Thread by @MoriartyLab

Mar 12

1 of every 41 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 62 BC
1 in 71 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 45 ON
1 in 28 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 1,310 deaths, 2,064 LTC/RH cases, 811 LTC/RH deaths

Mar 12

-#COVID19 is in top 4 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 1,310 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 1,100 Canadians may die in next 28 days

From Mar-Nov 14, 2020

For every excess death of Atlantic and Northern Canadians 45 years and older

This is how many excess deaths in same age group there were in other regions:

BC 62X
AB 39X
SK 51X
MB 24X
ON 65X
QC 108X
Canada outside Atlantic & Northern regions: 68X

From Mar-Nov 14, 2020

Estimated EXCESS DEATHS/100K in #Canada (all ages, and 45+ years) compared to REPORTED #COVID19 deaths/100K

From Mar-Nov 14, 2020

Estimated TOTAL EXCESS DEATHS in #Canada (all ages, and 45+ years) compared to TOTAL REPORTED #COVID19 DEATHS

Mar 12

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic & Northern #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19 this many people died of COVID-19 in other regions*

BC 7X
AB 11X
SK 8X
MB 16X
ON 12X
QC 30X

Rest of #Canada 14X
Rest of World 8X

*after adjusting for population differences

Mar 12

#COVID19 #Canada DEATHS since Feb 2020

Table: Deaths/100K & change last 7 days for provinces, Canada, rest of world

Graphs
-Total deaths (mid top)
-Total deaths per 100K (mid bottom)
-Wkly rate of change in deaths (bottom right)

Mar 12

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since Feb 2020

1 in 6 BC
1 in 7 AB
1 in 5 SK
1 in 4 MB
1 in 8 ON
1 in 4 QC

There are 2,064 LTC/RH cases in last 28 days

Mar 12

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic and Northern #Canadian in long-term care & retirement homes who DIED of #COVID19, this many people in LTC/RHs died of C19 in other regions*

BC 6X
AB 11X
SK 4X
MB 13X
ON 10X
QC 32X
#Canada 14X

*adjusted for population differences

Mar 12

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home DEATHS since Feb 2020

Tables: Per capita deaths + change last 7 days, % total deaths in LTC/RH

Graphs:
-Total & per capita values (L)
-% total deaths in LTC/RH (R top)

Mar 12

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic & Northern #Canadian DIAGNOSED with #COVID19 this many people were diagnosed with COVID-19 in other regions*

BC 9X
AB 17X
SK 14X
MB 13X
ON 12X
QC 19X
Rest of #Canada 13X
Rest of World 8X

*after adjusting for population differences

Mar 12

#COVID19 #Canada CASES since Feb 2020

Table: Cases/100K & change last 7 days for provinces, Canada, rest of world

Graphs
-Total cases (mid top)
-Total cases per 100K (mid bottom)
-Wkly rate of change in cases (bottom right)

Mar 12

Since Feb 2020

For every 1 Atlantic & Northern #Canadian in long-term care & retirement homes DIAGNOSED with #COVID19, this many people in LTC/RHs were DIAGNOSED in other regions*

BC 4X
AB 10X
SK 2X
MB 7X
ON 10X
QC 16X
#Canada 9X

*adjusted for population differences

Mar 12

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home CASES since Feb 2020

Tables: Per capita cases + change last 7 days, % total cases in LTC/RH

Graphs:
-Total & per capita values (L)
-% total cases in LTC/RH (R top)

Mar 12

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in CASES

WHY?

This shows:
1) if our efforts over the last month are helping
2) when there are warning signs that epidemic may be speeding up again.

Mar 12

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in HOSPITALIZATIONS

WHY?

This shows:
1) if our efforts over the last month are helping
2) when there are warning signs that hospitalizations may be speeding up again.

Mar 12

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in DEATHS

WHY?

Shows:
1) if efforts ONE MONTH AGO helped
2) warning clues if deaths may be speeding up

ALSO: Rates of change in deaths help us estimate effects of measures such as vaccination in LTC/RHs, where reporting is slow

Link to explainer of excess mortality estimates and what they mean:

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1370498078063656961?s=20

Sources of collated official data (in addition to @StatsCan_eng & provincial sites), with huge thanks:

@NoLore

@RyersonNIA

@CU_IIJ

@covid_canada

@OurWorldInData

Thank you to everyone protecting themselves & others by choosing vaccination.

/end