Thread by @Sakura509

"Regardless of why, Yes supporters began March facing a slew of polling placing the independence movement on the back foot."

"But two recent polls suggest this decline may have halted."

"At the beginning of March, polling showed that No had a one- or two-point lead. Over the weekend, an Opinium poll for Sky News showed Yes with a two-point lead, and today’s BMG Research poll for The Herald shows Yes ahead by four points – 52% to 48%."

All these results are within the margin of error, meaning that if a referendum were held tomorrow the result would be too close to call. But that this has been the situation since the beginning of March suggests that the decline in Yes support has halted.

"In the same vein, support for the SNP has been steady throughout the past few weeks. All polling so far in March places the SNP’s constituency vote within the margin of error of 49%."

"The first poll of March, by Panelbase, put SNP support on 47%. Today’s BMG Research poll puts it on 48%."

"In January, a YouGov poll found that 59% of Scots had a favourable opinion of Nicola Sturgeon."

"At the beginning of March, YouGov found that figure was now 57%. And over the weekend, Opinium also found that favourability towards the First Minister sat at 57%, and that the same proportion of Scots approve of the way she is handling her job as First Minister."

"So, while there have been declines in support for the SNP since late 2020, that decline also appears to have halted."

"This levelling out of Yes and SNP support (at a higher level than the party won in 2016), and unchanged, highly positive sentiment towards Nicola Sturgeon, has occurred amid constant committee leaks and headline allegations against the First Minister."

"That there hasn’t been further slippage is a testament to the SNP and Yes movement’s remarkable political staying power, and the enduring popularity of Nicola Sturgeon personally."

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