krakek Profile picture
20 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
An interesting blog entry, with the caveat that it begins with questionable reporting (as @steffanwatkins mentions) on the GPS systems.

Makes one wonder about the extend the security discourse and actions are affected by the internal influence operations.
Otherwise a decent take on the challenges in optimising the security posture.

My 50 cents would be that scale matters, being able to deploy an Army Group (or atleast strong Corps) is different to the ability to deploy a mass of brigades such force would be composed out of.
And this devolution in scale can also lead to a dangerous devolution in training and skills of military leaders and staffs.
Last but not least - pure air space attack does not win wars against most adversaries as they adapt either before such occurs (Serbs) or afterwards (networked islamists).

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More from @krakek1

21 Mar
I think in addition to the inertial scenario (ie modest improvements to modest Moscow BMD) there may be concerns about a grander push for BMD.

Now which elements may form this greater BMD set up?

A thread:

1/10
First lets talk sensors.

Over the recent past Russian system has nearly completed two complimenting above horizon radar layers for EW (Voronezh-M/VP and DM) as well as pushed the EW space based sensors (and comms) through IOC, with beyond horizon EW radar layer underway. 2/10 ImageImageImage
In addition to this there are some programs that appear to be BMD related in terms of sensors, those are:
Voronezh-SM (L-band)
MRIK-VKO/80P6 (S-band)
Volga modernisation
Multiband Yakhroma radar set (Crimea, possibly Chukotka) 3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets
16 Feb
A short thread.

If Yahroma is a meter band radar on the lines of Voronezh-M/VP it would make sense for it to be built in Sevastopol as well as in Chukotka (KMZ courtesy of @russianforces) as the coverage there for that band is nonexistant. 1/
Same would apply to the "high potential dm-band" site announced for Murmansk area - that is where the gap in Voronezh-DM radar coverage happens to be.

As such those two new sites (M/VP-like in Sevastopol and DM in Murmansk) would complete dual band EW coverage. 2/
So far Yahroma appears to be an improved stand alone Voronezh-M/VP based on the recent interview (tass.ru/interviews/106… courtesy of @KomissarWhipla) rather than a missile defence specific radar as previously speculated. 3/
Read 6 tweets
12 Jan
Some context on the earlier discussion.

Below you could see polygon formed by the Alaskan missile defence site and the two relevant Russian EW radars.

(sorry for the quality, middle part of this horrible polygon is ~200km high above sea level)
As you could see missile defence interceptors from Alaska are unlikely to enter the radar coverage even if they fly optimal ballistic trajectories.

So the only sensor capable of detecting them would be EKS/Kupol or possible future radar at Chukotka.
Read 5 tweets
12 Jan
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…

TASS source allege that Yakhroma radar to be planned for deployement in Chukotka.

Previously radar of this type was reported to be planned for construction in Crimea and speculated to be related to missile defence.
Such a radar forward deployed in Chukotka, with 270 degree sector may be there to provide coverage for the region, possibly for US BMD interceptors as other radars are deployed to south-west.

Or for some BMD function.

That is if TASS did not make this up.
Read 5 tweets
10 Nov 20
A short refresher thread on the legacy Russian NC3.

First, there was a supporting system for the NCA, which allowed the President (and the MoD) to communicate with the military and to release the unlocker codes for the launches.

Unlocker codes are then pushed down to launchers.
Proprietary ownership by civilians was/is important because it ensured that only the relevant civilian authorities can order the launches, military authority would not have the unlocker codes.

My understanding is that Perimeter also receives them as a part of pre-delegation.
Then the orders would go through the service specific NC3 systems, Signal-A and Vyuga for the SMFs, the former was a hierarchical system to support the standard chain of command from the Central CP of SMFs onwards mainly.
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct 20
Food for thought, over 2020s we may see a trend of existing S400 regiments (30+ of them) being reinforced with S500 divizions, which would lead to addition of ~180+ engagement channels focussed on MRBMs, IRBMs and possibly with some ICBM capability. 1/6
This force may provide not only a system for strategic defence against sub-ICBM BMs (ie from Middle East and elsewhere, as those proliferate), but also some capability against the potential HGV and other similar threats.

But I would expect this to be overshadowed... 2/6
In the discussions by their potential to form a second echelon in terms of strategic defence against ICBM threats, together with new EW means and exo-atmospheric interceptors.

But all three would probably be one of the drivers behind marketing it as an S400 upgrade package. 3/6
Read 7 tweets

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