I'm struck by the parallels between this and Brexit: in both cases, there's a failure to accept that making rules for your state doesn't mean being able to make rules for other states

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

1/
In the asylum case, Patel is suggesting that 'illegal' entries by asylum-seekers will result in rapid removal from UK

But removal to where?

How do you get other (even 'safe') states to accept what are, under international law, people who are within their rights to be in UK?

2/
Likewise, Brexit debate has been about 'taking back control', but that can't mean 'forcing others to accept whatever you want', only 'asking others to see what they'll agree to'

3/
This is the fundamental fallacy of the 'take back control' narrative: it suggests not simply the removal of external impositions, but a deeper empowerment to do whatever you like

Sounds great, but not a realistic understanding of the world as it is

4/
tl;dr overselling, under-delivering, leading to ever more disillusionment with politics/politicians

/end
Or as Michael Heseltine put it:

"The man in the desert is free. He has sovereignty, but he has no power."

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More from @Usherwood

16 Mar
So how does #IntegratedReview see the EU?

Mainly as a problem that's been solved, and then as base from which to build wider international action by UK

Neither part of this looks that robust

1/

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Johnson's foreword sets the tone: Brexit is done, so off we go!

2/
The 'PM's vision for 2030' reiterates how hunky-dory everything will be with the EU, rounded out by strong engagement in NATO

3/
Read 16 tweets
15 Mar
In interests of balance, I'm now thinking about EU's UK policy and why it doesn't work

tl;dr dominant position compromises longer-term goal of bringing UK back into stable relationship

1/
To recap: at one level, EU can feel it's done a stand-up job with Brexit

- protected members' interests
- didn't have to compromise on red lines
- secured legally-binding commitments from UK
- UK keeps having to come back to those commitments

2/
In large part, this comes from dominant position that EU holds, as larger party in process

Yes, UK has significant capacities, but can't escape econ/pol/geopol weight of EU system

3/
Read 12 tweets
15 Mar
Thinking again about the UK's European policy and why it doesn't work

tl;dr EU doesn't think UK has a credible alternative to making things work in long-run

1/
To recap, since Johnson's entry to No.10, UK has not only picked at the scabs of the Brexit process, but has actively sought out points of conflict and tension

IMB; non-implementation; unilateral delays; EU Ambo status; EU office in NI; etc; etc

2/
Today's announcement about EU starting dispute proceedings against UK is unsurprising, in the context, and much more likely to result in UK giving way than the EU

3/
Read 15 tweets
4 Mar
How does yesterday's UK announcement to unilateral extend grace periods compare to previous challenges to WA/TCA?

1/
Well, like IMB and COM's mention of Art.16, this has not yet come into effect, so it's still more potential than actual

However

2/
COM was looking to use a power it actually held under Art.16 (albeit not following proper procedure and with poor political judgement about acceptability)

UK in both IMB and now is seeking to overturn legal obligations under the treaties

3/
Read 11 tweets
9 Feb
Another fun TCA problem: UK seems to think EU is completing its ratification this month

Which it's not
A reminder: TCA itself only has provisional application lasting to end Feb, unless either full ratification completed, or mutual agreement to extend in Partnership Council
UK has completed its arm of ratification, while EU accepted EP needed more time to look at it all properly, before giving its formal approval

However: EP can only vote on this in plenary
Read 11 tweets
3 Feb
Basic problem with Gove's letter to Šefčovič is not the identification of issues, but the connection of these with failure of Protocol (thus necessitating possible use of Art.16)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Evident in remedies proposed

1/
First four remedies are extensions of grace periods, because UK hasn't put in place necessary systems

2/
Fifth remedy also seems to be 'just give a moment to come back to you with ideas'

3/
Read 5 tweets

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