Thread by @tparsi

/THREAD/ Very good and welcomed news on the #IranDeal!

Given the deadlock and the disappointing pace of movement in the first weeks of Biden’s term. Here are a few thoughts on why it finally has happened and where we will go from here.>>

2. Privately, White House officials admit that how they fumbled the Iran file earlier on (my words, not theirs). But things have changed, the message is, and the US is now moving full speed toward a JCPOA return. We are now seeing the first signs supporting this narrative. >>

3. Over the past weeks, however, mistrust between the two sides has grown. The Iranians have watched in dismay how Biden has messaged that the JCPOA is not a priority and how coordination with Israel and assuaging hawks in Congress were. >>

4. This left them with the impression that either Biden wanted to use Trump’s maximum pressure sanctions as a bargaining chip or that he simply didn’t have the will to pay the price of taking on the opponents of the JCPOA in the US and the region. >>

5. At the same time, the US side saw a continuation of attacks in Iraq, a hardening of Iran’s public position as well as escalatory nuclear moves, and speculated that perhaps the window already has closed - Tehran doesn't want a return until after its Presidential elections.>>

6. For the last few weeks, the two sides have indirectly exchanged proposals on how to break the deadlock. The US proposals that have been mentioned in the media have all been lowballing the Iranians, which appears to have made matters worse.>>

7. Driving a hard bargain under these circumstances only further depletes trust and is counterproductive to the intermediate objective - starting direct talks. Indeed, from the outset, it was a mistake to turn what should have been a COORDINATION into a NEGOTIATION.>>

8. So why the breakthrough now? I suspect the US has wisely, behind the scenes, put forward a more robust proposal. No more lowballs. I doubt that when Russia’s Lavrov spoke of “positive movements” on the US side, he was referring to the lowball proposals.>>

9. Nor would Iran - given its political season - likely agree to this meeting next week unless something more robust was on the table. Moreover, US officials have told the NYT that they will “not seek to retain some sanctions for leverage” a la Trump>> nytimes.com/2021/04/02/wor…

10. This would jive with the most important breakthrough in the history of the JCPOA - the one secured in Oman in March 2013. This was where the real JCPOA talks began, and it was secured by the US putting on the table acceptance of enrichment in Iran.>>

11. But the US managed to keep that secret for years. In fact, most journalists covering the issue have yet to fully acknowledge this, and have instead explained the breakthrough as a result of the sanctions squeeze on Iran.>>

12. It was a clever move by the US to get real talks started, but also to avoid the backlash in DC over the fact that a major concession had been given to Iran. I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar happened here, but obviously on a much smaller scale.>>

13. (I detail what happened in Oman in Losing an Enemy: amazon.com/Losing-Enemy-O…)

14. But this is just the beginning of the process. As the Russian ambassador in Vienna said, “The impression is that we are on the right track but the way ahead will not be easy and will require intensive efforts.”

https://twitter.com/Amb_Ulyanov/status/1377922530665754624

15. The question is what the choreography will look like now. The US side prefers several coordinated steps that build to the final goal of full compliance-for-compliance. The Iranians prefer a quick, one-step process that immediately cuts to the chase.>>

16. There are arguments for both approaches. But Tehran is in a bit more of a time crunch because of its elections. A dragged-out process - just see how long it has taken to just get this meeting! - will make it highly vulnerable to attacks by JCPOA opponents.>>

17. This is true on both sides, but mindful of the Iranian elections, it is particularly vulnerable to politicization in Iran. It is frankly better for the US, imo, that the process is quick as the Iranian elections may cause a lot of unhelpful political posturing by Tehran. >>

18. Best thing is to get a quick choreography that binds both sides to full compliance, even though the steps may simply be binding decisions to do things within the next weeks. The actual steps may be taken later, but the BINDING DECISION TO TAKE THEM WILL BE MADE NOW. >>

19. That way, the JCPOA will be resurrected and protected BEFORE the Iranian elections - and not subject to the outcome of the elections.

This clearly lies in the national interest of the United States - as @JoeBiden himself has made clear numerous times.//