➡️ 91% (95% CI 89-93%) efficacy against symptomatic infection.
➡️ 100% (88-100%) efficacy against severe disease as per the CDC definition (based on 32 cases); 95% (71-99%) efficacy as per FDA definition (22 cases, 1 in vaccine group).
Additionally, Pfizer also reported data from South Africa, in which 800 people received the vaccine.
Nine cases were detected in the placebo group, 6 of which were the South African variant.
No cases were detected in the vaccine group.
This provides tentative evidence that the Pfizer vaccine may be effective against the South African variant, although the confidence interval is wide (53-100%).
Minor correction: the second tweet in this thread should have said that 800 people were enrolled in the study in South Africa, not that 800 people received the vaccine.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
However, vaccines have better efficacy against severe disease than mild-to-moderate disease.
It’s therefore likely that efficacy against severe disease will be largely preserved, but we may see reduced protection with regard to transmission.
There is also the potential for reinfections to be more common with this variant, particularly for people who had only very mild COVID-19, and did not develop much in the way of neutralising antibodies.
We can clearly see the difference between people who have long COVID, and people who are controls, in this graph showing the proportion of people with persistent symptoms at the 5-week mark.
Blue = tested positive.
Green = controls.
The proportion of people who had persistent symptoms was lower at 12 weeks, which suggests improvement in many people.
This is to be expected.
However, a substantial proportion of people appear to be left with protracted symptoms.
Australia doesn't have widespread community transmission. That means the AstraZeneca vaccine could harm more people than it helps - at this point in time.
This picture could of course change, if Australia were to experience a major wave.
But what about Europe, or the Americas? A case could be made for continuing to use the vaccine, but restricting its use to older age groups, who seem less likely to experience this adverse effect.
Additionally, the doctor at the centre of the Brisbane outbreak should have been vaccinated.
Currently, the greatest risk to Australia comes from overseas arrivals. We need to put a protective ring around the quarantine system, by vaccinating these Australian workers first.
Here’s a link to the infection control guidelines for Queensland.
Healthcare workers are routinely given inadequate protection - or perhaps no protection at all, if distance can be maintained!
This strikes me as hypocritical, given his own conduct.
In this study, Dr Munro said there was "no increase in death". That was so for younger adults, but not those aged >65, who had an increased risk of death from COVID-19.
(1/7) Pre-print study (interpret carefully) showing that monkeys infected with SARS-CoV-2 developed abnormal proteins in their brains (Lewy bodies) that are linked to the development of Parkinson's disease and a type of dementia.