Following some hoopla that my tweet ππ» causedβ¦
1. I want to applaud all the medical workers in #Montenegro - epidemiologists, support staff, technicians, nurses, doctors - who are at the front line, caring for the many sick people in the hospitals around the country (π§΅1/10)
1. I want to applaud all the medical workers in #Montenegro - epidemiologists, support staff, technicians, nurses, doctors - who are at the front line, caring for the many sick people in the hospitals around the country (π§΅1/10)
https://twitter.com/marija_backovic/status/1376634196861591554
You are the unsung heroes!
I want to make sure that what Iβll say is #not meant to indicate that the #services you provide in π²πͺ are not good - I know that you are doing your very best, and I thank you from the bottom of my heart (2/10)
I want to make sure that what Iβll say is #not meant to indicate that the #services you provide in π²πͺ are not good - I know that you are doing your very best, and I thank you from the bottom of my heart (2/10)
*reminder: health services is not a synonym for health system
My comment that it doesnβt make sense to use #CFR (or as was referred to βlethalityβ) for comparisons between countries, and as a mirror of the quality of health system quality is based on the following facts (3/10)
My comment that it doesnβt make sense to use #CFR (or as was referred to βlethalityβ) for comparisons between countries, and as a mirror of the quality of health system quality is based on the following facts (3/10)
The #CFR (case fatality ratio) is, as you should know by now:
[(number of deaths)/ (number of βconfirmedβ cases)]
The number of confirmed cases depends on many factors.
[You can read more about this in @WHO @EuWHOEurope report available here bit.ly/3fCJMvb. (4/9)]
[(number of deaths)/ (number of βconfirmedβ cases)]
The number of confirmed cases depends on many factors.
[You can read more about this in @WHO @EuWHOEurope report available here bit.ly/3fCJMvb. (4/9)]
Now, the quality of health systems is one of the many factors, and Iβd want to believe that this is the only factor that has kept the CFR low in π²πͺ. In the best case scenario, this might be true, but the number of infected people is a reflection of how we are doing too (5/10)
Second - one can #not use the CFR to compare the performance of countries in the time of pandemic, as explained in the bulk of #epidemiology literature and for reasons explained for example here bit.ly/3cJso6e (6/10)
What is important to know is the #IFR (infection fatality rate), which is
[the (number of deaths)/ (number of βconfirmedβ + undiagnosed cases)].
You canβt calculate IFR unless you have serological data on disease prevalence in the country, you can only estimate it (7/10)
[the (number of deaths)/ (number of βconfirmedβ + undiagnosed cases)].
You canβt calculate IFR unless you have serological data on disease prevalence in the country, you can only estimate it (7/10)
The time will show what the #IFR in π²πͺ and I feel somewhat silly writing about this when we have some fantastic epidemiologists in @ijzcg who can explain this better.
Why not give them the podium and let them educate the public, as they did so well last year? (8/10)
Why not give them the podium and let them educate the public, as they did so well last year? (8/10)
For the end I will just repeat that yes, we have lost more than 1,300 lives in a country of 660,000 citizens, the #CFR per capita is high and this all breaks my heart.
So please wear masks and get vaccinated as soon as you can!
#VaccinesSaveLives #maska #ruke #distanca
(9/10)
So please wear masks and get vaccinated as soon as you can!
#VaccinesSaveLives #maska #ruke #distanca
(9/10)
One last clarification: making conclusions from complex data based on just one variable is called #cherrypicking. Nothing wrong with #cherrypicking per se, but might be misleading in understanding of a larger picture (10/10).
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