What is net-zero? Is it carbon neutral? CO₂ or GHG?
Did you know that 1.5°C scenarios reach net-zero CO₂ emissions around 2050, but net-zero GHG emissions around 2070?
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For a likely below 2°C scenario, the net-zero years are shifted back about 20 years.
In fact, many likely below 2°C scenarios don't require net-zero GHG emissions until after 2100.
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And why "net" and not just zero?
That is because it is hard to get all emissions completely to zero, & so some carbon dioxide removal is needed to clean up any remaining emissions.
The scale is important. How much CDR is possible?
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It is possible to have scenarios with much, much less Carbon Dioxide Removal, though very few of these are found in the scenario literature. We have a biased view!
Independent of the amount of carbon dioxide removal, rapid short-term emission reductions are essential.
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But we have to be careful people understand what net-zero is, otherwise we may "offset" our way to really high emissions & just create more climate problems.
Net-zero requires that you stop burning fossil fuels or emitting CO₂.
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That is a quick summary of my presentation on #NetZero.
Starts at 0830, but most will be in Norwegian. I will be in English at about 0845.
If we take a remaining carbon budget consistent with 1.5°C, then emissions need to drop rapidly. This curve converges to zero, there is no physical reason to have a straight line to zero.
(I took 580GtCO₂ from SR15 Table 2.2, not adjusted for time past)
IPCC AR5 WG3 (2014) had a figure showing the impact on mitigation costs of various technology restrictions (eg, no CCS).
It also compared lower energy demand (20–30% below baseline by 2050 & 35–45 % by 2100), first set of bars.
This 𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑 mitigation costs by half.
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The 'low energy demand' analysis enforced a reduction on demand, but did not evaluate the costs (ie, mitigation costs of reduced demand are assumed zero).
The analysis covers all major emitters
* China the only major nation with grow (+0.5%), with end-of-year monthly emissions exciting 2019 levels
* USA: Down 9.4%
* EU27+UK: Down 7.5%
* India: Down 8.1%
The COVID declines build on top of preexisting trends.
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Transport was the major driver of change:
* Ground transport was 37% of the decline
* International transport was 28%, despite representing 2-3% of global emissions
The power sector was 18% of the decline, but monthly emissions are already back to 2019 levels (globally).
3. Comparing 2011-2015 with 2016-2019 (global stocktake), CO₂ emissions have
* Declined in 64 countries: -0.16GtCO₂/yr
* Increased in the remainder: 0.37GtCO₂/yr
* Net increase: 0.21GtCO₂/yr
But emission reductions need to ramp up to 1-2GtCO₂/yr 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫...
1. The @IEA is out with estimates of fossil energy CO₂ emissions for 2020:
* Primary energy down ~4%
* CO₂ emissions down 5.9% or 2GtCO₂
* Coal down 4%
* Oil down 8.6%
2. Our latest estimate (from yesterday) is 4.9% down. The main difference is in oil. Our method may not have picked up the drop in international bunkers. Time will tell...
"The reason we’re net zero is that we have this enormous renewables business ... all the avoided emissions that come with that" compensate for emissions in other investments.
Houston, we have a problem... This from climate finance champion Carney.
2. "Most large asset managers have a renewable energy fund. Simply having one does not make you net zero. ... Such commitments are not credible & represent greenwashing" @bencaldecott
3. "It’s virtually impossible for a company to be a net-zero company now" @FarsanAlexander
"It won’t matter how many solar panels one installs if we don’t reduce actual CO₂ emissions." @UlfErlandsson