My Notes on Tamil Nadu Battlefield Part 5

This is a quick note. I normally do not indulge in poll speculations, but this time, I want to say with reasonable conviction that @AIADMKOfficial (NDA) will come back to power on May 2.

I just watched @KolahalasTV which referred to a
poll analysis published by @DemNetworkIndia predicting a clean win for NDA.

I support this analysis for the following reasons:

1. Stalin has done a stellar job since 2016, the election he had led from the front opposing JJ. Till date he has shown consistency with allies,
Kept his cadres energised, invested heavily in Social Media engineering.

To this end, support of 32 channels owned by his relatives and party helped.

2. However, losing Sunil Kanugolu put Stalin in great fear, and following his S-I-L Sabareesan, he hired PKP, which in fact
became counter productive -

a. because it brought down Stalin's stature as a leader who grew from the grassroots to a puppet pedicured and manicured by a corporate.

b. PKP only knows politics against @narendramodi . It was successful in 2019, but his campaign against EPS
backfired due to Sunil's counters from EPS's side.

So, PKP retrained his guns against BJP/ Modi again, leaving EPS to grow larger than life, which was a big mistake.

PKP greatly undermined TN voters by thinking they don't know the difference between LS and Assembly elections.
3. Stalin's credibility was affected due to his empty promises of unseating EPS for over 4 years, and hundreds of memes, steady exposé by NDA made Stalin almost look like he is the twin brother of RaGa in TN.

I still remember his speech in RK Nagar in 2017.
That Stalin was very different to the PKP Stalin.

His corporate events did not click with the masses. Stalin appeared among general crowds too late.

4. Senior leaders leaving a party is an indication of the ground reality. DMK lost quite a few especially because of PKP.
5. All his allies are weaker today than they were in 2016.

6. DMK has a fare share of Vanniyar votes which will go to EPS this time.

7. It's manifesto isn't spectacular. There is no equivalent of 'Colour TV' this time while Washing Machine and 6 Gas Cylinders will do it for EPS
8. The campaign run by NDA especially BJP exposing DMK as 'anti-Hindu' party started garnering sympathy and support.

This was not a cause even JJ used. Full credit to @Murugan_TNBJP

9. Attack on AIADMK's corruption also backfired with the psyche of TN mind reminiscing on the
last DMK regime which was fraught with corruption, power cuts, land grabbing, harassment of women, sand mafia, liquor mafia and so on.

10. Emergence of new gen leaders like L Murugan and @annamalai_k and their style of politics intimidated DMK and brought out the worst from them
Example, the fiery speech of Annamalai in Aravakkurichi a couple of days ago sealed the deal for his victory - something DMK could never anticipate.

There was this BJP star candidate who listened more than he spoke, and spoke of hope, not promises. Annamalai was winning any way.
He has campaigners travelling from all over the State and stationed in Aravakkurichi.

But all he needed was some face time - screen time in the main stream media run by the DMK group.

With the last speech, he got just that. All media on him now. DMK leaders talking about him.
No one from DMK expected him to speak against the Jama-at or walk into Pallapatti asking for Muslim votes quoting Modi's great work for Muslims.

Women of Pallapatti will vote for him.

They are seeing a real life hero, and DMK has no clue how to play the villain.
11. Kamal Hassan and Seeman even though are DMK allies for different reasons will only split DMK votes from the aspirational voting class which is about 34% roughly.

Look at who they campaign against in each constituency. It will vary.
12. Covid allowed Social Media to enter homes which were touched only ever by Sun TV networks.

With that, influencers like Maridhas, Madan, @karthikgnath , Arun Kumar, Bala Gowthaman, Jay Kay and a number of young, wise Dharmics entered Tamil homes.
13. Lastly, and most importantly, unbridled tongues of DMK leaders. I don't need to elaborate on this, as everyone knows how sentimental the issue is.

Tamil Nadu is a state that has a culture of respecting its women. These loose comments on women will be the end game for DMK.
So, DMK is losing not because of AIADMK rising, but because of DMK's own folly. It's own inherent weakness which shows why it couldn't cross the 3-digit figure for quite some time.

Let's hope it does not do it this time too.

Vande Mataram.

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More from @BaluSreevidya

4 Apr
My message on Kerala Battlefield - 2

This is a quick message before the polls. Will try to share my analysis in a few days.

During my discussion in Jaipur Dialogues a few months ago, I had speculated LDF win. Still see this the most probable scenario.

Kerala voters who support BJP show two clear trends:

1. Vote congress in a bid to keep LDF out
2. Vote for a winning party as BJP never had 'winning' image

We must stop this because this election is different.

No matter if you vote for Congress or BJP, LDF is likely to win
We are in a good situation now.

If LDF comes back to power, then in 5 years, BJP can grow as the main opposition and can go into 2026 elections as a winning party.

If UDF comes to power now, BJP will not only not have their voice strong in the assembly, but will be lost in the
Read 8 tweets
31 Jan
My Notes on Democracy Part 1


DlS5ENT is allowed in a democracy. Any democratic leader or government will uphold - and MUST uphold its citizens's right to DlS5ENT.

This thread analyses the recent Indian experience.
Some years ago, a western country displayed a movie on India in their visitor centre. Showed @Narendramodi the then Gujarat CM as a devil incarnate drinking the blood of MU5LlM.

A tough battle with the authorities resulted in taking down this video.
Lesson - this obscure country which Modi never visited till date has little to do with Indian politics. Yet, there is this need to stop Modi in his tracks of becoming the future PM by smearing him.

Most of you may have noticed Modi as a potential PM in the last decade.
Read 25 tweets
30 Dec 20
My Notes on Tamil Nadu Battle Field – Part 3


My short thread on RK was focusing on the challenges RK will face. Key points.

1. I said that if Rajini couldn’t enter the “Rajini” style, hen he won’t enter at all. His announcement yesterday reflects it.
2. His followers are not united by a cause or ideology but by the mutual attraction towards a hero.

This will cause issues going forward as their bond will have to be a continuous guidance and inspiration from their leader who couldn't spare that energy or time due to his health
I had predicted in my first thread in November that Rajini won't form a third front.

So, when RK announced his political entry, I was surprised for two reasons:

1. when he announced his entry in 2017 there was a political vacuum in Tamil Nadu.
Read 34 tweets
22 Dec 20
My notes on Kerala battle ground Part 1.


It will go through all the excruciating experiences minus the torture of TMC. Eventually lotus will bloom in every pond in Kerala.

Do you think the Communists didn't learn anything from Bengal?
Well, they did.

The early learning dawned on the Communists a decade ago is what Mamta's R0hingya experiments today are.

Communists learnt that they can prolong their existence for a time if they allowed a similar yet rising prophetic and m!L!t4nt outfit work with them.
It's almost like a relay race. The one that has run and is finishing handing over the baton to the new runner.

SDPl is the new runner in Kerala.

Mu5l!m League controls Congress and SDPl controls Communists.

Either way, Kerala is getting ready for l5l4m!c rule.
Read 18 tweets
15 Dec 20

I have tried to answer many questions individually through DM, but looks like it's better to do a thread and post it publicly.

This thread only looks at TN Politics through Rajini's entry angle. Will do a detailed post on the whole of TN pitch later.
Rajini's political entry can be analysed from 4 angles.

1. Why is he in Politics?
2. What will be his strengths?
3. How will the pitch change?
4. What will be his challenges?

Thread 1 - Why is Rajini in Politics and What are his strengths?
1. Why is Rajini in politics?

24 years ago, when he first considered politics, TN was a nasty scene with both Dravidian parties neck deep in corruption.

That was the first time Rajini openly participated in the political process, voicing against the corrupt regime of JJ.
Read 24 tweets
14 Dec 20

Counting is on 16 December.

Kerala's results for BJP will give sleepless nights for the conjoined Congress-Communist twins.


1. Like last time, RSS - which is the strongest in Kerala - played a key role on the ground

2. Good work at Booth level work, focus on critical mass for candidates, issue based approach for wards

3. Last time, BJP ate into Congress bastions, this time it will ALSO eat into Communist bastions

4. BJP has fielded 500 Xs and 112 Muslim candidates, a clear ward strategy
5. The struggles led by @surendranbjp have brought unexpected support from women who came to the streets to protest against the corrupt Communist government.

This is a clear signal of change in BJP's favour.
Read 4 tweets

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