Thread by @CarolineRose8

THREAD:

Tomorrow, American and Iraqi delegations will sit down for Strategic Dialogue talks.

This is a big moment for the #US-#Iraq relationship with a new Biden administration and accumulating security concerns in Iraq.

The talks are intended to cover shared #US and #Iraq mutual interests across a range of topics, such as improvements in trade, development, aid, Iraq’s education, industrial, and health sectors, climate issues, and of course, the elephant in the room: security.

The #Biden administration has not been very clear on their #Iraq strategy, despite campaign trail commitments to defeat #Daesh and the US missile strike on a Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and Kaitaib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS) compound near the #Syria-Iraq border over a month ago.

So, the talks come at an important time.

Before Biden’s inauguration, the Trump admin initiated a scale-down of 2,700 forces in just 2020 alone, in addition to transferring out of 8 bases in #Iraq in the face of increased projectile attacks from Iran-aligned PMF factions.

(Taking this moment to re-up the @NewlinesInst report I wrote outlining the security consequences of US consolidation and the work that’s left to be done to help maintain Iraqi sovereignty and human security.)
newlinesinstitute.org/iraq/in-the-wa…

Despite #US consolidation & a brief ceasefire between fall 2020 and the Biden admin's first days, these attacks on the US-led CJTF-OIR and partner Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) continue, racking further pressure on the US, coalition partners, & #NATO allies to adjust force posture.

But the #US isn’t the only one pigeonholed by Iraq’s #Iran-aligned militias.

Prime Minister Mustafa #Kadhimi and his political allies, #Iraq’s federal government, and the Kurdish Regional Government (#KRG) have also been targeted by PMF elements in recent months.

(Quick moment to re-up the piece my colleague @RashaAlAqeedi wrote about how armed groups have undermined an already-weak Iraqi government, forcing Prime Minister Kadhimi into a careful balancing act): newlinesinstitute.org/iraq/rhetoric-…

We’ve seen that even when there is a lull in attacks on US forces, IED and projectile attacks on Iraqi personnel, convoys, and defensive assets continue, signaling the long-term threat to Iraqi sovereignty and stability.

As evidenced by @sfrantzman here: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasour…

Ultimately, this all ties back to a greater need for the #US to re-adjust its Iraq policy and re-calculate its long-term objectives there.

There is an imperative for the #US to incrementally disengage from #Iraq to allocate our attention elsewhere (cough, cough: conventional theaters in Europe & Asia vs. great-power rivals), as argued by @tcwittes here: brookings.edu/research/what-…

However, this does not mean that Washington does not continue to maintain a key interest in protecting Iraqi human security and sovereignty and preventing a power vacuum from emerging. This is especially the case for the #US' short-term strategy in #Iraq and #MENA.

This will require some #US diplomatic heavy-lifting beyond just sticking to the status quo of countering #Daesh and tit-for-tac reactionary strikes with #Iran-aligned armed groups in #Iraq.

And it will require a reassessment of the #US-#Iraq relationship, divorced from the Trump administration’s Maximum Pressure Strategy, as I argue here for @NewlinesInst: newlinesinstitute.org/isis/iraq-caug…

The #US should urgently seek to develop a country-specific strategy with #Iraq, while accounting for #PMF malign activity during future #JCPOA negotiations, as @RashaAlAqeedi and I argued a month ago: newlinesinstitute.org/iran/iran-usin…

Also, there is a great need for the #US to support the Iraqi federal government with accountability measures towards #Iran-aligned militias with attacks on defensive assets, embassies, coalition locations, government buildings, and civilian populations in #Iraq.

This point on accountability was well put by @Mikeknightsiraq earlier last month. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

And as it seeks out avenues to curb Iran-supported militias operating in #Iraq, the #US should look to support Iraqi economic reform as a way to undermine armed groups’ exploitation of the Iraqi economy, as @RanjAlaaldin points out here: brookings.edu/blog/order-fro…

In sum, there’s a lot to be explored in tomorrow’s #US-#Iraq Strategic Dialogue talks.

Everything won’t be covered--some topics will get swept under the rug entirely--but it will be important for the #Biden administration to use this as a strategic opportunity...

....to form the basis of an Iraq-specific country policy and address the existing array of blind spots in the #US-#Iraq relationship.