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12 Mar, 8 tweets, 5 min read
1) More transmissible #COVID19 cases have now spread all over Quebec to an extent that was not known previously by the public, according to a newly released chart by Quebec’s health institute. Please click on my updated story below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The latest data by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) also reveal the region of Abitibi-Témiscamingue has more than double the number of confirmed cases of the B.1.351 variant as all of Ontario, 95 to 41.
3) This is worrisome for several reasons. For much of the #pandemic, Abitibi-Témiscamingue had been spared the ravages of #COVID19. In addition to confirmed cases of B.1.351, the region has another 56 presumptive cases, likely of the strain that arose in South Africa.
4) The variant spread in the region even as Dr. Horacio Arruda reiterated that Abitibi-Témiscamingue's outbreaks were under control. And it was only after repeated requests in this Twitter thread that authorities finally released on Thursday a regional breakdown of the variants.
5) The experience in Abitibi-Témiscamingue could be viewed as a case study in what 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒕𝒐 𝒅𝒐 during a pandemic: reassure the public that the situation is under control when it might not be, and then not release important stats to the public in a timely fashion.
6) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 341 #COVID19 cases Thursday from 368 the day before, amid a drop in testing in the past three days. Hospitalizations due to the #pandemic declined by 11 to 323, with only one hospital, the Lakeshore General, reporting an increase in admissions.
7) Despite a dip in #COVID19 cases in schools, the Quebec Education Ministry reported the shuttering of three more classrooms and the closing of one more school. Four schools on Thursday declared suspected or presumptive variant cases, according to covidecolesquebec.org.
8) Throughout the #pandemic, Paris had recorded fewer #COVID19 deaths than Montreal. But as the B.1.1.7 variant has swept through the French capital, it’s now posting higher mortality stats than Montreal, declaring 16 deaths Thursday compared with five in Montreal. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel Profile picture
13 Mar
1) Montreal crossed another grim milestone in the pandemic Friday, with authorities confirming the city now has cases of all three of the more transmissible #COVID19 variants of concern. So what does this mean for the city? Please click on my column below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) As Dr. @MatthewOughton told me this afternoon, Montreal finds itself in a paradox at this point in time: facing a proliferation of the B.1.1.7 variant that was first detected in England, yet recording a drop in #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations since last month.
3) As the chart below reveals, 14 regions across Quebec are now grappling with presumptive variant cases, up from 13 from the day before. These cases will turn out to be any of the three variants: B.1.1.7; B.1.351 (originating in South Africa) or P.1 (sweeping Brazil). Image
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
11 Mar
1) Quebec declared for the first time Wednesday it has one case of the P.1 variant that’s been sweeping through Brazil, and revealed the number of cases of the B.1.351 strain from South Africa jumped by 54 to 94 in Abitibi-Temiscamingue. Please see below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Quebec may now be at another turning point in the #pandemic, with confirmation of the three variants of concern, as well as a strain from California. Still, it’s too early to tellwhether Wednesday’s uptick in #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations are due to the variants.
3) What we do know, though, is that the B.1.1.7 variant now comprises 20% of new #COVID19 cases in Montreal, up from about 15% since last week. And this increase has coincided with a rise in the number of outbreaks in the workplace. Please see the chart below.
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
10 Mar
1) Montreal authorities are alarmed by a sharp rise in cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in densely populated neighborhoods, where the positivity rate in the screening of COVID-19 samples has soared to as high as 25 per cent. Click on the link below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The chart below appears to show that Montreal has flattened the second wave in the #pandemic, thanks to public health restrictions and a #COVID19 vaccination blitz. This, of course, is truly welcome news, but the chart belies the lurking variants.
3) As I reported in my column in the @mtlgazette tonight, the variants are no longer proliferating in schools but in densely populated neighborhoods, too. Although authorities are quick to close schools with variant cases, what’s their plan for Montreal’s neighborhoods?
Read 9 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
9 Mar
1) Ontario’s associate chief medical officer warned Monday the province is recording “quite a significant increase” in the number of #COVID19 cases screening positive for the more contagious variants of concern. In this thread, I will examine what this might mean for Quebec.
2) But first, let me turn to Quebec’s latest figures on #COVID19 variant cases. The province reported on Monday a cumulative total of 255 confirmed variant cases, up by 61, and 1,732 presumptive cases, up by 32 from Sunday. Please see the chart below.
3) What’s noteworthy beyond the general increase is that the Capitale-Nationale region confirmed two B.1.1.7 cases for the first time, as did the Montérégie. Also for the first time, Lanudière confirmed a B.1.351 case.
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
8 Mar
1) As Quebec ramps up #COVID19 vaccinations and is likely to surpass its goal of inoculating 650,000 people by the end of March, it’s now facing what is known as the “Peltzman Effect” — lowering one’s guard in a risky situation. Ironically, this is mostly due to the vaccines.
2) University of Chicago economist Sam Peltzman first described this phenomenon in 1975 in which people adopt riskier behavior in response to visible safety measures like widespread vaccination. Credit goes to physician-scientist @EricTopol for tweeting about this recently.
3) Evidence is emerging of the Peltzman Effect in Quebec. On Saturday night, provincial and municipal police broke up an illegal gathering in a ski resort near Quebec City, fining 36 partygoers a total of $54,800. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/il…
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
7 Mar
1) During the second wave, Quebec has rejected air purifiers in classrooms, claiming these devices could be dangerous in the #pandemic. In this thread, I will show how those Montreal schools that did install air cleaners have reported fewer outbreaks involving the variants.
2) For this analysis, I’m indebted to the meticulous statistics compiled by Olivier Drouin of covidecolesquebec.org, who is a finalist for an international prize to be presented by DataHeroAwards.org. (Go vote for Olivier by clicking on this link: dataheroawards.org/tag/finalist-t… )
3) To date, a total of nine Montreal public schools have declared #COVID19 outbreaks involving suspected or presumptive variants, most likely the B.1.1.7 strain. Of the nine, seven schools do not have air purifiers, making them more vulnerable to #COVID19 contagion.
Read 12 tweets

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