Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/10 - France -Mar 18 to Mar 24-
#COVID19 is in green nor in orange zone nowhere, while plateauing/deteriorating (red zones) everywhere.
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

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2/10 - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes is experiencing an increase, at high level, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/10 - Corsica is plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), with high level of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/10 - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur is plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.99), with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/10 - Nouvelle Aquitaine is experiencing an increase at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/10 - Pays-de-Loire are experiencing an increase, at high levels, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.06), with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

7/10 - Bretagne is experiencing a rise, at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

8/10 - Hauts-de-France are experiencing an increase at high levels in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.06), and are increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

9/10 - Ile-de-France is experiencing a rise, at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), while plateauing in mortality, at high levels too, for 7 more days.

10/10 - Martinique is experiencing a rapid and worrying surge, at medium levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.29), with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

Réunion is plateauing (0.96); Guyane (1.22) is leaving its safety zone; Guadeloupe (0.96); Mayotte (0.73)

11/10 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100...

12/10 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0