@NewlinesInst launched our first episode of its "Contours" podcast series last Friday, but just in case you missed it: myself, @jeff_hawn, @eugenechausovsk, and @NicholasAHeras take a deep-dive into the #Russia's buildup along its border with #Ukraine.
newlinesinstitute.org/russia/is-puti…
newlinesinstitute.org/russia/is-puti…
#Russia has always had an interest in protecting its influence in Ukraine as an existential imperative in Eastern Europe, but we had to ask: why is the Kremlin acting now? What elements are driving the timing of this buildup along the border with #Ukraine?
@jeff_hawn noted that not only does a buildup align with #Russia's long-term imperatives of keeping #Ukraine in its sphere of influence, but that weather (it's warmer to deploy forces) and internal politics in Kiev (the shake-up of pro-RUS officials) drove the Kremlin to act.
As @NicholasAHeras asks, what really is the long-term 'game' Putin and the Kremlin plan to play here? I maintain that this isn't necessarily *just* about keeping Ukraine within Russia's immediate peripheral control, but this factors into its broader East European defense strategy
Both @eugenechausovsk and @jeff_hawn agree on this, assessing that this buildup is a signal that #Russia is serious about preparing for peer-to-peer conflict with its conventional rivals (NATO + US) in the region.
Despite the fears about buildup signaling that #Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive into #Ukraine, @eugenechausovsk notes that this is sensationalist. Rather, it's more of a long-term buildup along the border that's been a key part of the Kremlin's defense strategy.
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