reserve" (~2.1mn) =~248k/day, or same % (~72%) =~180k/day, or less than recent days. FR too has choice to make. 7/15

IT publishes no "expected vaccine delivery data". Latest reported supply on March 1, so likely more have arrived since, but implies 1-2mn doses in storage in Italy. I.e. no obvious "vacc# reason" for @MarioDraghiPdC to block AZ 250k shipment to AUS last week. 8/15

@MarioDraghiPdC decision likely good dom politics (with @matteosalvinimi in your gov...) and AUS has less infections than IT and many other countries and produce most AZ vaccines in AUS. YET, bad signal for EU trade openness nonetheless and highlights 9/15 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

how the "vaccine transparency mechanism" should - like the earlier EU PPE trade restriction - be allowed to expire at the earliest possible date on March 31 as EU supply up. Temptation by other MS to play politics with this surely too big a risk. 10/15 edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/eur…

@vonderleyen gave updated EU vacc supply in interview to Austrian media on March 7. 50mn in March and 100mn/month by Apr. These numbers SHOULD imply a major forward shift in the EU vaccination schedule, as they enable (assuming a limited # of J&J 11/15 orf.at/stories/320437…

single shot vaccines) vacc'ing of 70% of ~370mn 16y+ in EU+NO by JULY and prop 100% by SEP. IF you trust @vonderleyen's # (and she can hardly afford a(nother) public vacc-mishap), this seems HUGE good news - why isn't @EU_Commission making a bigger deal of it? And why not 12/15

update the @EU_Commission /EU vaccination target accordingly? Why not (like several MS) show some ambition and aim for 100% by July for all of EU? Seems plausible, given new vaccines and Sanofi/Novartis etc. production scheduled start in Q2. In any case, 70% of adults by 13/15

July would imply dramatically lower hospitalizations across EU and de facto likely full reopening (with vacc-pasport at least). In other words (virus variants permitting), a more or less normal summer seems quite plausible in EU - just like in the US/UK. Seems a big deal, no? END

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