Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/22. Mar 19 to Mar 25 -
Daily #COVID19 epidemic forecasting for 192 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/22. Portugal is the 1st EU country that has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone (<4.29 cases/100K pop/day), and will stay in it (R-eff=0.81), with low to very low - by next mid-week - levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/22. The UK will be shortly landing in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.96), close to reach it, decreasing in mortality too, from medium to low - by next weekend - levels, for 7 more days.
>40% of its population vaccinated so far.

5/22. Ireland has stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.99), at medium level of activity, while slowly decreasing in mortality, at medium levels, for 7 more days.

3/22 - Norway (and Finland), European champions in fighting #COVID19 are facing a surge (plateau) in incidence, at high (medium) levels, R-eff=1.22 (1.03), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Iceland benefits from #ZeroCovid strategy, with no death.

6/22. Italy is experiencing a third wave, increasing at high levels since Feb 14, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), and increasing again in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

Croatia (1.18), Austria (1.09), Greece (R-eff=1.07) in similar situations.

7/22. Belgium is facing a #COVID19 3rd wave (R-eff=1.14), rising at high level, with high level of mortality, for 7 more days.

Regional details for France here:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1372870994478653444?s=20

Denmark (1.15), Netherlands (1.10), France (1.10, reliability?), in similar situations.

8/22. Germany (and Switzerland) are both entering in their #COVID19 third wave, R-eff=1.14 (and 1.09), at medium level of activity, while plateauing in mortality, at high (and low) levels, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1372932257518911489?s=20

(details for Swiss cantons)

9/22. Czechia is taking over control of (while Bulgaria is still rising in) their #COVID19 epidemic activity, R-eff=0.93 (1.18), at high levels, and increasing in mortality, both at alarming levels.

Ukraine (1.14) and Serbia (1.10) in similar situations.

10/22. Hungary (and Poland) are experiencing a rise at high levels since early Feb, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, R-eff=1.16 (1.17), increasing in mortality, at alarming (very high) levels, for 7 more days.

Bosnia-Herzegovinia (1.22), Slovakia 0.97) in close situation

11/22. Libya is experiencing an increase, at medium levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), and is plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

12/22. Namibia is plateauing, just above its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.91), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Tunisia (0.95) is in similar situation.

13/22. South Africa has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone and will stay in it (R-eff=0.98), decreasing in mortality at medium levels, for 7 more days.

14/22. Jordan is experiencing a new wave with a rise at high levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Israel is landing towards its safety zone (0.64), close to reach it, decreasing at medium levels of mortality.

15/22. Russia is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.95), close to reach it, while plateauing at high levels in mortality, for 7 more days.

16/22. Vietnam (and Thailand), two Asian champions in fighting #COVID19, will both remain in their safety zone - new cases<1 case/100Kpop./day - with no foreseen deaths (or very low mortality), in the 7 upcoming days. #ZeroCovid

China, Taiwan, Singapore in similar situations.

17/22. Japan (and South Korea), two other Asian champions in fighting #COVID19 will both remain in their safety zone,with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Pakistan, Nepal, India, Bangladesh in similar situations. Philippines (Re=1.24) are leaving their safety zone.

18/22. Canada is plateauing, at medium levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), plateauing at low level of mortality, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1370689573467131904?s=20

(Forecast for 4 provinces in the thread)
Nova Scotia,New Brunswick #ZeroCovid green zones.

19/22. The USA are slowly landing towards their #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.95), at medium levels of activity, and slowly decreasing in mortality, still at high levels, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1368144320361099266?s=20

(Forecast for 9 states in the embedded thread.)

20/22. Brazil is experiencing an increase at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), and is increasing in mortality too, at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

Chile (1.07) in similar situation, although with high mortality levels.

21/22. Uruguay, champion of the first waves, is now experiencing a rise at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.17), while plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

22/22. Australia (and New Zealand), two Pacific champions in fighting #COVID19 will both remain in their safety zone with no expected death, for 7 more days.
Both countries are experiencing successful #ZeroCovid strategy.

23/22.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
Read forecasting for other countries by following:
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
...

24/22.
"Champion" country: mortality < 20 cumulative deaths per 100K pop

Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low < 0.10
0.10 < Medium < 0.20
0.20 < High < 0.50
Very high > 0.50
Alarming > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0