Thread by @pmdfoster

🚨🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚛🦐🍫🥐🚛🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨 From Prawns to Pork to the NI Protocol it’s clear that the biggest issue from #brexit is caused by EU plant/food rules - is it time now to rethink? Or if not, why not? And then what? Stay with me. /1

on.ft.com/3s4DfNo

So we all know @DavidGHFrost negotiated a sovereignty-first #Brexit that prioritised taking back control of our laws over market access....but that fell particularly hard on food exporters and THICKENED the Irish Sea trade border, causing many of the woes on the Irish Protocol /2

@DavidGHFrost Lord Frost described his thinking in terms of the Magna Carta tradition at this week's @Policy_Exchange event with @michaelgove, saying that the English instinctively don't like it when ​“other people set laws we have to live by”. /3

(See 14 mins in)

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove These are abstract concepts but the resulted in concrete impacts, in the absence of any agreement covering food standards, resulting in mountains of paperwork...71 pages for a lorry load of fish, cost (for example) salmon farmers £11m in Jan/Feb /4

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove It is also by FAR the biggest headache in the Northern Ireland Protocol as experts explained to the @CommonsNIAC this week, which is adding to the community stress/frictions in NI that the Government says it wants to end /5

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/2b…

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC That is why the government, per Frost, took unilateral action to safeguard Northern Ireland's fragile politics by extending grace periods under the Protocol - to the fury of Brussels.

But there is one "Unilateral action" that would REALLY fix it? A Swiss-style SPS deal /6

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC This is not a 'new' idea, but as every days goes by it becomes more self-evident that it is a good idea.

@SamuelMarcLowe outlines here why, but essentially it does away with Export Certificates (vet stamps etc) and massively simplifies exports /7

cer.eu/sites/default/…

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe It is true - as Sam says - this would require the UK to dynamically align with EU rules and I can hear you screaming "they'll never do it! have you not been listening these last four years!" - and I agree - but we should at least ask "why not?" /8

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe Answer 1: "we're sovereign, why would do that?"

Except that this would be a 'sovereign decision', from which the UK could withdraw as/when it saw fit. Lots of treaties require that. Aren't the Swiss 'sovereign'? /9

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe Answer 2: It's politics, all those voted for #Brexit will cry 'betrayal'!

Really? If the first three months of this year has shown anything, no-one in the real world gives a stuff about this stuff. Except businesses impacted and folk in Northern Ireland. /10

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe Is Frost's Magna Carta Brexit defined by rules on pork and prawns?

Is anyone really sitting in the pub, thumping the bar and moaning that their Magna Carta rights have been traduced because Cornish lobstermen are following EU phytosanitary rules? I’d hazard not. /11

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe Answer 3: It'll stop us doing a trade deal with the USA.

True, but a) is that deal happening any time soon under a Biden administration. Answer 'no'.

And b) will the UK government every give the US what it wants on food standards do such a deal? (unlikely). /12

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe And remember, if the UK did suddenly decide it was wanted a US deal (and the political hangover from hormone raised beef, chlorine wash chicken etc) then it could end a EU-UK deal, accepting fallout - which we've just had a taste of /13

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe As I said, I'm not betting that given what has been invested in the Magna Carta #Brexit that common sense would prevail - but I am saying that this move really wouldn't impede 'Global Britain' or trade deals with anyone other than the US (per @SamuelMarcLowe) so why not? /14

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe Because our trade has been growing rapidly with the US without a trade deal, and that trade deal (which isn't happening any time soon) is by the UK govts own estimate going to increase GDP by 0.16% /15

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe The costs of not acting we have already seen a) for UK seafood and meat/food exporters as set out here by @edbarkerAIC
and frequently explained by @scotfoodjames and...more importantly even.. /16

https://twitter.com/edbarkerAIC/status/1370321860580237317

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe @edbarkerAIC @scotfoodjames The impact on Northern Ireland. Don't forget that the DUP lobbied the UK govt for just such a Swiss-style deal last summer...but were rebuffed. And @StephenFarryMP of centrist @allianceparty is calling for just such a deal /17

edm.parliament.uk/early-day-moti…

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe @edbarkerAIC @scotfoodjames @StephenFarryMP @allianceparty What will happen? Well, hope against hope that a Swiss-style deal starts to make sense - perhaps even as a platform for ERG types to argue that the Irish Protocol is no longer required (a stronger argument if an SPS deal is in place) and promote ideas like Mutual Enforcement/18

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe @edbarkerAIC @scotfoodjames @StephenFarryMP @allianceparty More likely, when the TCA committees convene there WILL be space for sectoral/selective 'SPS' linked agreements - shorthand a "New Zealand-style" approach, but that is a LOT more limited. It could simplify some paperwork, reduce checks but it's a LONG way from Swiss deal /19

@DavidGHFrost @Policy_Exchange @michaelgove @CommonsNIAC @SamuelMarcLowe @edbarkerAIC @scotfoodjames @StephenFarryMP @allianceparty But given the TCA committees haven't met yet, don't hold your breath. Until then, exporter pain - and political strain for Northern Ireland - continues.

Good weekend all. ENDS