Thread by @BaluSreevidya

My Notes on Tamil Nadu Battlefield Part 5

This is a quick note. I normally do not indulge in poll speculations, but this time, I want to say with reasonable conviction that @AIADMKOfficial (NDA) will come back to power on May 2.

I just watched @KolahalasTV which referred to a

poll analysis published by @DemNetworkIndia predicting a clean win for NDA.

I support this analysis for the following reasons:

1. Stalin has done a stellar job since 2016, the election he had led from the front opposing JJ. Till date he has shown consistency with allies,

Kept his cadres energised, invested heavily in Social Media engineering.

To this end, support of 32 channels owned by his relatives and party helped.

2. However, losing Sunil Kanugolu put Stalin in great fear, and following his S-I-L Sabareesan, he hired PKP, which in fact

became counter productive -

a. because it brought down Stalin's stature as a leader who grew from the grassroots to a puppet pedicured and manicured by a corporate.

b. PKP only knows politics against @narendramodi . It was successful in 2019, but his campaign against EPS

backfired due to Sunil's counters from EPS's side.

So, PKP retrained his guns against BJP/ Modi again, leaving EPS to grow larger than life, which was a big mistake.

PKP greatly undermined TN voters by thinking they don't know the difference between LS and Assembly elections.

3. Stalin's credibility was affected due to his empty promises of unseating EPS for over 4 years, and hundreds of memes, steady exposé by NDA made Stalin almost look like he is the twin brother of RaGa in TN.

I still remember his speech in RK Nagar in 2017.

That Stalin was very different to the PKP Stalin.

His corporate events did not click with the masses. Stalin appeared among general crowds too late.

4. Senior leaders leaving a party is an indication of the ground reality. DMK lost quite a few especially because of PKP.

5. All his allies are weaker today than they were in 2016.

6. DMK has a fare share of Vanniyar votes which will go to EPS this time.

7. It's manifesto isn't spectacular. There is no equivalent of 'Colour TV' this time while Washing Machine and 6 Gas Cylinders will do it for EPS

8. The campaign run by NDA especially BJP exposing DMK as 'anti-Hindu' party started garnering sympathy and support.

This was not a cause even JJ used. Full credit to @Murugan_TNBJP

9. Attack on AIADMK's corruption also backfired with the psyche of TN mind reminiscing on the

last DMK regime which was fraught with corruption, power cuts, land grabbing, harassment of women, sand mafia, liquor mafia and so on.

10. Emergence of new gen leaders like L Murugan and @annamalai_k and their style of politics intimidated DMK and brought out the worst from them

Example, the fiery speech of Annamalai in Aravakkurichi a couple of days ago sealed the deal for his victory - something DMK could never anticipate.

There was this BJP star candidate who listened more than he spoke, and spoke of hope, not promises. Annamalai was winning any way.

He has campaigners travelling from all over the State and stationed in Aravakkurichi.

But all he needed was some face time - screen time in the main stream media run by the DMK group.

With the last speech, he got just that. All media on him now. DMK leaders talking about him.

No one from DMK expected him to speak against the Jama-at or walk into Pallapatti asking for Muslim votes quoting Modi's great work for Muslims.

Women of Pallapatti will vote for him.

They are seeing a real life hero, and DMK has no clue how to play the villain.

11. Kamal Hassan and Seeman even though are DMK allies for different reasons will only split DMK votes from the aspirational voting class which is about 34% roughly.

Look at who they campaign against in each constituency. It will vary.

12. Covid allowed Social Media to enter homes which were touched only ever by Sun TV networks.

With that, influencers like Maridhas, Madan, @karthikgnath , Arun Kumar, Bala Gowthaman, Jay Kay and a number of young, wise Dharmics entered Tamil homes.

13. Lastly, and most importantly, unbridled tongues of DMK leaders. I don't need to elaborate on this, as everyone knows how sentimental the issue is.

Tamil Nadu is a state that has a culture of respecting its women. These loose comments on women will be the end game for DMK.

So, DMK is losing not because of AIADMK rising, but because of DMK's own folly. It's own inherent weakness which shows why it couldn't cross the 3-digit figure for quite some time.

Let's hope it does not do it this time too.

Vande Mataram.

https://twitter.com/BaluSreevidya/status/1331566155689979905