1) Montreal authorities are alarmed by a sharp rise in cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in densely populated neighborhoods, where the positivity rate in the screening of COVID-19 samples has soared to as high as 25 per cent. Click on the link below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The chart below appears to show that Montreal has flattened the second wave in the #pandemic, thanks to public health restrictions and a #COVID19 vaccination blitz. This, of course, is truly welcome news, but the chart belies the lurking variants.
3) As I reported in my column in the @mtlgazette tonight, the variants are no longer proliferating in schools but in densely populated neighborhoods, too. Although authorities are quick to close schools with variant cases, what’s their plan for Montreal’s neighborhoods?
4) Health Minister Christian Dubé discussed the vaccine rollout Tuesday and Premier François Legault hinted Montreal’s 8 p.m. curfew will be re-evaluated as a result of the springing forward of daylight saving time Sunday. But what’s the plan for the variants in the community?
5) The last thing anyone wants in Quebec is the scenario now playing out in Europe, with both the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants driving surges in a number of countries, despite mass vaccinations. Please take a look at the chart below by the Washington Post.
6) Schools reopened on Monday after the March break, and it’s likely that #COVID19 variant cases will start going back up in this sector, especially in classrooms without air purifiers. What’s more, the curfew may be set at a later hour next week and then lifted.
7) Israel, with a population of 9 million, has administered more than 5 million doses to date. Following a precipitous drop in #COVID19 cases, Israel is opening bars and restaurants to those who have received their shots.
8) By comparison, Quebec with a population of 8.57 million, has given more than 581,000 first shots. The comparison with Israel would suggest that Quebec will likely have to remain very prudent for a while yet. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts.
Addendum: Back by popular demand, the @mtlgazette has resumed publishing my daily #COVID19 updates. I will link to them every weekday and add a few tweets each night. And on weekends, I will continue with my Twitter threads.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

12 Mar
1) More transmissible #COVID19 cases have now spread all over Quebec to an extent that was not known previously by the public, according to a newly released chart by Quebec’s health institute. Please click on my updated story below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The latest data by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) also reveal the region of Abitibi-Témiscamingue has more than double the number of confirmed cases of the B.1.351 variant as all of Ontario, 95 to 41. Image
3) This is worrisome for several reasons. For much of the #pandemic, Abitibi-Témiscamingue had been spared the ravages of #COVID19. In addition to confirmed cases of B.1.351, the region has another 56 presumptive cases, likely of the strain that arose in South Africa. Image
Read 8 tweets
11 Mar
1) Quebec declared for the first time Wednesday it has one case of the P.1 variant that’s been sweeping through Brazil, and revealed the number of cases of the B.1.351 strain from South Africa jumped by 54 to 94 in Abitibi-Temiscamingue. Please see below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Quebec may now be at another turning point in the #pandemic, with confirmation of the three variants of concern, as well as a strain from California. Still, it’s too early to tellwhether Wednesday’s uptick in #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations are due to the variants. Image
3) What we do know, though, is that the B.1.1.7 variant now comprises 20% of new #COVID19 cases in Montreal, up from about 15% since last week. And this increase has coincided with a rise in the number of outbreaks in the workplace. Please see the chart below. Image
Read 8 tweets
9 Mar
1) Ontario’s associate chief medical officer warned Monday the province is recording “quite a significant increase” in the number of #COVID19 cases screening positive for the more contagious variants of concern. In this thread, I will examine what this might mean for Quebec.
2) But first, let me turn to Quebec’s latest figures on #COVID19 variant cases. The province reported on Monday a cumulative total of 255 confirmed variant cases, up by 61, and 1,732 presumptive cases, up by 32 from Sunday. Please see the chart below.
3) What’s noteworthy beyond the general increase is that the Capitale-Nationale region confirmed two B.1.1.7 cases for the first time, as did the Montérégie. Also for the first time, Lanudière confirmed a B.1.351 case.
Read 10 tweets
8 Mar
1) As Quebec ramps up #COVID19 vaccinations and is likely to surpass its goal of inoculating 650,000 people by the end of March, it’s now facing what is known as the “Peltzman Effect” — lowering one’s guard in a risky situation. Ironically, this is mostly due to the vaccines.
2) University of Chicago economist Sam Peltzman first described this phenomenon in 1975 in which people adopt riskier behavior in response to visible safety measures like widespread vaccination. Credit goes to physician-scientist @EricTopol for tweeting about this recently.
3) Evidence is emerging of the Peltzman Effect in Quebec. On Saturday night, provincial and municipal police broke up an illegal gathering in a ski resort near Quebec City, fining 36 partygoers a total of $54,800. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/il…
Read 10 tweets
7 Mar
1) During the second wave, Quebec has rejected air purifiers in classrooms, claiming these devices could be dangerous in the #pandemic. In this thread, I will show how those Montreal schools that did install air cleaners have reported fewer outbreaks involving the variants.
2) For this analysis, I’m indebted to the meticulous statistics compiled by Olivier Drouin of covidecolesquebec.org, who is a finalist for an international prize to be presented by DataHeroAwards.org. (Go vote for Olivier by clicking on this link: dataheroawards.org/tag/finalist-t… )
3) To date, a total of nine Montreal public schools have declared #COVID19 outbreaks involving suspected or presumptive variants, most likely the B.1.1.7 strain. Of the nine, seven schools do not have air purifiers, making them more vulnerable to #COVID19 contagion.
Read 12 tweets
5 Mar
1) Quebec on Friday reported that #COVID19 variants of concern are not only increasing rapidly but spreading geographically into new regions of the province. In this thread, I will examine the implications of this with the imminent reopening of schools.
2) In a chart below released Friday by Quebec’s public health institute, the Laurentians have gone from reporting zero confirmed cases of the super contagious B.1.1.7 variant to 10. Also worrisome is the sudden appearance of a B.1.351 variant case in this region.
3) B.1.351, which originated in South Africa and for which vaccines are less effective, first made its appearance in Quebec in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. There are now 40 confirmed cases in that region. B.1.351 popping up in the Laurentians suggests inter-regional transmission.
Read 11 tweets

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