New: according to the @ONS the total UK #COVID19 death toll has now surpassed 125k.
Was 126,023 as of 29 Jan.
Note these are deaths where #COVID19 was mentioned on the certificate. Of those deaths, around 91% were caused by #COVID19, according to the @ONS.
Another way of calculating the death toll is excess deaths, which is deaths from all causes vs the five year average.
This was 111,540 across the UK between March 2020 and late Jan 2021.
Total deaths from all causes in week 4 of 2020 (the latest week) were higher than in the corresponding week of ANY year going back to 1970.
That’s still true even after adjusting for population.
31 deaths per 100k in week 4
Previous worst week 4: 28 per 100k in 1985
The red lines here are deaths in Eng/Wales each week in 2020/21.
Grey lines show you what happened in previous years.
As you can see, deaths in first few weeks of 2021 were high but not as high as in some harsh flu seasons.
But unlike then, deaths have not fallen but stayed high
While the excess death toll is still mounting, the UK has actually dropped out of the top ten countries in the Economist’s international excess death toll comparisons amid new data abt the scale of losses elsewhere.
This pattern will prob continue as more data emerges

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More from @EdConwaySky

22 Jan
I’m dearly hoping govt releases some actual data on the lethality of the new variant.
Holding a press conference to announce this ominous news alongside vague caveats about uncertainty is not a functional way to share this news
Nor was leaking it to journalists ahead of the event
There’s an irony here: @uksciencechief just told us to be a bit wary of the reports coming out of Israel warning abt the efficacy of single dose #COVID19 vaccines.
Why? Because of a lack of data.
Yet here he is making equally significant claims without providing the data.
Argh!
This episode underlines a deeper problem: a culture of data secrecy in Whitehall & NHS.
There are vast datasets that are never publicly released. Sometimes secrecy is justified to protect privacy.
Rest of the time there’s no justification for it.
This is public data. OUR data.
Read 7 tweets
22 Jan
Here's a short story about numbers, #COVID19, the scientific process and the misuse of science. And how it affects all of our lives. But it begins with these blokes, sitting in a wood-panelled room in the heart of the City of London. These are the men who decided the "gold fix".
For nearly a century the gold price was set in London in the room in a building on St Swithin's Lane. Twice a day the five men would meet in that room, call their trading rooms and, between them, settle on the price of the precious metal lbma.org.uk/assets/blog/al…
There's a long tradition of seemingly definitive numbers actually being decided in backroom meetings. Another example: LIBOR, product of a bankers' conference call (u know how that story ended).

Lesson: Most ppl pay attention to the number.
Far fewer to the process of forming it
Read 26 tweets
15 Jan
My @thetimes column about the most important economic issue no-one is talking about: the collapsing fertility rate. Not long ago the UK had one of the highest fertility rates in Europe. Not any more. This could have ENORMOUS consequences... thetimes.co.uk/article/bed703…
These two @ONS charts tell you the story. Up until 2012 the total fertility rate (eg no of children per woman on avg) was just under 2. By late 2020 it was 1.6. It has NEVER been that low. This pre-dates #COVID19. It is a trend. But one which v few seem to have taken on board.
Sidenote: it’s quite plausible that 2020 is the first year since the 1970s (and one of the only on record) that deaths outnumber births in England & Wales. We won’t know for a bit but both look like being just over 600k. Depressing milestone.
Read 12 tweets
11 Jan
Where does #COVID19 rank in the most depressing league table of all - the one comparing historic pandemics? We won't know for sure until the pandemic is over but we do now have enough data to draw some early conclusions. I've done some digging into the numbers:
I should say that I began this process unsure of what I'd find. Back in the spring I looked back at historical weekly deaths figs and found that while the 2020 levels were horribly high (and unprecedented seasonally) some weeks of Hong Kong flu were worse.
The weekly deaths numbers only go back so far. But we now have data for the 52 weeks of 2020 up to Christmas Day, which is enough to make a conservative estimate of how 2020 compares with history. And we have nearly two centuries of data to compare it to…
Read 20 tweets
10 Jan
Duncan is right. Lockdown rules are slightly softer. More key workers. More COVID-compliant workplaces.
It feels v plausible there’s less compliance this time around but is that really clear cut from mobility data alone?
Also worth bearing in mind in lockdown 1 there’s lots of evidence that many households & businesses went above & beyond the rules. Eg key workers not sending children to school even tho they could. Firms (esp construction) shuttering tho rules said they could continue working…
When I take a (completely unscientific but perhaps no less unscientific than some of the hot takes out there) glance at the data I’d say: less movement than autumn lockdown but more than last spring. That doesn’t seem too far detached from the severity of the rules themselves
Read 5 tweets
6 Jan
There will doubtless be lots of attention on this number tonight: 1k #COVID19 deaths for first time since last spring.
Now, a lot of people are dying, the number is mounting and this is clearly awful news.
BUT be cautious about this fig. It comes back to the bank holiday effect…
As I said yday, testing and deaths registration is affected by xmas and new year - and that’s happening with this data. The 1k deaths figure is not deaths happening in the past 24 hours but deaths REPORTED in that period. An important distinction when gauging #COVID19 spread
In the case of tonight’s 1k deaths figure, almost one in four of them happened more than a week ago: there’s a big backlog of registrations which are only now being processed. The real picture is the red line in this chart. Not the grey line (where that 1k fig comes from)
Read 5 tweets

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