1) Quebec declared for the first time Wednesday it has one case of the P.1 variant that’s been sweeping through Brazil, and revealed the number of cases of the B.1.351 strain from South Africa jumped by 54 to 94 in Abitibi-Temiscamingue. Please see below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Quebec may now be at another turning point in the #pandemic, with confirmation of the three variants of concern, as well as a strain from California. Still, it’s too early to tellwhether Wednesday’s uptick in #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations are due to the variants.
3) What we do know, though, is that the B.1.1.7 variant now comprises 20% of new #COVID19 cases in Montreal, up from about 15% since last week. And this increase has coincided with a rise in the number of outbreaks in the workplace. Please see the chart below.
4) Meanwhile, Montreal’s rolling seven-day average of #COVID19 cases inched up to 17.92 cases per 100,000 residents from 15.5 the day before. Given the presence of B.1.1.7 in the metropolis, it’s hard to tell whether cases have plateaued. See the chart below.
5) During the first and second waves in the #pandemic, #COVID19 did cause outbreaks in some hospital emergency rooms in Montreal. This time around, ER overcrowding is worse, and the variants are on the loose. Please take a look at the chart below.
6) What’s also different this time around are the vaccines. To date, 214,000 Montrealers, or more than 10% per cent of the city's population, have been inoculated with mostly first shots. Experts have suggested at least 70% vaccine coverage to achieve collective immunity.
7) So it really is a race of the vaccines against the variants. Under such circumstances, Montreal deserves every tool in its arsenal to fight the #pandemic. Again, I cannot understand why Quebec won't approve the installation of air purifiers in poorly ventilated classrooms.
8) To conclude, Montreal added three more #COVID19 fatalities to a death toll of 4,553. For context only: the city of Paris (where the variants are surging) is now reporting more daily #pandemic deaths than Montreal, posting 11 more Wednesday for a total of 3,343. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

12 Mar
1) More transmissible #COVID19 cases have now spread all over Quebec to an extent that was not known previously by the public, according to a newly released chart by Quebec’s health institute. Please click on my updated story below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The latest data by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) also reveal the region of Abitibi-Témiscamingue has more than double the number of confirmed cases of the B.1.351 variant as all of Ontario, 95 to 41. Image
3) This is worrisome for several reasons. For much of the #pandemic, Abitibi-Témiscamingue had been spared the ravages of #COVID19. In addition to confirmed cases of B.1.351, the region has another 56 presumptive cases, likely of the strain that arose in South Africa. Image
Read 8 tweets
10 Mar
1) Montreal authorities are alarmed by a sharp rise in cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in densely populated neighborhoods, where the positivity rate in the screening of COVID-19 samples has soared to as high as 25 per cent. Click on the link below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The chart below appears to show that Montreal has flattened the second wave in the #pandemic, thanks to public health restrictions and a #COVID19 vaccination blitz. This, of course, is truly welcome news, but the chart belies the lurking variants.
3) As I reported in my column in the @mtlgazette tonight, the variants are no longer proliferating in schools but in densely populated neighborhoods, too. Although authorities are quick to close schools with variant cases, what’s their plan for Montreal’s neighborhoods?
Read 9 tweets
9 Mar
1) Ontario’s associate chief medical officer warned Monday the province is recording “quite a significant increase” in the number of #COVID19 cases screening positive for the more contagious variants of concern. In this thread, I will examine what this might mean for Quebec.
2) But first, let me turn to Quebec’s latest figures on #COVID19 variant cases. The province reported on Monday a cumulative total of 255 confirmed variant cases, up by 61, and 1,732 presumptive cases, up by 32 from Sunday. Please see the chart below.
3) What’s noteworthy beyond the general increase is that the Capitale-Nationale region confirmed two B.1.1.7 cases for the first time, as did the Montérégie. Also for the first time, Lanudière confirmed a B.1.351 case.
Read 10 tweets
8 Mar
1) As Quebec ramps up #COVID19 vaccinations and is likely to surpass its goal of inoculating 650,000 people by the end of March, it’s now facing what is known as the “Peltzman Effect” — lowering one’s guard in a risky situation. Ironically, this is mostly due to the vaccines.
2) University of Chicago economist Sam Peltzman first described this phenomenon in 1975 in which people adopt riskier behavior in response to visible safety measures like widespread vaccination. Credit goes to physician-scientist @EricTopol for tweeting about this recently.
3) Evidence is emerging of the Peltzman Effect in Quebec. On Saturday night, provincial and municipal police broke up an illegal gathering in a ski resort near Quebec City, fining 36 partygoers a total of $54,800. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/il…
Read 10 tweets
7 Mar
1) During the second wave, Quebec has rejected air purifiers in classrooms, claiming these devices could be dangerous in the #pandemic. In this thread, I will show how those Montreal schools that did install air cleaners have reported fewer outbreaks involving the variants.
2) For this analysis, I’m indebted to the meticulous statistics compiled by Olivier Drouin of covidecolesquebec.org, who is a finalist for an international prize to be presented by DataHeroAwards.org. (Go vote for Olivier by clicking on this link: dataheroawards.org/tag/finalist-t… )
3) To date, a total of nine Montreal public schools have declared #COVID19 outbreaks involving suspected or presumptive variants, most likely the B.1.1.7 strain. Of the nine, seven schools do not have air purifiers, making them more vulnerable to #COVID19 contagion.
Read 12 tweets
5 Mar
1) Quebec on Friday reported that #COVID19 variants of concern are not only increasing rapidly but spreading geographically into new regions of the province. In this thread, I will examine the implications of this with the imminent reopening of schools.
2) In a chart below released Friday by Quebec’s public health institute, the Laurentians have gone from reporting zero confirmed cases of the super contagious B.1.1.7 variant to 10. Also worrisome is the sudden appearance of a B.1.351 variant case in this region.
3) B.1.351, which originated in South Africa and for which vaccines are less effective, first made its appearance in Quebec in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. There are now 40 confirmed cases in that region. B.1.351 popping up in the Laurentians suggests inter-regional transmission.
Read 11 tweets

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