It's increasingly clear this is a real & very serious adverse effect.

In much of the world, use of the AstraZeneca vaccine still makes sense. The benefits still outweigh the risks.

That's not the case in Australia, and we should pivot to an alternative vaccine. #auspol
Australia doesn't have widespread community transmission. That means the AstraZeneca vaccine could harm more people than it helps - at this point in time.

This picture could of course change, if Australia were to experience a major wave.
But what about Europe, or the Americas? A case could be made for continuing to use the vaccine, but restricting its use to older age groups, who seem less likely to experience this adverse effect.

This is now the case in France or Germany.
Would I still take the vaccine if it were offered to me?

Yes! I don't want to end up in hospital with COVID-19 or get long COVID.

At the individual level, the risks are minimal.
But at the population level, some hard, utilitarian logic must be applied if your country is in the middle of a raging pandemic.

If there are no alternative vaccines, it unfortunately makes sense to use the AZ vaccine, even if a small number of people will experience harm.
This is yet another reason why an elimination strategy makes sense.

If your country does not have widespread community transmission, you are not forced to make these difficult choices.

Instead, you can wait for alternative vaccines to become available.

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More from @DrZoeHyde

29 Mar
The #Brisbane outbreak is the result of incompetence.

Doctors aren’t getting airborne PPE (P2/N95 respirators). If distance can be maintained, masks aren’t required at all!

SARS-CoV-2 is airborne, so why is Queensland following substandard guidance?
#BrisbaneLockdown #auspol
Additionally, the doctor at the centre of the Brisbane outbreak should have been vaccinated.

Currently, the greatest risk to Australia comes from overseas arrivals. We need to put a protective ring around the quarantine system, by vaccinating these Australian workers first.
Here’s a link to the infection control guidelines for Queensland.

Healthcare workers are routinely given inadequate protection - or perhaps no protection at all, if distance can be maintained!

This is inadequate for an airborne virus like SARS-CoV-2.
health.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/…
Read 9 tweets
24 Mar
I've just seen an editorial calling for people to be more polite on social media. Sounds good, doesn't it? I agree.

But there's some background to this piece that I think people ought to be aware of, because it looks to me like an attempt to re-write history.
In June last year, one of the authors of the editorial falsely accused me of misrepresenting the findings of a study.

Here's how the interaction played out:
This strikes me as hypocritical, given his own conduct.

In this study, Dr Munro said there was "no increase in death". That was so for younger adults, but not those aged >65, who had an increased risk of death from COVID-19.

That's quite an omission.
Read 10 tweets
20 Mar
(1/7) Pre-print study (interpret carefully) showing that monkeys infected with SARS-CoV-2 developed abnormal proteins in their brains (Lewy bodies) that are linked to the development of Parkinson's disease and a type of dementia.

H/T: @fitterhappierAJ.
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
(2/7) In this study, 4 rhesus macaques and 4 cynomolgus macaques were infected with SARS-CoV-2, and developed mild-to-moderate symptoms.

Lewy bodies developed in all 4 rhesus macaques, and one old cynomolgus macaque.

i.e., Lewy bodies developed in 5 of 8 monkeys.
(3/7) Animal studies do not always translate well (or even at all) to humans, and so these results need to be interpreted very carefully.

The monkeys also received a higher dose than most humans would likely be exposed to.
Read 7 tweets
19 Mar
(1/8) Study of 12 million adults in England, showing that living with children during the second wave was associated with an increased risk of testing positive or being hospitalised for #COVID19.

Risk of death was increased for adults aged >=65 years.
bmj.com/content/372/bm…
(2/8) In real terms, the effects were modest and equal to an extra:

40-60 infections (5-7% ⬆️) and 1-5 hospital admissions per 10,000 people for those living with young children; and,

160-190 infections (20-23% ⬆️) and 2-6 admissions (1-4% ⬆️) for those living with adolescents.
(3/8) The risk of dying from COVID-19 was not increased in people living with children who were aged under 65 years.

However, the risk of dying from *any cause* was less in people living with children.

There’s a very important reason for this. 👇
Read 8 tweets
15 Mar
Prediction: 2021 will be the year that COVID-19 becomes a disease of children.
Why do I predict COVID-19 will become a disease of children in 2021?

In developed countries, the majority of adults should be vaccinated by the end of the year.

But children probably won’t be, and so the virus will predominantly circulate in children and adolescents.
Additionally, many countries are still not doing enough to protect schools. There may even be pressure to completely end *all* public health measures once adults are vaccinated.

Under these conditions, the virus will spread unchecked in children and adolescents.
Read 4 tweets
14 Mar
(1/8) Important pre-print study (interpret carefully), estimating how long vaccination lasts.

A vaccine with an initial efficacy of 95% might drop to 58% after 250 days, but a vaccine with 70% efficacy could drop to 18%.

BUT: protection from severe disease may last much longer.
(2/8) First up, the authors found a strong association between the amount of neutralising antibodies a vaccine induces, and its efficacy.

Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2), Moderna (mRNA-1273), and Novavax (NVX-CoV2373) are in the top right corner.
(3/8) Based on the limited data for mRNA vaccines available to date, the authors estimated that the half-life for vaccine-induced antibodies (65 days) was similar to those produced by infection (58 days).
Read 8 tweets

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