1/10 - France -Mar 18 to Mar 24-
#COVID19 is in green nor in orange zone nowhere, while plateauing/deteriorating (red zones) everywhere.
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

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2/10 - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes is experiencing an increase, at high level, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/10 - Corsica is plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), with high level of mortality, for 7 more days.
4/10 - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur is plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.99), with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
5/10 - Nouvelle Aquitaine is experiencing an increase at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
6/10 - Pays-de-Loire are experiencing an increase, at high levels, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.06), with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
7/10 - Bretagne is experiencing a rise, at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
8/10 - Hauts-de-France are experiencing an increase at high levels in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.06), and are increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.
9/10 - Ile-de-France is experiencing a rise, at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), while plateauing in mortality, at high levels too, for 7 more days.
10/10 - Martinique is experiencing a rapid and worrying surge, at medium levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.29), with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

Réunion is plateauing (0.96); Guyane (1.22) is leaving its safety zone; Guadeloupe (0.96); Mayotte (0.73)
11/10 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100...
12/10 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

19 Mar
1/9 - Le 28 oct 2020, le Président Macron annonce un confinement et un changement radical de stratégie française de riposte contre la pandémie, les quatre piliers de la stratégie de suppression sont alors évoqués :
1. “L’objectif est de passer de 40000 à 5000 contaminations/j.”
2/9-“La stratégie de tests de dépistage et de traçage des contacts sera redéployée une fois le pic épidémique passé”;
3.“Nous devons collectivement déployer beaucoup plus massivement l'application TousAntiCovid” et,
4.“L'isolement des personnes positives doit être plus efficace.”
3/9 - Le 1er décembre, l’objectif visé n’est pas atteint (plus de 10000 cas/j rapportés), mais la révision de la stratégie française n’est à partir de ce moment plus jamais rappelée. La stratégie de tests n’est pas revisitée, l’App. peu promue et l’isolement reste inefficace.
Read 9 tweets
19 Mar
1/22. Mar 19 to Mar 25 -
Daily #COVID19 epidemic forecasting for 192 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/22. Portugal is the 1st EU country that has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone (<4.29 cases/100K pop/day), and will stay in it (R-eff=0.81), with low to very low - by next mid-week - levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
4/22. The UK will be shortly landing in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.96), close to reach it, decreasing in mortality too, from medium to low - by next weekend - levels, for 7 more days.
>40% of its population vaccinated so far. ImageImage
Read 24 tweets
19 Mar
1/8 - Switzerland -Mar 19 to Mar 25-
#COVID19 isn't in green zone anywhere, improving (orange) in Jura, while deteriorating (red zones) in most of the 25 cantons.
Data: zh.ch/de/politik-sta…
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/8 - Valais is experiencing an increase at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), with no expected mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/8 - Geneva is experiencing a rise, at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), with no expected mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
19 Mar
1/11 - France -Mar 19 to Mar 25-
#COVID19 isn't in green zone anywhere, orange in Alpes-Maritimes, while plateauing/deteriorating (red zones) in 95 mainland Départements.
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/11 - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes is experiencing an increase, at high level, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/11 - Corsica is plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), with high level of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 13 tweets
18 Mar
1/4 - La saisonnalité de la #COVID19 est très probable, on en a profité l’été dernier en Europe, mais elle n’est pas “automatique” : en zone tempérée, la saison joue un rôle de frein (de l’ordre de 0,6 x R effectif), mais pas nécessairement un blocage sur les virus respiratoires.
2/4 - Pour la grippe, dont le R0=1,5, l’été ramène le R effectif sous la valeur 1, donc est bloquant. Pour #SARSCoV2 dont le R0=3 (voire plus avec les nvx variants), ce n’est pas suffisant, il faut des freins additionnels (gestes barrières, mesures de confinement, immunité,...)
3/4 - L’été, en zone tempérée, ce n’est pas juste la température et l’humidité, c’est aussi plus d’UV, plus d’ensoleillement, plus d’activités dehors, plus de fenêtres ouvertes, une nutrition différente, plus de vacances, moins d’écoles,...
Read 4 tweets
18 Mar
1/22. Mar 18 to Mar 24 -
Daily #COVID19 epidemic forecasting for 192 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/22. Portugal is the 1st EU country that has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone (<4.29 cases/100K pop/day), and will stay in it (R-eff=0.77), with low to very low - by the weekend - levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Spain (Re=0.91) is not far from its safety zone too. ImageImage
3/22 - Norway (and Finland), European champions in fighting #COVID19 are experiencing a surge (plateau) in incidence, at high (medium) levels, R-eff=1.24 (1.03), with very low (low) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Iceland benefits from #ZeroCovid strategy, with no death. ImageImageImage
Read 24 tweets

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