@hughosmond@COVID19actuary Yes, non-COVID deaths have been below expected levels since late May. The shortfall is increasing as we approach the usual winter peak. This suggests that a fair number of those who died in April / May would have been unlikely to survive this winter. We can estimate how many...
@hughosmond@COVID19actuary CMI reported 63,500 excess deaths to week 24 (mid June). This fell through summer and had risen again during the second wave, reaching 70,300 excess deaths to 11 December.
So excess deaths increased by 6,800 despite 23,600 additional COVID deaths. A “shortfall” of 16,800 deaths.
@hughosmond@COVID19actuary This suggests that around one quarter of those who died during the initial peak might have died by now of other causes. That is far fewer than some were suggesting at the time (there was talk of it being a majority, which actuaries were quick to challenge).
@hughosmond@COVID19actuary Following this logic, it is clear that the second wave is having a worse impact than many acknowledge. We are seeing significant excess deaths each week, despite the “drag” caused by non-COVID deaths being below normal levels.
@hughosmond@COVID19actuary Throughout the year, actuaries have been clear that excess deaths is the best measure by which to judge the impact of the pandemic. That is as true now, with excess death numbers below COVID death numbers, as it was when excess deaths were significantly higher.
@hughosmond@COVID19actuary Of course, this view could be seen as somewhat cold and detached. It gives no weight to the very real losses suffered by families who lost loved ones months before their time. It does however give us a clear and objective measure, which we have used throughout the year.
@hughosmond@COVID19actuary To date there have been over 70,000 excess deaths in the UK. That number will continue to rise in the coming weeks, as many more families lose loved ones before their time. We must hope that the vaccine roll out is a success, bringing an end to these excess deaths ASAP.
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The latest @ICNARC intensive care weekly report has been published. A short thread to summarise, including a link to the full report.
The report covers critical care admissions to 20 November and compares the second wave (1 Sep onwards) to the first. 1/9
The report now covers 4,869 patients from 1 September. Critical care outcomes are reported for 3,293 of these patients.
Most second wave admissions in the North of England and the Midlands. Interesting to compare and contrast locations with first wave. 2/9
Figure 13 compare all pneumonia admissions in recent years to 2020 (with this years admissions split between COVID and other). It’s clear that relevant admissions this year (orange plus blue lines) are many times higher than normal in both the first and second waves. 3/9
The latest @ICNARC intensive care weekly report has been published. A short thread to summarise, including a link to the full report. The report covers critical care admissions to 15 October and compares the second wave (1 Sep onwards) to the first. 1/10
The report now covers 1,233 patients from 1 September. Of these, 643 have outcomes reported and 590 are still receiving critical care.
Most admissions in the North of England and the Midlands. However, allowing for size of local population N. Ireland and London look bad. 2/10
Table 1 summarises patient characteristics, showing how these compare with the first wave.
As before, seven out of ten ICU admissions are males, with most aged 50-80. 3/10
They’re back! The intensive care national audit & research centre (@ICNARC to its friends) has resumed weekly reporting in response to rapidly rising ICU admissions.
A short thread follows in which I’ll draw out key content and add some comments. 1/n
Déjà vu? Newer followers might be unaware that I used this data six months ago to challenge the myth that COVID-19 is only a risk to those who were already “at death’s door”. That thread went a bit viral, with all manner of interesting consequences! 2/n
One positive outcome was an improved relationship between actuaries and the intensive care community. A tangible example is the commitment to @ICS_updates from @COVID19actuary that we would continue to highlight the impact the COVID-19 on intensive care units. 3/14
Latest COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths data for England has been published.
Daily admissions rose rapidly this week, exceeding 300 on Wednesday for the first time since mid-June.
The increase in the moving average implies doubling time of 10-11 days. (1/4)
Based on recent hospital admissions data it looks like the R number was around 1.4 at the end of the first week in September. Over the next week or two we’ll see the impact of schools reopening, but also local lockdowns and other restrictions. (2/4)
Average daily COVID-19 hospital deaths in England has increased from under five on 31 Aug to over 25 in recent days.
For more discussion see my recent @COVID19actuary bulletin which explains how we allow for reporting delays.
I suspected that today’s ONS life expectancy release would not be met with the usual fanfare, but I guess I hadn’t anticipated complete media radio silence.
Still, it’s not the most “pandemic appropriate” news. UK life expectancy is at a new high!
What’s the story? 1/7
UK life expectancy at birth is up by six weeks for males and seven weeks for females. Here’s the numbers direct from Ed at the ONS 👇
Crucially though, this is just updating National Life Tables to include 2019, which had record low death rates. 2/7