Thread by @krakek1

I think in addition to the inertial scenario (ie modest improvements to modest Moscow BMD) there may be concerns about a grander push for BMD.

Now which elements may form this greater BMD set up?

A thread:

1/10

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1373597656912629762

First lets talk sensors.

Over the recent past Russian system has nearly completed two complimenting above horizon radar layers for EW (Voronezh-M/VP and DM) as well as pushed the EW space based sensors (and comms) through IOC, with beyond horizon EW radar layer underway. 2/10

In addition to this there are some programs that appear to be BMD related in terms of sensors, those are:
Voronezh-SM (L-band)
MRIK-VKO/80P6 (S-band)
Volga modernisation
Multiband Yakhroma radar set (Crimea, possibly Chukotka) 3/10

Those sensors could support the missile defence shooters deeper inside of Russia and for 80P6 can be relatively quickly deployed on new threat axis. 4/10

In terms of those shooters we may be looking at a two tier system by 2030, with the upper tier being formed by Nudol&co (there is a good deal of confusion there) and lower by S-500. 5/10

While the former is likely to stay within the same scale as the current Moscow BMD system in terms of interceptors (under 100) the later, if say ~25 S-400 regiments are hybridized with Abakan-likes could provide 150 (or more) engagement channels across the country. 6/10

With, again the focus on Moscow.

The drivers of those programs do not even need to be found in UK strategic programs, they could be explained by ballistic missile proliferation, ie in the MENA region. 7/10

And last but not least yes, it appears that there are some efforts in the "silo APS" direction, as this would improve silo survivability and compliment existing counter measure (jammer/obscurant) sets up already in place (as seen on YaRS silos) against the PGM threat 8/10

I doubt however that the silo APS is the big concern for the UK, as, atleast to my best knowledge, UK is either value or leadership focussed. 9/10

Which leads me to the final idea - the growth if indeed the targetting did not change may be explained... by the Russian COG/COOP/civil defence development, of new command posts, dispersal areas, various leadership (including normal non hardened ie on the Black Sea) sites. 10/10