1) Ontario’s associate chief medical officer warned Monday the province is recording “quite a significant increase” in the number of #COVID19 cases screening positive for the more contagious variants of concern. In this thread, I will examine what this might mean for Quebec.
2) But first, let me turn to Quebec’s latest figures on #COVID19 variant cases. The province reported on Monday a cumulative total of 255 confirmed variant cases, up by 61, and 1,732 presumptive cases, up by 32 from Sunday. Please see the chart below. 
3) What’s noteworthy beyond the general increase is that the Capitale-Nationale region confirmed two B.1.1.7 cases for the first time, as did the Montérégie. Also for the first time, Lanudière confirmed a B.1.351 case.
4) Montreal represents by far the B.1.1.7 hot spot in Quebec, but variants have cropped up as well in a total of eight regions across the province. This suggests that the variants are spreading between the regions at a fairly fast clip.
5) But the situation is far more worrisome in neighboring Ontario. Even though Ontario’s population is 72% higher than Quebec’s, it has to date posted a cumulative total of 935 confirmed #COVID19 variant cases, or 266.6% greater than Quebec’s tally.
6) As for presumptive cases involving variants, Ontario has recorded 4,645 thus far, or 168% greater than Quebec’s total. There may be several reasons Ontario’s variant figures are so much higher than Quebec’s. Ontario is likely screening more #COVID19 samples than Quebec.
7) Regardless of the reasons Ontario’s figures are higher, the province may be on the cusp of an uptick in #COVID19 cases after a precipitous drop in the last few weeks. Please see the chart below. Could the same thing start happening in Quebec?
8) Quebec authorities are projecting an increase in the number of variant cases, especially since students returned to schools on Monday. In the past 11 days, a total of 45 schools have declared suspected or presumptive #COVID19 variant cases in Quebec. See the chart below.
9) But rather than dwell on the growing threat of the variants, Quebec authorities would prefer to accentuate the positives of the vaccine rollout. Quebec is expecting 113,000 doses of a third #COVID19 vaccine this week by AstraZeneca.
10) At the risk of creating a false sense of security, it appears Quebec would prefer to put the focus on dropping #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations, all of which is evidently good news. But Quebec lags behind Ontario in releasing comprehensive stats on variants. End of thread.
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