I suspect there's something artificial about Ontario's case numbers because they no longer match hospitalization and death trends, nor comparable trends in neighbouring Québec.

Thread:
Charts demonstrating covid seasonality.

Neighbouring provinces of Ontario and Québec both peaked at virtually the same time. However, cases trending up again in Ontario - but not in Québec.
On the contrary, hospitalizations in both provinces are still trending downward in unison.
Likewise, deaths are also trending downward in both provinces.
Looking closely at Ontario specifically, the uptick in cases since early/mid February doesn't conform at all to the continued decline in hospitalizations and deaths.
Meanwhile in Québec, all three metrics continue to decline.

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More from @Milhouse_Van_Ho

11 Mar
Mortality in Canada (thread):

Here we have the total number of deaths in Canada over the past five years. Image
Zooming out nationally over the past decade, we see that it's natural for deaths in one year to exceed deaths in the previous year (blue line > 0%). Note that a year of low or negative growth is often followed by a year of much higher growth. Image
Here we have the chart you saw earlier now expressed as a rate per 100,000 people. Generally, a flatter trend in death rates would suggest that population growth may be a key factor driving growth in total deaths. Image
Read 17 tweets
10 Mar
Mise à jour du Québec

#covid19Qc #covid19canada #COVID19

Automne / hiver au Québec : On peut être en mesure de déclarer un pic quand croissance moyenne d'une semaine à l'autre s'approche de zéro.
Nombre total de cas et de décès liés à Covid-19 au Québec.
Nombre total de cas, de décès, et d’hospitalisations en cours liés à Covid-19 au Québec.
Read 8 tweets
10 Mar
Ontario update.

#covid19ontario #COVID19 #covid19Canada

Ontario Fall/Winter season: May be able to declare a peak when average week-over-week growth reaches zero.
Ontario covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and testing.
Ontario covid-19 cases, deaths, and testing.
Read 15 tweets
9 Mar
Greater Toronto update (thread).

#covid19 #covid19toronto #covid19ontario

City of Toronto cases, hospitalizations, deaths.
City of Toronto - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line).
Greater Toronto cases, hospitalizations, deaths.
Read 8 tweets
5 Mar
Ontario update.

#covid19ontario #COVID19 #covid19Canada

Ontario Fall/Winter season: May be able to declare a peak when average week-over-week growth reaches zero.
Ontario covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and testing.
Ontario covid-19 cases, deaths, and testing.
Read 15 tweets

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