Thread by @sandhyaravishan

A bit puzzled over the #PTprePollSurvey2021 that was released last night. #Thread

I would request mindless trolls not to get onto my timeline. Welcome genuine feedback from real humans. Happy to be corrected if I am wrong.

Here we go. (1/n)

Sample size is troubling?

5 zones, 20 districts, one AC in each district, 10 locations in each AC and 25 samples in each location. Is that around 5000 samples overall? (I am bad at math, please correct if I am wrong).

A state as complex as TN warrants more sampling. (2/n)

The poll itself was done between Feb 18 and March 15. The majority of the poll seems to have been done before #Sasikala decided to "withdraw" from politics. Much water has flown since then - manifestos, campaign, candidate announcements etc. The poll doesn't capture these. (3/n)

There was an inane question about #COVIDー19 but okay, let's forgive that. Next is a question about perception of people about the AIADMK-BJP alliance. Fair enough. But no corresponding question asked about the DMK-Congress alliance. Strange? (4/n)

Next question is - what do you think will help DMK come to power? This question is troubling on two fronts - (1) It inherently implies that DMK is coming to power; (2) A similar question is not asked about the AIADMK+ front. (5/n)

Most of the poll was done before #Sasikala stepped back, fine. The next qn is - If Sasikala became Gen Secy of AIADMK, would you support this? I am struggling to understand this qn. Is it about Sasi impact on elections? Or a poll to choose Gen Secy for AIADMK? (6/n)

Then comes the question on the incumbent. Rank the current EPS government on a scale of 10. Okay but what does it actually tell us? What's the difference between 1,2,3 or 4,5,6 or 7,8,9? No takeaways from this! (7/n)

Ok next. Question is - In the case of a multi-cornered contest in your seat, who would you choose? Erm, I thought there are at least 4 fronts in each constituency? Not counting independents. Framing of question is puzzling. Unable to figure this out. (8/n)

Oops totally forgot this gem. What do you support - farms laws or farmer protests? Good question. Except that of the entire sample polled, only 6% were farmers. So this 81.20% that is seen in the pic is not exactly the voice of farmers. (9/n)

Next - preferred CM candidate. Good question. But Sasikala? I am sure PT knows she cannot imagine being CM for the next 6 years. Why would you include her as a candidate? Also what is that option - Nallavarukku??? Flummoxed. (10/n)

Rest of the predictions seem summarily okay. But how any party/front will get over 150 seats in a waveless election is beyond my understanding. Still, we will take the poll at face value. Thanks for reading. Have a nice day. (n/n)

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