The number of deaths from all causes in 2019 vs. number of deaths from or with Covid-19 in 2020-21.
The average age of a death by or with covid-19 is higher than life expectancy.
Deaths among those over 80 account for 69% of deaths by/with covid-19, but only 51% of all deaths (all causes) in 2019.
Canada – Case survival rates (= 100% - case fatality rate) by age.
(True survival rates based on IFR would be significantly higher.)
The 80+ age cohort accounts for 51% of all-cause deaths in Canada and 69% of deaths from or with Covid-19, but only 4% of the population.
In contrast, children account for 22% of the pop. but only 1% of all-cause deaths in Canada and 0% (0.02%) of deaths from or with Covid-19.
Among > 80 in Canada, there were 8,939 deaths of all causes in 2019 and 959 deaths from or with Covid-19 per 100,000 people in 2020-21.
In contrast, among children, there are 36 deaths of all causes in 2019 and 0 (0.07) deaths from or with Covid-19 per 100,000 people in 2020-21.
Here we have the total number of deaths in Canada over the past five years.
Zooming out nationally over the past decade, we see that it's natural for deaths in one year to exceed deaths in the previous year (blue line > 0%). Note that a year of low or negative growth is often followed by a year of much higher growth.
Here we have the chart you saw earlier now expressed as a rate per 100,000 people. Generally, a flatter trend in death rates would suggest that population growth may be a key factor driving growth in total deaths.
Across the decade, again we see that when we adjust for population growth, the growth trend is weaker but still there - the aging of the population is a primary factor. Deaths are rising in absolute and relative terms, suggesting a combo of population growth and aging.
Canada total weekly deaths Jan. 2010-Dec. 2020.
Here are deaths and death rates since 1900. Note how the death rate bottomed out in the early 1980s and has been rising steadily since, accelerating when the Baby Boomers started to reach their 70s in 2016.
Here are leading causes of death in Canada over the past 5 years.
Many recent deaths remain unclassified in the "information unavailable" column and will presumably will properly attributed over time.
Here is the same, presented as rates per 100,000 population to account for population growth.
A key question to address as this data evolves is the degree to which deaths attributed to covid-19 have substituted for deaths attributed to other causes.
Part of the increase in death in 2020 can be explained by the response to the pandemic (i.e., lockdown), rather than covid-19 itself.
The longer this goes on the less likely it is that the situation will remain peaceful. People can only be pushed so far. This may tear us apart even more and further polarize society.
I imagine something along the lines of 1968 but without the popular folk heros. The state and media will collude and go to any length to discredit those who fight back. They'll be branded as something close to terrorists. Public support will splinter.
1. ICUs aren't full. Ontario's largest city is at 80% (Green: below target of 90%)
2. ICUs aren't maxed out and have never been maxed out during covid. Additionally, most ICU patients don't have covid - there are other health matters that regularly drive people to the ICU. (And don't forget that lockdowns worsen human health.)
Ontario covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and testing.
Ontario covid-19 cases, deaths, and testing.
Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line). (Daily reported deaths divided by average daily cases over prior 28 days.)