Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/22. Apr 05 to Apr 11 -
Daily #COVID19 epidemic forecasting for 192 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/22. Portugal (and the UK) have both landed in their #COVID19 safety zones, and will stay in them, R-eff=1.0 (and 0.80), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/22. Ireland (and Denmark) are plateauing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with R-eff=0.98 (and 1.0), at medium levels, and decreasing (plateauing) in mortality, from medium to low (low to very low) level, for 7 more days.

4/22 - Norway (and Finland), European champions in fighting #COVID19 have both taken over control of their epidemic activity with R-eff=0.92 (0.84), and low (medium) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Iceland benefits from #ZeroCovid strategy, with no case, no foreseen death.

5/22. Italy is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.93), at high levels, and plateauing in mortality at very high level, for 7 more days.

Cyprus and Greece (1.09), are increasing at high (very high) level, medium (very high) mortality.
Malta (0.55) improving.

6/22. Germany seems taking over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, R-eff=1.01 at medium level, with medium level of mortality, for 7 more d.

Austria is plateauing (1.02) at high levels of activity, and high level of mortality

Switzerland does not report during weekends.

7/22. France (and Belgium) are experiencing an increase at high level in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08 for both), and increasing in mortality at high level, for 7 more days.

New forecast for French regions:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1378980425968795648?s=20

LUX (1.07) in similar situation.

8/22. Czechia is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), although remaining at high levels of activity, and is decreasing in mortality too, with still alarming levels, for 7 more days.

Estonia (0.71), Slovakia (0.85) in similar situations.

9/22. Poland is plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.04), while is still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

Hungary(0.92), Bulgaria(0.98) plateauing, both with alarming mortality.
Ukraine (1.07) with very high mortality.

10/22. Croatia is experiencing a surge at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.21), and is increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

Bosnia-Herzegovinia is increasing (1.08), with alarming-very alarming mortality
Serbia is plateauing (0.96).

11/22. Tunisia is experiencing a surge, at medium levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.28), and is increasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

Libya (0.95) is plateauing at medium levels with high mortality.

12/22. Namibia is rising at medium levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), and is increasing in mortality, at high levels , for 7 more days.

13/22. South Africa has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone and will stay in it, plateauing in mortality from low to very low levels, for 7 more days.

14/22. Qatar is rising at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.17), with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more d.
Oman (1.21), Iran (1.16) are rising.
Iraq (1.05), UAE are plateauing at medium/high levels (1.02).
Jordan (0.86) decreasing.
Israel (0.41) safe.

15/22. Russia has almost stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.97), just above it, while plateauing at high levels in mortality, for 7 more days.

16/22. China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore five Asian champions in fighting #COVID19, will all remain safe, with no foreseen deaths, in the 7 upcoming days. #ZeroCovid .
Japan, South Korea, Nepal in their safety zones are facing pressure on their suppression strategy.

17/22. Philippines, (with India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan) are all experiencing a rise or surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activities, with R-eff=1.13 (1.21; 1.30; 1.11), at medium (low) levels, with very low levels of reported mortality, for 7 more days.

18/22. Canada is experiencing an increase at medium levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1378992367840149504?s=20

(New forecast for 4 provinces in the thread)
Nova Scotia, New Brunswick in #ZeroCovid green zones

19/22. The USA are plateauing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.04), at high levels, decreasing in mortality, from high to medium levels, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1378989365200830465?s=20

(New forecast for 9 states)

Mexico (0.91) in its safe zone, while high mortality.

20/22. Brazil seems to have reached its peak at high level in #COVID19 new contaminations (R-eff=0.93), while still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

Argentina (1.13), Colombia (1.21) at high levels, high mortality.
Uruguay (1.28), alarming mortality.

21/22. Chile, vaccinated>40% of its population, is experiencing an increase at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), increasing in mortality, at very high levels, for 7 more days.

Paraguay (0.93), Peru (0.94) plateauing at high level, very high mortality.

22/22. Australia (and New Zealand), two Pacific champions in fighting #COVID19 will both remain in their safety zone with no expected death, for 7 more days.

Both countries are experiencing successful #ZeroCovid strategy (with respectively 9 and 6 cases with no death).

23/22.
Credit photo (Łowicz-style Easter eggs): Michał Tuliński / Forum.

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

24/22.
"Champion" country: mortality < 20 cumulative deaths/100K pop

Very low: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low < 0.10
0.10 < Medium < 0.20
0.20 < High < 0.50
Very high > 0.50
Alarming > 1.0
Very alarming > 3.0
Read also:
@KristenN_06
& @elisa_manetti
...