This is a long, wonky post, but it also includes the simplest explanation I could give of how #SilverLoading works and why a lot of people were eligible for $0 premium Bronze or *Gold* plans even before the #AmRescuePlan expanded them further.
In short: Here's some sample 2017 Bronze, Silver & Gold premium & enrollment data. Let's say 2018 medical trend went up 5%. Meanwhile, let's say 1/2 the enrollees received CSR help averaging $2,400 apiece.
That's $120M in CSR reimbursements owed to the carriers from the feds.
In late 2017, Donald Trump cuts off CSR reimbursements, figuring this will cause millions of low-income enrollees to lose their subsidies *or* for all the carriers to drop out of the ACA market (causing it to "blow up" and "collapse"), or both, to avoid eating a $120M loss.
INSTEAD, the carrier does something unexpected (by Trump, not by anyone who understands how the ACA works): They simply *jack up the premiums by enough to make up for the $120M which Trump was gonna stiff them out of*.
If they do this evenly, it's called Broad Loading, like so:
Broad Loading would mean EVERY plan (Bronze, Silver, Gold) would have their premiums jump by an ugly 23%. Some carriers in some states did this. However, MOST carriers in MOST states did something more clever: They dumped ALL of the "lost CSR cost" on Silver plans exclusively.
This is called #SilverLoading, and it looks like this: Bronze & Gold go up the normal amount, but Silver skyrockets by 33%. This is basically what happened in 2018.
Result? Bronze & Gold enrollees are held harmless by the CSR cut-off, while Silver enrollees are hosed, right?
Well, if it weren't for the #ACA's subsidy system, yes...but since most enrollees are subsidized, and the subsidies are based on the price of Silver plans, guess what happens instead? The subsidies go up by roughly the same amount to keep the net Silver price the same.
This also caused *another* very strange effect as well, however: the *Gold* plan now cost *less* than the Silver plan. Gold has just become a better value for many people. Furthermore, because the increased subsidies can be applied to Bronze, Silver *or* Gold...
...this means that a lot of people can get a Bronze plan for free, or a Gold plan for next to nothing (or even for free as well in some cases).
1. MILLIONS WHO DIDN'T QUALIFY FOR FINANCIAL HELP BEFORE DO NOW...AND IT COULD SAVE YOU *THOUSANDS* OF DOLLARS!
(and those who already qualified now qualify for *more* help!)
This table shows the financial help sliding scale under the #ACA (which cuts off help for middle-class enrollees)...and under the #AmRescuePlan, which covers 100% of the premiums for millions of people & caps them at no more than 8.5% *EVEN FOR MIDDLE-CLASS AMERICANS*:
As @selenasd just noted, and @KrutikaAmin reiterated, the only *official* COVID SEP enrollment tally from HCgov is 206K as of 2/28...plus scattershot data from a handful of state-based ACA exchanges.
My estimates suggest the national total was around 260K as of 2/28...
...or an average of ~18.5K per day. *IF* that pace has held true since 2/28, the national tally would be around 684,000 as of yesterday.
HOWEVER...since 2/28, the #AmRescuePlan passed the House, the Senate, the House again & was signed by President Biden on 3/12!
Actually, since Wyoming hasn’t expanded Medicaid, the only way this claim could be true is if the family in question saw their income go over *400* FPL, making them ineligible for ACA subsidies BEFORE the ARP was signed.
If that’s what happened, then: 1. Medicaid expansion is irrelevant to them anyway; 2. They’re the opposite of poverty-stricken; 3. The ARP solves that problem as well.
(NOTE: Earlier I questioned where @MehdirHasan got his $35B figure. That's been answered reasonably, but it also creates a *different* mystery: @USCBO says $22.8B. @JCTGov says $35.0B. Which is right, and why would they differ when they collaborated on the same score??)
Having said that, even w/JCT est. of $35B, @MehdirHasan still claimed it'd only cover "2M people for 6 mo" which would be $17.5K/6 mo or $35K/yr apiece.
Problem? The House version estimated *3M*, not 2, and the *Senate* version would cover FAR MORE people (thus the higher cost).
.@mehdirhasan is a great interviewer and is often dead-on target, but he (like so many others in the news media) MASSIVELY overstated the cost per enrollee of the #AmRescuePlan's COBRA subsidies last night (I'm still working on the post but this is key): acasignups.net/21/03/24/why-d…
Hasan claimed that the #ARP will spend $35B to cover "around 2 million" COBRA enrollees for 6 months.
$35B / 2.0M = $17,500 apiece. For 6 months.
If true, this would indeed be a massive waste of money, since employer policy premiums average ~$7,500 per *YEAR* per enrollee.
On the upside, claiming COBRA costs $35K/year is a lot better than claiming it costs $80K/year, I suppose. He only overstated the cost by 5.6x instead of 10.6, so I guess that's progress... acasignups.net/21/03/17/updat…