Do we need to see people “dropping dead in the street” to be in a pandemic? Absolutely not!
A projection of the impact of an *unmitigated* spread of the virus was a UK death toll of around half a million deaths. That’s *roughly* the same number as die each year normally.
The age distribution of COVID-19 deaths is *roughly* the same as the ordinary distribution of deaths which allows us to do a simple rule of thumb. If we had completely let things get out of control then we would each have seen one COVID death for each death we normally see.
That’s hardly people “dropping dead in the street” is it! For many younger people it’s very unusual to experience a loss of someone close to them. They would be even less likely to have lost someone to COVID, even in this uncontrolled scenario.
What have we actually seen in practice, with strict social distancing measures?
Since the start of the pandemic there have been 110,800 more deaths than we’d normally expect in a year.
That means one extra death, for every five deaths you would normally experience in a year.
Maybe Helena is talking about 2021 only... saying we are no longer in a pandemic, rather than that we never had one? So far in 2021 deaths are 27% above the recent average.
That means one extra death, for every four deaths you would normally experience between Jan and March.
I’ve made some simplifications. COVID deaths skew older than normal. So younger people are even *less* likely to have experienced loss to COVID than these numbers show.
Still, I hope it clear that a pandemic doesn’t have to look like a Hollywood film to be real and deadly.
This week, for the first time in 6 months, ONS reported slightly fewer deaths than normal. That is surely a consequence of lockdown and the incredible vaccine rollout.
As we cautiously relax restrictions it is more important than ever to understand what the data is telling us.
The tweet has been deleted it seems. I guess that means the thread has done it’s job. In case anyone thinks my response unduly harsh, here’s are the words so you can judge for yourself.
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@hughosmond@COVID19actuary Yes, non-COVID deaths have been below expected levels since late May. The shortfall is increasing as we approach the usual winter peak. This suggests that a fair number of those who died in April / May would have been unlikely to survive this winter. We can estimate how many...
@hughosmond@COVID19actuary CMI reported 63,500 excess deaths to week 24 (mid June). This fell through summer and had risen again during the second wave, reaching 70,300 excess deaths to 11 December.
So excess deaths increased by 6,800 despite 23,600 additional COVID deaths. A “shortfall” of 16,800 deaths.
@hughosmond@COVID19actuary This suggests that around one quarter of those who died during the initial peak might have died by now of other causes. That is far fewer than some were suggesting at the time (there was talk of it being a majority, which actuaries were quick to challenge).
The latest @ICNARC intensive care weekly report has been published. A short thread to summarise, including a link to the full report.
The report covers critical care admissions to 20 November and compares the second wave (1 Sep onwards) to the first. 1/9
The report now covers 4,869 patients from 1 September. Critical care outcomes are reported for 3,293 of these patients.
Most second wave admissions in the North of England and the Midlands. Interesting to compare and contrast locations with first wave. 2/9
Figure 13 compare all pneumonia admissions in recent years to 2020 (with this years admissions split between COVID and other). It’s clear that relevant admissions this year (orange plus blue lines) are many times higher than normal in both the first and second waves. 3/9
The latest @ICNARC intensive care weekly report has been published. A short thread to summarise, including a link to the full report. The report covers critical care admissions to 15 October and compares the second wave (1 Sep onwards) to the first. 1/10
The report now covers 1,233 patients from 1 September. Of these, 643 have outcomes reported and 590 are still receiving critical care.
Most admissions in the North of England and the Midlands. However, allowing for size of local population N. Ireland and London look bad. 2/10
Table 1 summarises patient characteristics, showing how these compare with the first wave.
As before, seven out of ten ICU admissions are males, with most aged 50-80. 3/10
They’re back! The intensive care national audit & research centre (@ICNARC to its friends) has resumed weekly reporting in response to rapidly rising ICU admissions.
A short thread follows in which I’ll draw out key content and add some comments. 1/n
Déjà vu? Newer followers might be unaware that I used this data six months ago to challenge the myth that COVID-19 is only a risk to those who were already “at death’s door”. That thread went a bit viral, with all manner of interesting consequences! 2/n
One positive outcome was an improved relationship between actuaries and the intensive care community. A tangible example is the commitment to @ICS_updates from @COVID19actuary that we would continue to highlight the impact the COVID-19 on intensive care units. 3/14
Latest COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths data for England has been published.
Daily admissions rose rapidly this week, exceeding 300 on Wednesday for the first time since mid-June.
The increase in the moving average implies doubling time of 10-11 days. (1/4)
Based on recent hospital admissions data it looks like the R number was around 1.4 at the end of the first week in September. Over the next week or two we’ll see the impact of schools reopening, but also local lockdowns and other restrictions. (2/4)
Average daily COVID-19 hospital deaths in England has increased from under five on 31 Aug to over 25 in recent days.
For more discussion see my recent @COVID19actuary bulletin which explains how we allow for reporting delays.